Roger Stein on Beyer on Zenyatta

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

It's a hell of a lot easier than people think.




I don't either - though it is obviously a factor I take into consideration.


However, perhaps you should.

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...35&postcount=1

Call me crazy ... but Funny Cide, Discreet Cat, Big Brown, Quality Road, Plagerist, Ghostzapper, Southern Image, Spanish Chestnut, and Pro Prado sure sound like a much more impressive collection of horses than ...

Uptowncharlybrown, Bear's Hard Ten, Sidney's Candy, Bulldogger, Sister Dawn, Kajiwara, Cowboy Gets Even, and Trappe Shot

I'm usually not going to post one that is a no-brainer to everyone. I didn't feel the need to post Uncle Mo. He obviously looked like a slam dunk to everyone. I did post Boys at Tosconova because I saw the race live and knew that most people probably hadn't seen it yet.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I'm usually not going to post one that is a no-brainer to everyone. I didn't feel the need to post Uncle Mo. He obviously looked like a slam dunk to everyone. I did post Boys at Tosconova because I saw the race live and knew that most people probably hadn't seen it yet.

There typically is very little to no betting value in those type of impressive maiden winners.

The real value comes when you can identify very underrated horses who are soundly beaten in lesser races - and don't have the best of forms going in.

There was a horse racing blog I believe called 'Trader Pete's Boom Boom Room' that was probably the best racing Blog in the land for all of the three or four days it was running.

Trader Pete did a single 'Horses to Watch' list after Saratoga's meet concluded. He only put one horse exiting a stakes race on the list .. Big Drama - who was beaten double digit lengths in the King's Bishop.

* Big Drama (4 races back, he was VERY fractious in the gate in the Preakness and held up start. He went head-to-head with Rachel Alexandra every step of the first five furlongs and stayed on to be beaten just 5.5 lengths.

2 races back, he opened up a 10 length lead through crazy fast fractions after just a half mile in the Wva Derby .. almost won anyway and collapsed from heat exaust on the pathway back to the barn area. In the King's Bishop .. he had to deal with pressing the fastest pace figure of the entire Saratoga meet while 4-to-5 wide through the turn. He was beaten 11 lengths with a close to impossible trip in a race he shouldn't have been entered back in off of short rest. Want to see him get some time off and come back fresh... he's a lot more talented than people think.

Trader Pete put only a single 2-year-old on his watch list... a horse named Eightyfive in a Fifty who was 3rd at 27/1 odds in a maiden race in his most recent race.

* Eightyfiveinafifty (Joint fastest unblinkered horse at OBS March 2yo sale. Gary Contessa trained 2yo was dismissed at 27/1 odds in his debut because it was a brutally tough race on paper.

Dueled head-to-head with first time blinkered experienced runner Discreetly Mine through screaming fast fractions (109 pace figure) - won the duel, but could only manage a sensational 3rd place finish. Pace rival Discreetly Mine finshed 4th.

Trader Pete made two nice calls - because 85ina50 won his next start by 19 lengths and Big Drama was given a layoff and returned to win the BC Sprint the following year.

Obviously - I just want to pat my buddy StoneGossard in the back - and mention his fine old site. http://traderpete.blogspot.com/

But basically, there is little value in impressive maiden winners. There's a lot more with soundly beaten horses who run better than people think.

[Dahoss]

...and Pricci had the nerve to call Steve a self promoter. Ha!

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Pete is a vastly underrated poster here. He's so modest - I have to do his self promo for him.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

There typically is very little to no betting value in those type of impressive maiden winners.

The real value comes when you can identify very underrated horses who are soundly beaten in lesser races - and don't have the best of forms going in.

There was a horse racing blog I believe called 'Trader Pete's Boom Boom Room' that was probably the best racing Blog in the land for all of the three or four days it was running.

Trader Pete did a single 'Horses to Watch' list after Saratoga's meet concluded. He only put one horse exiting a stakes race on the list .. Big Drama - who was beaten double digit lengths in the King's Bishop.




Trader Pete put only a single 2-year-old on his watch list... a horse named Eightyfive in a Fifty who was 3rd at 27/1 odds in a maiden race in his most recent race.



Trader Pete made two nice calls - because 85ina50 won his next start by 19 lengths and Big Drama was given a layoff and returned to win the BC Sprint the following year.

Obviously - I just want to pat my buddy StoneGossard in the back - and mention his fine old site. http://traderpete.blogspot.com/

But basically, there is little value in impressive maiden winners. There's a lot more with soundly beaten horses who run better than people think.

There was another blogger that was really good. I can't remember his name. He would come up with a play practically every day. In the first year he did it, he gave out around 160 plays (just betting to win or sometimes win and place) and the guy had an ROI for the year of +15%.

The next year he came up with even more plays. He came up with over 450 plays and his ROI was +6% that year. He had a pretty good following on the site but he finally stopped posting because he was afraid that he was costing himself money by giving out the plays to people who may be betting into the pools.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

He had a pretty good following on the site but he finally shut it down because he was afraid that he was costing himself money by giving out the plays to people who may be betting into the pools.

[Dahoss]

If Rupert thinks he's going to win a battle of bragging...he really doesn't know who he is dealing with.

[Sightseek]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

If Rupert thinks he's going to win a battle of bragging...he really doesn't know who he is dealing with.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

If Rupert thinks he's going to win a battle of bragging...he really doesn't know who he is dealing with.

Someone sent me a text an hour ago saying "Getting involved in a redboarding battle about first-time starters with DrugS is like getting involved in a land war with Asia. You'll never win"

People have me so wrong.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Someone sent me a text an hour ago saying "Getting involved in a redboarding battle about first-time starters with DrugS is like getting involved in a land war with Asia. You'll never win"

People have me so wrong.

That's pretty funny.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Someone sent me a text an hour ago saying "Getting involved in a redboarding battle about first-time starters with DrugS is like getting involved in a land war with Asia. You'll never win"

People have me so wrong.

I do not think that means what you think it means.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Someone sent me a text an hour ago saying "Getting involved in a redboarding battle about first-time starters with DrugS is like getting involved in a land war with Asia. You'll never win"

People have me so wrong.

Have you seen that movie yet?