The Value of leading at the 1st call on dirt

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Before I get into any of that Rollo - look at a horse like Haynesfield - he's been untouchable his entire career when he makes the lead ...blowing everything out.

He's nothing special when he doesn't make a lead...he's an undefeated monster when he does.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Before I get into any of that Rollo - look at a horse like Haynesfield - he's been untouchable his entire career when he makes the lead ...blowing everything out.

He's nothing special when he doesn't make a lead...he's an undefeated monster when he does.

I agree with you. Regal Ransom is pretty much like that, too. I think Left Bank was like that early in his career.

The situation with To Honor And Serve is probably different, as he's lightly raced and his style isn't exactly established (though in his maiden win, it appeared as though his jock had his "feet on the dashboard" to get him to settle 3rd early).

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

The situation with To Honor And Serve is probably different, as he's lightly raced and his style isn't exactly established

You could say the same about Uncle Mo as well.

The point is that no horse 'gets better' or even 'runs exactly as well' from off the pace than they would do on an unpressured lead going the same rate of speed.

Uncle Mo did show the ability to track a pace setter from his outside in the BC Juvie - but he switched off kindly and was a clear 2nd with no one even close to putting pressure on his outside.

To me - Uncle Mo and To Honor and Serve are both excellent 2-year-olds and are both running fast enough right now to contend for several recent KY Derby editions .. but each did it with a breathtakingly easy trip in their most recent start.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Before I get into any of that Rollo - look at a horse like Haynesfield - he's been untouchable his entire career when he makes the lead ...blowing everything out.

He's nothing special when he doesn't make a lead...he's an undefeated monster when he does.

Doesn't that just mean he's a horse who can't handle adversity?

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Doesn't that just mean he's a horse who can't handle adversity?

Those are the kind of horses that help make betting profitable. The kind that people on message boards don't like because they fold up in unfavorable situations...and aren't as effective when they don't get it their own way.

And when they do get it their own way and run huge - they often become overrated until their next clunker or series of clunkers.

[Betsy]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Those are the kind of horses that help make betting profitable. The kind that people on message boards don't like because they fold up in unfavorable situations...and aren't as effective when they don't get it their own way.

And when they do get it their own way and run huge - they often become overrated until their next clunker or series of clunkers.

Hopefully ordinary racetrack goers don't read the message boards so they continue to bet these horses, lol.

On the other hand, people also get impressed with horses that close a ton of ground..........even if those races were handed to them on a silver platter (the winner of that 2 year old 7 furlong race today, for example).

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Betsy

On the other hand, people also get impressed with horses that close a ton of ground..........even if those races were handed to them on a silver platter (the winner of that 2 year old 7 furlong race today, for example).

Yes - horses like Ice Box and Make Music For Me get rewarded for making up insane amounts of ground in a pace collapse ... both of them performed miserably in a much slower paced race like the Belmont.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Betsy

Hopefully ordinary racetrack goers don't read the message boards so they continue to bet these horses, lol.

On the other hand, people also get impressed with horses that close a ton of ground..........even if those races were handed to them on a silver platter (the winner of that 2 year old 7 furlong race today, for example).

Or like Zenyatta in the BC Classic...oh wait, she didn't win.