Best Maiden Race of the meet so far...

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Of these, wasn't Read the Footnotes the only one to race, let alone break his maiden, at Saratoga as a 2YO?

I think so. They were all his type of 2yo though - the fast pinhook.

Dream Rush was a 90k yl turned 285K 2yo who worked very fast.

Readthefootnotes set the track on fire going 3/8ths at Timonium and was a 320K buy - a ton for a NY bred coming out of the Timonium 2yo sale.

High Finance was an M & H that I think worked fast.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

I think so. They were all his type of 2yo though - the fast pinhook.

Dream Rush was a 90k yl turned 285K 2yo who worked very fast.

Readthefootnotes set the track on fire going 3/8ths at Timonium and was a 320K buy - a ton for a NY bred coming out of the Timonium 2yo sale.

High Finance was an M & H that I think worked fast.

While they were all pricey 2YO plays, my thinking was that we're starting to see a trend where most of Violette's early-season 2YO winners become one-hit wonders (perhaps with the exception of Worstcasescenario). I know that we're looking at a small sample size, but it may not be a coincidence that, of the four horses that you mentioned that "went on with it," only Read the Footnotes broke his maiden at Saratoga. High Finance, for example, didn't even debut until he was a 3YO.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

While they were all pricey 2YO plays, my thinking was that we're starting to see a trend where most of Violette's early-season 2YO winners become one-hit wonders (perhaps with the exception of Worstcasescenario). I know that we're looking at a small sample size, but it may not be a coincidence that, of the four horses that you mentioned that "went on with it," only Read the Footnotes broke his maiden at Saratoga. High Finance, for example, didn't even debut until he was a 3YO.

Shouldn't they become one hit wonders though?

There's only been one trainer since '98 that has won with more 2yo debuters at Saratoga than Violette - and his name is Todd Pletcher and he's had over a hundred more to debut than Violette.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Shouldn't they become one hit wonders though?

There's only been one trainer since '98 that has won with more 2yo debuters at Saratoga than Violette - and his name is Todd Pletcher and he's had over a hundred more to debut than Violette.

Should they? Somehow, I suspect that they're not paying significant six-figures sums to win a maiden race worth $50K, only to have the horse never be heard from again. Winning a debut race is great, but at what cost to the horse's future. I'm not saying it's necessarily Violette's fault. We don't know, for example, what pressure an owner is placing on him to get the horses to the races early. In this regard, the Klaravich horses that others are training also seem to be getting to the races relatively early.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Should they? Somehow, I suspect that they're not paying significant six-figures sums to win a maiden race worth $50K, only to have the horse never be heard from again. Winning a debut race is great, but at what cost to the horse's future. I'm not saying it's necessarily Violette's fault. We don't know, for example, what pressure an owner is placing on him to get the horses to the races early. In this regard, the Klaravich horses that others are training also seem to be getting to the races relatively early.

Better to win that MSW race early than win no race at all.

I think a lot of those horses are simply very precocius types who are fast and way ahead of the game early. A lot of them also have had it put to them early on to be so sharp for the sales.

I agree with you that it's stupid to pay 200K for a horse just to win a 50K MSW race right away. If they sold them all right after those sharp early scores - their ROI might be a lot better.

It's not like the guys buying the yearlings are doing any better. They'll spend 200K on one - and sometimes you finally see a few published works at age 3 - the horse runs once or twice - peforms badly and that's it. Sometimes they never even start at all.

Violette shouldn't be expected to develop his horses like a Zito or Bill Mott might just because he wins more often with them as debuting 2yos at Saratoga. Those guys have a million more horses - and those guys debuters typically run like first time starters. Violette doesn't have the quantity - and his debuters often run like they've already started 7 different times.