10/30 Notes: Rumors have Gio Ponti leaning to lawn

blackthroatedwind · #1 11-03-2010, 10:59 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Please. He's hardly getting trounced by her. He's lost by two necks and a half-length and in my book that makes him a hell of a lot more likely to win this than Gio Ponti or Proviso.

Have you watched the three races between Goldikova and Paco Boy this year?

You should. He can't get by her when it matters. He's Alydar to her Affirmed.

Scav · #2 11-03-2010, 11:01 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Have you watched the three races between Goldikova and Paco Boy this year?

You should. He can't get by her when it matters. He's Alydar to her Affirmed.

Exactly

CSC · #3 11-03-2010, 11:16 AM

Firmer ground will help Paco Boy, having Hughes opt for a riding title is also an add on bonus, Moore should give him a good trip, he's a very strong finisher, tactically if he can get 1st run on Goldikova he can certainly turn the tables on her. However the negative is he does seem to be getting alot of attention right now and she is a very formidable opponent.

hockey2315 · #4 11-03-2010, 11:17 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

Firmer ground will help Paco Boy, having Hughes opt for a riding title is also an add on bonus, Moore should give him a good trip, he's a very strong finisher, tactically if he can get 1st run on Goldikova he can certainly turn the tables. However he does seem to be getting alot of attention right now and she is a very formidable opponent.

Will someone please enlighten me as to why this is the general consensus? I don't see it.

CSC · #5 11-03-2010, 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Will someone please enlighten me as to why this is the general consensus? I don't see it.

The track here could make all the difference, if the BC were being held in Europe I too would have reservations about his chances. You don't need me to tell you Paco Boy has an exceptional turn of foot, he doesn't need to wind up as say Workforce needs to, to get going. Tactically he has always been running at Goldikova, but over here if Moore can get him in a position of where Goldikova was in last year, it would make things interesting atleast. She was farther back than Peslier probably wanted, if that was PB she was running at, the result could have turned out different.

hockey2315 · #6 11-03-2010, 11:26 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by CSC

The track here could make all the difference, if the BC were being held in Europe I too would have reservations about his chances. You don't need me to tell you Paco Boy has an exceptional turn of foot, he doesn't need to wind up as say Workforce needs to, to get going. Tactically he has always been running at Goldikova, but over here if Moore can get him in a position of Goldikova was in last year, it would make things interesting atleast.

WHAT IS YOUR EVIDENCE THAT THE TRACK WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE? Clearly she likes firm turf. . . a lot.

It's worthless to argue about an even money shot this much, but I just don't see why everyone has come to the conclusion that the turf condition will move up Paco Boy so much without moving Goldikova equally (or more). Weren't they considering scratching her from the Foret because it was too soft?

CSC · #7 11-03-2010, 11:30 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

WHAT IS YOUR EVIDENCE THAT THE TRACK WILL MAKE A DIFFERENCE? Clearly she likes firm turf. . . a lot.

It's worthless to argue about an even money shot this much, but I just don't see why everyone has come to the conclusion that the turf condition will move up Paco Boy so much without moving Goldikova equally (or more). Weren't they considering scratching her from the Foret because it was too soft?

I mean't the configuration, not the surface. It's tighter and the stretch is shorter, tactically it is a whole different ballgame over here. Over there it is cover and long runs in the straight, you just can't compare the 2 tracks.

ateamstupid · #8 11-03-2010, 11:03 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Have you watched the three races between Goldikova and Paco Boy this year?

You should. He can't get by her when it matters. He's Alydar to her Affirmed.

Yeah, I have. He was wider than she was in the Foret and got a little stuck late in the Queen Anne. Affirmed/Alydar would be the analogy I'd make too though.

My point wasn't that he's going to beat her, it's that if she loses, it's extremely likely to be him and not Gio Ponti or Proviso that takes her down.

RockHardTen1985 · #9 11-03-2010, 11:05 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yeah, I have. He was wider than she was in the Foret and got a little stuck late in the Queen Anne.

My point wasn't that he's going to beat her, it's that if she loses, it's extremely likely to be him and not Gio Ponti or Proviso that takes her down.

Paco Boy cant beat her, Id rather take a chance with Get Stormy, Sidneys Candy stealing.... One of them quits, stumbles whatever the other gets brave. Or Proviso then Paco Boy who has proven MANY TIMES, HE CANT BEAT HER. I would rather give someone else a chance at 4-10x the price.

blackthroatedwind · #10 11-03-2010, 11:06 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yeah, I have. He was wider than she was in the Foret and got a little stuck late in the Queen Anne.

My point wasn't that he's going to beat her, it's that if she loses, it's extremely likely to be him and not Gio Ponti or Proviso that takes her down.

I don't agree with a lot of this. I agree that Gio Ponti and, especially, Proviso are unlikely to beat her. I would be more worried about a relative unknown like Sidney's Candy wiring the field.

I don't feel he's a major win candidate but I'm not completely against the Usual QT.

ateamstupid · #11 11-03-2010, 11:08 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't agree with a lot of this. I agree that Gio Ponti and, especially, Proviso are unlikely to beat her. I would be more worried about a relative unknown like Sidney's Candy wiring the field.

I don't feel he's a major win candidate but I'm not completely against the Usual QT.

I thought he ran the better race than Court Vision at Woodbine, so yeah, he's not impossible. I take it you're singling Goldikova then?

blackthroatedwind · #12 11-03-2010, 11:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I thought he ran the better race than Court Vision at Woodbine, so yeah, he's not impossible. I take it you're singling Goldikova then?

I hadn't really thought about it. But, no....I will certainly use Sidney's Candy.

Scav · #13 11-03-2010, 11:10 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don't agree with a lot of this. I agree that Gio Ponti and, especially, Proviso are unlikely to beat her. I would be more worried about a relative unknown like Sidney's Candy wiring the field.

I don't feel he's a major win candidate but I'm not completely against the Usual QT.

FWIW, I thought Sidney's Candy work look horrible over the turf at Churchill. I wasn't on The Usual Q.T until someone I respect called me and said some well regarded Cali people were pushing him pretty heavy. An underneath candidate for me.

RockHardTen1985 · #14 11-03-2010, 11:14 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Scav

FWIW, I thought Sidney's Candy work look horrible over the turf at Churchill. I wasn't on The Usual Q.T until someone I respect called me and said some well regarded Cali people were pushing him pretty heavy. An underneath candidate for me.

Get Stormy is not impossible IMO. DRF is reporting Sidneys Candy is not working well, not finishing well. He runs off early, stops... Stormy takes over... He could get brave at over 20-1. Why is it unreasonable to think a horse like Sidneys Candy might just run like **** off this layoff vs this type?

hockey2315 · #15 11-03-2010, 11:15 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Get Stormy is not impossible IMO. DRF is reporting Sidneys Candy is not working well, not finishing well. He runs off early, stops... Stormy takes over... He could get brave at over 20-1. Why is it unreasonable to think a horse like Sidneys Candy might just run like **** off this layoff vs this type?

I'm a fan of Get Stormy, but he has 0 shot in this race. He spits the bit when he doesn't get things his own way.

Scav · #16 11-03-2010, 11:16 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

Get Stormy is not impossible IMO. DRF is reporting Sidneys Candy is not working well, not finishing well. He runs off early, stops... Stormy takes over... He could get brave at over 20-1. Why is it unreasonable to think a horse like Sidneys Candy might just run like **** off this layoff vs this type?

Impossible

hockey2315 · #17 11-03-2010, 11:11 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yeah, I have. He was wider than she was in the Foret and got a little stuck late in the Queen Anne. Affirmed/Alydar would be the analogy I'd make too though.

My point wasn't that he's going to beat her, it's that if she loses, it's extremely likely to be him and not Gio Ponti or Proviso that takes her down.

You really think he had a harder trip than she did in the Foret? She was up close to what seems like a lively enough pace while he was doing the usual Euro thing, drafting behind horses in the two path (big deal). She gave up the lead, and then took it right back pretty easily. He had every chance to outkick her.

I understand what you're saying and obviously just disagree about how good he is and how good the Americans are. We both think she's a very likely winner.

hockey2315 · #18 11-03-2010, 11:13 AM

If Sidney's Candy got his prep in and validated his last performance, I'd like him a lot. . . now I don't trust him at all.

NTamm1215 · #19 11-03-2010, 11:22 AM

The thing about beating her is that she's very handy. It seems like she's adaptable to any scenario and Peslier knows he can do pretty much anything with her and still have success. If you compare the internal fractions of the Foret to the Grand Criterium for 2YOs on the same card at the same distance (the race Utley exits) she was 1.3 seconds quicker to the 800m mark and 0.9 seconds faster at the finish. What that probably means is that Wooton Bassett would win the Juv Turf by open lengths, but that's neither here nor there.

A very strong pace going two turns could help Paco Boy's chances but she'd need to be very rank and falter late, something it looks like she's just not going to do.

I like Gio Ponti's chances more than most and don't necessarily think his credentials for this race should be judged solely based on the Shadwell.

hockey2315 · #20 11-03-2010, 11:23 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

The thing about beating her is that she's very handy. It seems like she's adaptable to any scenario and Peslier knows he can do pretty much anything with her and still have success. If you compare the internal fractions of the Foret to the Grand Criterium for 2YOs on the same card at the same distance (the race Utley exits) she was 1.3 seconds quicker to the 800m mark and 0.9 seconds faster at the finish. What that probably means is that Wooton Bassett would win the Juv Turf by open lengths, but that's neither here nor there.

A very strong pace going two turns could help Paco Boy's chances but she'd need to be very rank and falter late, something it looks like she's just not going to do.

I like Gio Ponti's chances more than most and don't necessarily think his credentials for this race should be judged solely based on the Shadwell.

Very good point.