Shirreffs' latest gem

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

So Brownie Points ran a 107 that day?

She beat her by 4 1/2 lengths, so BP probably ran a 106. It wouldn't be all that shocking. I'm sure there have been plenty of mediocre horses that have run big numbers as also rans in fast races.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

She beat her by 4 1/2 lengths, so BP probably ran a 106. It wouldn't be all that shocking. I'm sure there have been plenty of mediocre horses that have run big numbers as also rans in fast races.

Yes, and that usually indicates a phony figure.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

She beat her by 4 1/2 lengths, so BP probably ran a 106.

4.5 lengths at 8.5 furlongs equals 8 points. It would be a 107.

When you consider Brownie Points ran 13 times on dirt - and the best figure she ever got in her life was easily the 96 when 2nd to Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom .. I think your 107 stop watch figure for her is a little high. The next time she ran on dirt - Miss Isella smoked her.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

4.5 lengths at 8.5 furlongs equals 8 points. It would be a 107.

When you consider Brownie Points ran 13 times on dirt - and the best figure she ever got in her life was easily the 96 when 2nd to Zenyatta in the Apple Blossom .. I think your 107 stop watch figure for her is a little high. The next time she ran on dirt - Miss Isella smoked her.

My number could be a little high. Myabe Z ran a 112 that day.

With regard to BP, horses do step up sometimes for a career best as also rans in a fast race. Look at Musket Man. He'd run a 99, a 102, and a 95 this year. Then he ran a 109 chasing QR in the Met Mile. What did MM run over the weekend? Around 100? Yet he somehow ran a 109 in the Met Mile. You are the numbers guy, not me, but I'm sure that this type of thing is not that unusual.

[cmorioles]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

My number could be a little high. Myabe Z ran a 112 that day.

With regard to BP, horses do step up sometimes for a career best as also rans in a fast race. Look at Musket Man. He'd run a 99, a 102, and a 95 this year. Then he ran a 109 chasing QR in the Met Mile. What did MM run over the weekend? Around 100? Yet he somehow ran a 109 in the Met Mile. You are the numbers guy, not me, but I'm sure that this type of thing is not that unusual.

Of course he didn't run 100 this weekend. He ran much closer to 109 than 100. How can that be your evidence and you are miles wrong?

As for Shirreffs, please about the string already. He has 59 starts all year.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by cmorioles

Of course he didn't run 100 this weekend. He ran much closer to 109 than 100. How can that be your evidence and you are miles wrong?

As for Shirreffs, please about the string already. He has 59 starts all year.

You are right. I was thinking that Blame ran a 105. I was mixed up with Lookin' At Lucky. He ran a 105.

That would hardly be evidence even if I was right. It wouldn't prove anything. I was just looking for an example off the top of my head of a horse that stepped up and ran faster than they normally do, in defeat in a fast race. I gave a bad example since MM did run about a 107 or 108 in the Whitney.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

The Whitney number was very much an educated guess Rupert. Even though it made sense on paper to give it a 111 - I'm not giving that figure the benefit of the doubt.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

The Whitney number was very much an educated guess Rupert. Even though it made sense on paper to give it a 111 - I'm not giving that figure the benefit of the doubt.

I don't think that number is too far off. I think it was actually a pretty fast race. I think 1:48 4/5 was a very good time on that track that day. I'm actually surprised they ran that fast on that track after running the half in :48. That track was not very fast that day. I would not have expected them to run much faster than 1:48 and change even if the pace was fast, not on that track.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

My number could be a little high. Myabe Z ran a 112 that day.

Brownie Points was a pretty nice honest horse who normally fired the same type of race.



I guess its possible that both Randy Moss and Equibase got the time wrong, and that BP could have ran one standout huge figure over the course of her career that happened to come while getting absolutely crushed by a better horse - but I doubt it.

The 2010 Apple Blossom performance by Zenyatta was more recent and less impressive imo.. and it was followed up with two near photo finish wins.

[Merlinsky]

DrugS, how'd you expect Azeri to do vs her 5th place Classic finish and how'd you think she'd have fared in the 2002 BCC field rather than the Distaff? I remember the good old days when we were yelling about her 2002/2003 redundant schedule instead of Zenyatta's. Azeri came east for multiple G1 wins at 6, but got HOY the year she stayed in CA. Of course she did those races on dirt.

Here's a question for everybody: would Zenyatta have swayed more voters for HOY if she'd done her campaign on CA dirt tracks? Would we be talking about quality of field or even failing to race the season in open company as much if there'd been that dirt surface? I know there was some discussion even in Azeri's situation, but she still won the award. She didn't have a Rachel in the East though, but I do wonder how much of the vote went Rachel's way for Rachel's sake, and how much was anti-synthetic. We all seem to agree Zenyatta's better on dirt. I'm sure the performances would've been flashier. There'd be no 'but she barely beat Anabaa's Creation.' Of course, as our ol' pal Rupert pointed out, the foes coming from East to West might've been different because horses liked coming out for G1s, the problem being it was G1s on dirt that they'd rather come for. Assume the opponents wouldn't be different, though, for the purposes of this question.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by Merlinsky

DrugS, how'd you expect Azeri to do vs her 5th place Classic finish and how'd you think she'd have fared in the 2002 BCC field rather than the Distaff?

I thought Lukas was out of his mind for running her in the BC Classic. That was a brutal field in the Classic and the Distaff was subpar that year.

While a much better horse than Volponi - I don't think she beats Volponi in the BC Classic if she goes there the prior year.

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Brownie Points was a pretty nice honest horse who normally fired the same type of race.



I guess its possible that both Randy Moss and Equibase got the time wrong, and that BP could have ran one standout huge figure over the course of her career that happened to come while getting absolutely crushed by a better horse - but I doubt it.

The 2010 Apple Blossom performance by Zenyatta was more recent and less impressive imo.. and it was followed up with two near photo finish wins.

Brownie Points came back and won a couple of stakes races after the Apple Blossom. She was obviously in good form at the time. She won a grade III in her very next start.