Chuchill Post Positions

[zippyneedsawin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

A lot was made of how well horses breaking from the rail post did in the last BC held at Churchill. They took four of the five BC races held on dirt.

In general, post positions are a bigger deal on CD's turf course.

Horses with wide posts in turf races are more disadvantaged there than on most other turf courses. Going back as far as I can ...

Post 8: 161-for-1,774 (9.0% winners)
Post 9: 127-for-1,473 (8.6% winners)
Post 10: 83-for-1,082 (7.7% winners)
Post 11: 14-for-238 (5.9% winners)
Post 12: 2-for-152 (1.3% winners)
Post 13: 0-for-12
Post 14: 0-for-8

Posts 12 and outward are just 2-for-172. Both wins came at the distance of 8.5fs. One of the two winners won his next start at the same distance on the turf and paid $13.20 ... the other was a 1st time turfer who was switched to dirt and ran 4th at 36/1 in a Grade 2 stakes on dirt next out.

I'd be extremely happy if Goldikova draws post 14 in the BC Mile. Lure drew post 14 at CD in his bid for a BC Mile three peat in '94 .. and he ended up 9th beaten 9.5 lengths as the 4/5 favorite.

Tight Spot won the first 8 turf races of his career - he drew the 12 hole in the BC Mile at CD and faded to a share of 9th at 5/2 but was still named Champion turf horse that year.

I'm not saying it's a death sentence. North East Bound almost stole the Mile from the 14 hole at CD in 2000. However, he did clear the field before the first turn - and got away with an unpressured 47 4/5 half mile. He also won the Makers Mark Mile in his next turf start with a 108 Beyer and paid $13.80 to win.

Miss Alleged won the 1991 BC Turf from the 12 hole - that win came before the cutoff in the above stats. She won her next start in the Grade 1 Hollywood Turf Cup against males and paid $7.80 to win the following month.

At the very least - nothing is gift wrapped when you start out there on the CD lawn. You really have to earn it.

When you see those turf courses where the outer posts are no disadvantage - and sometimes even an advantage - you assume stuff like maybe the turns are banked a certain way to help the wides or maybe the ground is better the further off the rail you go .. not at Churchill.

post 10 for Goldikova.. I personally don't think it will be a problem for her.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by zippyneedsawin

post 10 for Goldikova.. I personally don't think it will be a problem for her.

Basically - according to the numbers - in 1 out of every 50 or so turf races - a horse breaking from post position 10 is best but doesn't win solely because of its draw. There's a big sample size behind that.

She's basically starting with a bit of a disadvantage - sometimes they can work good trips out from there .. other times things happen where the tiny disadvantage turns into a much bigger one ... I don't think that draw is a big factor but it sure doesn't help her.

[JJP]

Goldikova is a go-against IMO. Bad post; who really was best in last year's Mile? When they go 45 1/5 and 1:08 and change, you really have to downgrade Goldikova's close to win. Gladatorius and Cowboy Cal were the pace setters and they finished 9th and 10th. Courageous Cat probably ran the best race.

Then you look at her form this year; she beats Paco Boy by a neck, a neck and a half length. They are basically even and Goldi will be 1-1 and Paco Boy 9-2 or so? I also think Gio Ponti will beat her. Looks like a great even money to play against.