Rachel Alexandra - what would her odds be in the BC Distaff?

[Thunder Gulch]

Betting odds- probably 6-5.

Fair value odds- 3-1

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Thunder Gulch

Betting odds- probably 6-5.

Fair value odds- 3-1

How would she be 3/1 fair value?

Who would be your fair value favorite? Life At Ten? Blind Luck? Havre De Grace?

More importantly - if they came out before the race and said they were sending with RA - who would be willing to go with her on the lead? Life At Ten already tried that once ... and it resulted in a 79 Beyer for her in her only defeat of the entire year. No one would be stupid enough to hook her. She hasn't been allowed an uncontested easy lead since April of '09. She'd jog.

[2Hot4TV]

RA is beat again and we would hear how another improving filly ran a life time top that was to high to chart and beat the Horse of the year. Thats with her racing on her prefered surface, Dirt.

Another lose to add to her money burnin march to the Breeders Cup Classic.

She was great as a 3yo, but even Hal Wiggen's said she was gutted in the Woodward, yet you saw something else. Go figure?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

RA is beat again and we would hear how another improving filly ran a life time top that was to high to chart and beat the Horse of the year. Thats with her racing on her prefered surface, Dirt.

Another lose to add to her money burnin march to the Breeders Cup Classic.

She was great as a 3yo, but even Hal Wiggen's said she was gutted in the Woodward, yet you saw something else. Go figure?

What language is this?

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

How would she be 3/1 fair value?

Who would be your fair value favorite? Life At Ten? Blind Luck? Havre De Grace?

More importantly - if they came out before the race and said they were sending with RA - who would be willing to go with her on the lead? Life At Ten already tried that once ... and it resulted in a 79 Beyer for her in her only defeat of the entire year. No one would be stupid enough to hook her. She hasn't been allowed an uncontested easy lead since April of '09. She'd jog.

She already lost 3 times this year to ones that aren't good enough for this race. Now throw in Blind Luck and a 10+ horse field.

[cmorioles]

She would have a VERY hard time with Blind Luck if she received any pressure at all. Blind Luck should probably be in the Classic.