Roger Stein on Beyer on Zenyatta

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Or it could be just as DrugS predicted would happen, and why.

She's never been in a quick paced race before, and almost by default, she was going to be further back than ever before.

Either that, or God willed it. Too bad Pat Day wasn't on Z. I think God would have been on Team Zenyatta that day if he had.

I wonder if I'm the first person to ever use Zenyatta and god together in the same sentence.

That is simply untrue. She's been in plenty of races over the course of her career where the paces were similar or even faster and she was nowhere near that far back. When she broke her maiden, they went the half in :44 4/5 and she was only 8 back. In her next race, they went :46 1/5 and she was only 4 back. Granted her style has changed in that she now comes from much further back but I highly doubt that she can't comfortably be closer than 20 lengths back when they run 3 furlongs in :35. There have been plenty of races over the last year when they went :47 and change and she wasn't anywhere near 20 lengths back after 3 furlongs in any of those races.

The only race that was anything close to this was last year's BC Classic. I can't figure out what was going on with her in the early going in that race. She wasn't herself at all. She wouldn't switch leads which is unusual for her. Mike Smith tried two or three times to get her to switch before she finally did it.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That is simply untrue. She's been in plenty of races over the course of her career where the paces were similar or even faster and she was nowhere near that far back. When she broke her maiden, they went the half in :44 4/5 and she was only 8 back. In her next race, they went :46 1/5 and she was only 4 back. Granted her style has changed in that she now comes from much further back but I highly doubt that she can't comfortably be closer than 20 lengths back when they run 3 furlongs in :35. There have been plenty of races over the last year when they went :47 and change and she wasn't anywhere near 20 lengths back after 3 furlongs in any of those races.

The only race that was anything close to this was last year's BC Classic. I can't figure out what was going on with her in the early going in that race. She wasn't herself at all. She wouldn't switch leads which is unusual for her. Mike Smith tried two or three times to get her to switch before she finally did it.

How about the 2008 Vanity?

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

How about the 2008 Vanity?

Yes, you are right. They went the half in :46 1/5 in that race. After 3 furlongs in that race, she was about 12-13 lengths back, not 20 lengths back like in this year's BC Classic.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

That is simply untrue. She's been in plenty of races over the course of her career where the paces were similar or even faster and she was nowhere near that far back. When she broke her maiden, they went the half in :44 4/5 and she was only 8 back. In her next race, they went :46 1/5 and she was only 4 back. Granted her style has changed in that she now comes from much further back but I highly doubt that she can't comfortably be closer than 20 lengths back when they run 3 furlongs in :35. There have been plenty of races over the last year when they went :47 and change and she wasn't anywhere near 20 lengths back after 3 furlongs in any of those races.

The only race that was anything close to this was last year's BC Classic. I can't figure out what was going on with her in the early going in that race. She wasn't herself at all. She wouldn't switch leads which is unusual for her. Mike Smith tried two or three times to get her to switch before she finally did it.

Are you really comparing her 10f dirt race to her debut race and her second start?

[Indian Charlie]

By the way Rupert, her debut and her second start were, at least to me, her two most impressive starts prior to the BCC this year.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

By the way Rupert, her debut and her second start were, at least to me, her two most impressive starts prior to the BCC this year.

I thought her 2008 Apple Blossom was huge. Not only was it extremely impressive visually but as I said in another thread, I think she ran much faster that day than anyone gives her credit for. I think the official time of the other big race that day was wrong. Like racereplays.com, I had the Oaklawn Handicap in 1:50.34, not 1:48 3/5 (the official time they came up with 2 days later). Zenyatta ran 1 1/16 miles in 1:42 3/5 just 1 hour earlier.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I thought her 2008 Apple Blossom was huge. Not only was it extremely impressive visually but as I said in another thread, I think she ran much faster that day than anyone gives her credit for. I think the official time of the other big race that day was wrong. Like racereplays.com, I had the Oaklawn Handicap in 1:50.34, not 1:48 3/5 (the official time they came up with 2 days later). Zenyatta ran 1 1/16 miles in 1:42 3/5 just 1 hour earlier.

It was huge, but why continue to argue it? Come over to the top 6 for 2011 thread.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

I thought her 2008 Apple Blossom was huge. Not only was it extremely impressive visually but as I said in another thread, I think she ran much faster that day than anyone gives her credit for. I think the official time of the other big race that day was wrong. Like racereplays.com, I had the Oaklawn Handicap in 1:50.34, not 1:48 3/5 (the official time they came up with 2 days later). Zenyatta ran 1 1/16 miles in 1:42 3/5 just 1 hour earlier.

Yeah, maybe. I've seen bad times before. Really, I don't think it's really defined if she's a better horse on dirt or synthetic, nor do I really care. I just think it's logical she was so far back early in the BCC because it was a race with an unusually fast pace, for her.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I just think it's logical she was so far back early in the BCC because it was a race with an unusually fast pace, for her.

Obviously.

And Rupert is going through her past races and picking out fractions - without taking into consideration the speed of the racing surface.

Go to Zenyatta's race two starts back at Del Mar. She was 7.5 lengths behind a 50.61 half mile going 8.5fs.

One race earlier - you had an opt claiming race for fillies at a mile on the same surface go 45.59 for a half mile. The winner of that race was a filly in for a 40K claiming tag.

So, Zenyatta's race went 5.02 full seconds - or about 30 lengths - slower to the half mile than some ordinary N1X opt claiming route for females.

Here are the charts of these two races run over the same surface 30 minutes apart:

http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorse...00807&raceNo=8

http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorse...00807&raceNo=9


I don't know why it is - but A LOT of people are just hopelessly lost by stuff like this. If you're going to compare fractions with fractions at different tracks - you better be able to adjust for speed of surface.

I've seen hopeless $5,000 claimers cut fractions of 21 and change 44 flat and run 1:09 at Turf Paradise. There are days at Calder where the track is so slow that Grade 1 sprinters would be lucky to beat 23 flat and run 6fs in 1:12 and change. Obviously - Turf Paradise to Calder is an extreme example - but her So. Cal pace fractions that keep getting quoted are run on faster racing surfaces than ones at most Eastern dirt tracks.

Lookin At Lucky romped in the Haskell getting 9fs in 1:49 4/5. Blame won a Grade 1 at Churchill in the Stephen Foster in 1:49 1/5.

The day Zenyatta won the Santa Margarita earlier this year - Dance To My Tune and Floating Heart finished a nose apart and both completed 9fs in 1:48 2/5.

To use the pace fractions Zenyatta ran in the Santa Margarita and compare them with other horses in the BC Classic .. is every bit as stupid as saying Dance to My Tune and Floating Heart would have won the Haskell by 8.5 lengths because their final time was 8.5 lengths faster. Just ignore the speed of the racing surface.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Obviously.

And Rupert is going through her past races and picking out fractions - without taking into consideration the speed of the racing surface.

Go to Zenyatta's race two starts back at Del Mar. She was 7.5 lengths behind a 50.61 half mile going 8.5fs.

One race earlier - you had an opt claiming race for fillies at a mile on the same surface go 45.59 for a half mile. The winner of that race was a filly in for a 40K claiming tag.

So, Zenyatta's race went 5.02 full seconds - or about 30 lengths - slower to the half mile than some ordinary N1X opt claiming route for females.

Here are the charts of these two races run over the same surface 30 minutes apart:

http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorse...00807&raceNo=8

http://www1.drf.com/drfNCWeeklyHorse...00807&raceNo=9


I don't know why it is - but A LOT of people are just hopelessly lost by stuff like this. If you're going to compare fractions with fractions at different tracks - you better be able to adjust for speed of surface.

I've seen hopeless $5,000 claimers cut fractions of 21 and change 44 flat and run 1:09 at Turf Paradise. There are days at Calder where the track is so slow that Grade 1 sprinters would be lucky to beat 23 flat and run 6fs in 1:12 and change. Obviously - Turf Paradise to Calder is an extreme example - but her So. Cal pace fractions that keep getting quoted are run on faster racing surfaces than ones at most Eastern dirt tracks.

Lookin At Lucky romped in the Haskell getting 9fs in 1:49 4/5. Blame won a Grade 1 at Churchill in the Stephen Foster in 1:49 1/5.

The day Zenyatta won the Santa Margarita earlier this year - Dance To My Tune and Floating Heart finished a nose apart and both completed 9fs in 1:48 2/5.

To use the pace fractions Zenyatta ran in the Santa Margarita and compare them with other horses in the BC Classic .. is every bit as stupid as saying Dance to My Tune and Floating Heart would have won the Haskell by 8.5 lengths because their final time was 8.5 lengths faster. Just ignore the speed of the racing surface.

If Zenyatta would have run in the allowance race at Del Mar where they went the half in :45 3/5, do you think she would have been 35 lengths back? Is that what you are saying? If you honestly think that, I give up.

In the BC Classic, there was clearly something bothering her in the early going of the race. Just watch the way she's moving. She's never looked like that before. She bobbled at least once or twice. You ask Cannon Shell or any trainer out there if that horse looked comfortable in the early going of that race.