10/30 Notes: Rumors have Gio Ponti leaning to lawn

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yeah, I have. He was wider than she was in the Foret and got a little stuck late in the Queen Anne. Affirmed/Alydar would be the analogy I'd make too though.

My point wasn't that he's going to beat her, it's that if she loses, it's extremely likely to be him and not Gio Ponti or Proviso that takes her down.

You really think he had a harder trip than she did in the Foret? She was up close to what seems like a lively enough pace while he was doing the usual Euro thing, drafting behind horses in the two path (big deal). She gave up the lead, and then took it right back pretty easily. He had every chance to outkick her.

I understand what you're saying and obviously just disagree about how good he is and how good the Americans are. We both think she's a very likely winner.

[hockey2315]

If Sidney's Candy got his prep in and validated his last performance, I'd like him a lot. . . now I don't trust him at all.

[NTamm1215]

The thing about beating her is that she's very handy. It seems like she's adaptable to any scenario and Peslier knows he can do pretty much anything with her and still have success. If you compare the internal fractions of the Foret to the Grand Criterium for 2YOs on the same card at the same distance (the race Utley exits) she was 1.3 seconds quicker to the 800m mark and 0.9 seconds faster at the finish. What that probably means is that Wooton Bassett would win the Juv Turf by open lengths, but that's neither here nor there.

A very strong pace going two turns could help Paco Boy's chances but she'd need to be very rank and falter late, something it looks like she's just not going to do.

I like Gio Ponti's chances more than most and don't necessarily think his credentials for this race should be judged solely based on the Shadwell.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The thing about beating her is that she's very handy. It seems like she's adaptable to any scenario and Peslier knows he can do pretty much anything with her and still have success. If you compare the internal fractions of the Foret to the Grand Criterium for 2YOs on the same card at the same distance (the race Utley exits) she was 1.3 seconds quicker to the 800m mark and 0.9 seconds faster at the finish. What that probably means is that Wooton Bassett would win the Juv Turf by open lengths, but that's neither here nor there.

A very strong pace going two turns could help Paco Boy's chances but she'd need to be very rank and falter late, something it looks like she's just not going to do.

I like Gio Ponti's chances more than most and don't necessarily think his credentials for this race should be judged solely based on the Shadwell.

Very good point.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The thing about beating her is that she's very handy. It seems like she's adaptable to any scenario and Peslier knows he can do pretty much anything with her and still have success.

I agree with this. It was really something to behold in the Foret when he let Regal Parade blow past her and didn't move a muscle.

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I like Gio Ponti's chances more than most and don't necessarily think his credentials for this race should be judged solely based on the Shadwell.

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Very good point.

I don't know if that was directed at me, but I'm certainly not doing that. I simply took issue with the idea that his Shadwell was 'very impressive'. I don't like him because I think he's slower than last year and has gotten fat beating terrible U.S. turf horses.

[NTamm1215]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I agree with this. It was really something to behold in the Foret when he let Regal Parade blow past her and didn't move a muscle.

I don't know if that was directed at me, but I'm certainly not doing that. I simply took issue with the idea that his Shadwell was 'very impressive'. I don't like him because I think he's slower than last year and has gotten fat beating terrible U.S. turf horses.

I was just saying it in general, not specifically to you.

I think that Gio Ponti has certainly benefited from a time period when US based turf horses are awful, that goes without saying. However, I don't necessarily think his 2010 races have been any worse than 2009. The Dubai World Cup was underrated all things considered.

I'll give him the Manhattan off the bench and it's not like Winchester hasn't backed it up just a bit. He basically did his best Zenyatta imitation in the Man O War coming from well off a brutally slow pace. Ramon did not give him a good ride in the Arl Million at all and the paid the price.

I've also been of the opinion for quite some time that a mile is his best distance. If I'm right then I'll win, if I'm wrong then I think Goldikova goes three in a row. I'm not spending one cent on Sidney's Candy.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I've also been of the opinion for quite some time that a mile is his best distance. If I'm right then I'll win, if I'm wrong then I think Goldikova goes three in a row. I'm not spending one cent on Sidney's Candy.

To me, that's the only way he has a shot. Because if he runs the races he ran at 10-11 furlongs on Saturday, he'll get stomped.

[Indian Charlie]

I believe The QT and Candy are the two most likely upsetters in here.

My impression of Gio is that he's a horse that can beat low quality fields, but when going up against genuinely good horses, he runs a few placings back.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I like Gio Ponti's chances more than most and don't necessarily think his credentials for this race should be judged solely based on the Shadwell.

I agree and I think he has a very good shot to win in here. I'll be using him and Goldikova equally and maybe Paco Boy or Beethoven in pick 4's. If Sidney's Candy wins, he beats me because I think the unplanned layoff is a concern and he's just not going to run off against a full field like he did last time.