Roger Stein on Beyer on Zenyatta

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Dahoss

Like I said, she lost....get over it already.

She got a nearly perfect trip and plenty of pace to run into. She ran well and just missed. Her performance doesn't need all of these reaches, what if's and excuses. Again, she ran well. She was beat by a better horse. Not much better, but he was better that day.

If you are going to play the what if games, might as well do it for her wins also. What if Switch doesn't switch to the wrong lead late in the Lady's Secret? See how silly this could get? Stuff happens in races.

If that hadn't happened with Switch, Zenyatta retires with 18 wins and 1 second in 19 starts.

I'm really doubtful Z wins that race.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

If that hadn't happened with Switch, Zenyatta retires with 18 wins and 1 second in 19 starts.

I'm really doubtful Z wins that race.

If Steve Haskin trained Blame - Zenyatta would be 20 for 20 right now. I actually heard him suggest on Byk's show before the Classic that he thought the best way to beat Zenyatta would be to get behind her early - and because he says "she hangs a bit when she gets to the lead" he thought a horse like Blame might be able to catch her hanging late.

Just imagine Garret Gomez going into that race and trying to wrestle Blame back behind Zenyatta early on. Blame is consistantly about 12 to 15 lengths faster than Zenyatta on pace figures this year. He couldn't get behind her early on if he was strangled back.

It's another example of not taking speed of surface into consideration. It's like they had no idea how slow paced Zenyatta's races truly were because they took her fractions at face value without using a variant to adjust for speed of surface.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If Steve Haskin trained Blame - Zenyatta would be 20 for 20 right now. I actually heard him suggest on Byk's show before the Classic that he thought the best way to beat Zenyatta would be to get behind her early - and because he says "she hangs a bit when she gets to the lead" he thought a horse like Blame might be able to catch her hanging late.

Just imagine Garret Gomez going into that race and trying to wrestle Blame back behind Zenyatta early on. Blame is consistantly about 12 to 15 lengths faster than Zenyatta on pace figures this year. He couldn't get behind her early on if he was strangled back.

It's another example of not taking speed of surface into consideration. It's like they had no idea how slow paced Zenyatta's races truly were because they took her fractions at face value without using a variant to adjust for speed of surface.

But the dapples...

[Thunder Gulch]

As Costanza says "Remember, its not a lie if you believe it."

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I actually tip my cap to Zenyatta for her BC Classic race - even though the speed figure was horrible and the pace collapse benefited closers and all that - knowing Smith wouldn't let her lose contact with the field, I doubted she could sustain her run for as long as she did. I even really thought she might stop.

I'd love to see how she runs next time after a race like that. I'm not a big bounce guy - but those are the type of tough races that can lead to form declines in the near term. She looked like an extremely tired horse after the race. After those California wins - she'd come back looking not tired in the least.

For a horse who was getting used to loafing early and sprinting late in all of her races - having to run very hard for the final 8 furlongs while getting that dirt in her eyes and nose couldn't have been any fun.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I actually tip my cap to Zenyatta for her BC Classic race - even though the speed figure was horrible and the pace collapse benefited closers and all that - knowing Smith wouldn't let her lose contact with the field, I doubted she could sustain her run for as long as she did. I even really thought she might stop.

I'd love to see how she runs next time after a race like that. I'm not a big bounce guy - but those are the type of tough races that can lead to form declines in the near term. She looked like an extremely tired horse after the race. After those California wins - she'd come back looking not tired in the least.

For a horse who was getting used to loafing early and sprinting late in all of her races - having to run very hard for the final 8 furlongs while getting that dirt in her eyes and nose couldn't have been any fun.

Lots of people predicted the exact scenario that somewhat played out, that she would have to be used early and would not be able to make a run late because of this........I guess they believe they were proven right by the result.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

Lots of people predicted the exact scenario that somewhat played out, that she would have to be used early and would not be able to make a run late because of this........I guess they believe they were proven right by the result.

If they made a profit on the race - I doubt they'll feel like the result proved them wrong.

Either way - she was a VERY poor even money shot who happened to run fine.

You have to bet against even money shots who are wildcards. The bookies in Europe almost got smoked at 7/2 on her .. but I'm not so sure 7/2 is even a fair price on a wildcard.

If you go by results - even the very best handicappers and bettors are going to be proven wrong A LOT. They're flesh and blood animals with a human on their back. If a horse improves one second over the distance of a mile - that's six lengths. Most races are so closely matched that the way they're run will ultimately determine who wins.

[10 pnt move up]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If they made a profit on the race - I doubt they'll feel like the result proved them wrong.

Either way - she was a VERY poor even money shot who happened to run fine.

You have to bet against even money shots who are wildcards. The bookies in Europe almost got smoked at 7/2 on her .. but I'm not so sure 7/2 is even a fair price on a wildcard.

If you go by results - even the very best handicappers and bettors are going to be proven wrong A LOT. They're flesh and blood animals with a human on their back. If a horse improves one second over the distance of a mile - that's six lengths. Most races are so closely matched that the way they're run will ultimately determine who wins.

Well one of them had her at 10/1 chance.........she lost so I guess they were right, I just would have loved that 10/1 at the top of the stretch, and would take it any day of the week if the race is run again and again with the same dynamics.

She was not even money on my line, I had her about 5/2 to 3/1, so she wins that race better than a quarter of the time.........after the race I think I did not give her enough credit, she probably wins it like 40%. I gave horses like Quality Road, and to a certain extent LAL to much credit for some of those easy wins against nada.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If they made a profit on the race - I doubt they'll feel like the result proved them wrong.

Either way - she was a VERY poor even money shot who happened to run fine.

You have to bet against even money shots who are wildcards. The bookies in Europe almost got smoked at 7/2 on her .. but I'm not so sure 7/2 is even a fair price on a wildcard.

If you go by results - even the very best handicappers and bettors are going to be proven wrong A LOT. They're flesh and blood animals with a human on their back. If a horse improves one second over the distance of a mile - that's six lengths. Most races are so closely matched that the way they're run will ultimately determine who wins.

I do agree with you that she was a very poor even-money shot. I would have made her the favorite but I made her about 5-2 or 3-1.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

If Steve Haskin trained Blame - Zenyatta would be 20 for 20 right now. I actually heard him suggest on Byk's show before the Classic that he thought the best way to beat Zenyatta would be to get behind her early - and because he says "she hangs a bit when she gets to the lead" he thought a horse like Blame might be able to catch her hanging late.

Just imagine Garret Gomez going into that race and trying to wrestle Blame back behind Zenyatta early on. Blame is consistantly about 12 to 15 lengths faster than Zenyatta on pace figures this year. He couldn't get behind her early on if he was strangled back.

It's another example of not taking speed of surface into consideration. It's like they had no idea how slow paced Zenyatta's races truly were because they took her fractions at face value without using a variant to adjust for speed of surface.

WOW.

Haskin has lost it.

Then again, Zenyattas great ability to expose retardism for what it is, is priceless.