Chuchill Post Positions

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

The data above indicates only the extreme outside are severely disadvantaged. Post 10 at 7.7% so it should be less than 10% if the field size is 10+.

Avg field size for post 10 would be 10.38 - that means that post #10 should win at 9.63% - considering the thousand race plus sample size - it's clear that post 10 is at a disadvantage.

Avg field size for post 9 would be 10.01 - thus post 9 should win 9.99%

Avg field size for post 8 would be 9.67 - thus post 8 should win at 10.34%

Avg field size for post 11 would be 11.72 - thus post 11 should win at 8.53%

Avg field size for post 12 would be 12.13 - thus post 12 should win at 8.24%

Basically ....

Post 8: should win 10.34% - wins 9.0% (disadvantaged by 1.34%)

Post 9: should win 9.99% - wins 8.6% (disadvantaged by 1.39%)

Post 10: should win 9.63% - wins 7.7% (disadvantaged by 1.93%)

Post 11: should win 8.53% - wins 5.9% (disadvantaged by 2.63%)

Post 12: should win 8.24% - wins 1.3% (disadvantaged by 6.96%)

Post 13: should win 7.32% - wins 0%

Post 14: should win 7.14% - wins 0%