8/8: Saratoga (Day 15-Vanderbilt; $253k C/O)

[hockey2315]

Cohen won on the "other" Pletcher baby at 9-1 the other day. . . and the second timers have been dominant. I'll use that one and the Kimmel. If I were to use a third I'd use the Violette.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Cohen won on the "other" Pletcher baby at 9-1 the other day. . . and the second timers have been dominant. I'll use that one and the Kimmel. If I were to use a third I'd use the Violette.

That race the other day was run over an incredible bias, the second place finisher, the half to Winslow Homer will be much better long term. Kimmel is a disaster, but good luck. Ill take Rick.

[NTamm1215]

Between how strongly Asmussen has done with 2nd time starting 2YOs at Saratoga and how much the firsters' pedigrees indicate they're going to need time, I think Time Counts is going to be very tough in the 4th.

I'll let Gales tell us if Miss Smarty Pants is ready to go since he seems to be in with that barn but Devotion Unbridled lost her debut. Her first foal to race was 0-3 at the age of 2. The extent of Benzel's accomplishments with 2YO firsters over the last five years is a win by Tiz True in a turf route in November 2008. This is a horse who's 3-1 on the morning line!

As far as Classy Touch, Flute lost her debut and none of her five foals to race have won at first asking.

Summer Colony's first foal to race needed three starts to break her maiden. Summer Colony herself needed 7 races to break her maiden.

That leaves you with Sovereign Crisis, who worked well at the sale prompting that gigantic purchase price. Her dam was unraced but her prior two foals to race both lost their debuts and Sir Silver Fox, her first foal, needed six races to break his maiden.

Of course, the board is going to say a lot about this race but the public completely whiffed in the 6th yesterday as the entry was heavily played from the start. Once they found Chad Brown's horse he was bet down to co-favoritism and kept the tremendous run going he's on with firsters.

Fun race.

NT

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Between how strongly Asmussen has done with 2nd time starting 2YOs at Saratoga and how much the firsters' pedigrees indicate they're going to need time, I think Time Counts is going to be very tough in the 4th.

I'll let Gales tell us if Miss Smarty Pants is ready to go since he seems to be in with that barn but Devotion Unbridled lost her debut. Her first foal to race was 0-3 at the age of 2. The extent of Benzel's accomplishments with 2YO firsters over the last five years is a win by Tiz True in a turf route in November 2008. This is a horse who's 3-1 on the morning line!

As far as Classy Touch, Flute lost her debut and none of her five foals to race have won at first asking.

Summer Colony's first foal to race needed three starts to break her maiden. Summer Colony herself needed 7 races to break her maiden.

That leaves you with Sovereign Crisis, who worked well at the sale prompting that gigantic purchase price. Her dam was unraced but her prior two foals to race both lost their debuts and Sir Silver Fox, her first foal, needed six races to break his maiden.

Of course, the board is going to say a lot about this race but the public completely whiffed in the 6th yesterday as the entry was heavily played from the start. Once they found Chad Brown's horse he was bet down to co-favoritism and kept the tremendous run going he's on with firsters.

Fun race.

NT

Do you know who owns the Chad Brown?

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

Between how strongly Asmussen has done with 2nd time starting 2YOs at Saratoga and how much the firsters' pedigrees indicate they're going to need time, I think Time Counts is going to be very tough in the 4th.

I'll let Gales tell us if Miss Smarty Pants is ready to go since he seems to be in with that barn but Devotion Unbridled lost her debut. Her first foal to race was 0-3 at the age of 2. The extent of Benzel's accomplishments with 2YO firsters over the last five years is a win by Tiz True in a turf route in November 2008. This is a horse who's 3-1 on the morning line!

As far as Classy Touch, Flute lost her debut and none of her five foals to race have won at first asking.

Summer Colony's first foal to race needed three starts to break her maiden. Summer Colony herself needed 7 races to break her maiden.

That leaves you with Sovereign Crisis, who worked well at the sale prompting that gigantic purchase price. Her dam was unraced but her prior two foals to race both lost their debuts and Sir Silver Fox, her first foal, needed six races to break his maiden.

Of course, the board is going to say a lot about this race but the public completely whiffed in the 6th yesterday as the entry was heavily played from the start. Once they found Chad Brown's horse he was bet down to co-favoritism and kept the tremendous run going he's on with firsters.

Fun race.

NT

The 8 wouldn't shock me at all, but I'm going to use the two longshot who have run before and then protect with the 8 in exactas. Nicky's Way has pedigree appeal getting more ground considering her sib was a router, and the first few strides of her debut piqued my interest. She shot out of the gate, but then quickly dropped out of it. I'm almost positive this was a reaction to the muddy track-she was completely spinning her wheels. There's clearly more ability here-and more early speed-than meets the eye and Hennig already brought home a bomb second timer last week.

The 6 exits the same race as Nicky's Way and I think she also had trouble gripping the track. She stayed in it a little longer, earning a 92 early pace fig, and the added blinkers make me think she has to be gunned early. She chased a horse in her debut that might be ok, and owns the highest BSF of the three that have run before, for whatever that's worth.

[tiggerv]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Nicky's Way has pedigree appeal getting more ground considering her sib was a router, and the first few strides of her debut piqued my interest. She shot out of the gate, but then quickly dropped out of it. I'm almost positive this was a reaction to the muddy track-she was completely spinning her wheels. There's clearly more ability here-and more early speed-than meets the eye and Hennig already brought home a bomb second timer last week.

I thought this one was interesting too. 2TS who likely hated the track first out.

I really love the pedigree on Classy Touch even thought she won't win today.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by RockHardTen1985

That race the other day was run over an incredible bias, the second place finisher, the half to Winslow Homer will be much better long term. Kimmel is a disaster, but good luck. Ill take Rick.

Kimmel has some pretty nice stats w/ debuting 2yo's at Saratoga no matter how you slice them.

The rest of your post shows a huge misunderstanding of how to play baby races. The "bias" thing is irrelevant whether or not it's accurate. You want horses with a lot of speed-which the Forestry ridden by Cohen had-because these races are almost always won by speed horses or stalkers, especially at the shorter distances. What they will do in the future is meaningless and the best types to play against are the ones who are bred to be good in the future and good going longer. The first thing I do when I handicap one of these races is go through and pick out all the pedigrees that can't win going short, and they're almost always horses owned by Darley, Shadwell, the Phipps', etc... and trained by weaker first out trainers. But they still get bet by people who see their potential or price tag rather than their ability to get five furlongs first time out. There's a reason why guys like Wesley Ward and Violette (Klaravich/Lawrence) dominate baby races-because they're only concerned with the short term, rather than the future. I think it's a terrible strategy when you look at how many Violette maiden winners with decent price tags are never heard from again, unless he and Ward are selling them all to Sheikh Mo. I doubt that, though. He's clueless, but not that clueless.

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

Kimmel has some pretty nice stats w/ debuting 2yo's at Saratoga no matter how you slice them.

The rest of your post shows a huge misunderstanding of how to play baby races. The "bias" thing is irrelevant whether or not it's accurate. You want horses with a lot of speed-which the Forestry ridden by Cohen had-because these races are almost always won by speed horses or stalkers, especially at the shorter distances. What they will do in the future is meaningless and the best types to play against are the ones who are bred to be good in the future and good going longer. The first thing I do when I handicap one of these races is go through and pick out all the pedigrees that can't win going short, and they're almost always horses owned by Darley, Shadwell, the Phipps', etc... and trained by weaker first out trainers. But they still get bet by people who see their potential or price tag rather than their ability to get five furlongs first time out. There's a reason why guys like Wesley Ward and Violette (Klaravich/Lawrence) dominate baby races-because they're only concerned with the short term, rather than the future. I think it's a terrible strategy when you look at how many Violette maiden winners with decent price tags are never heard from again, unless he and Ward are selling them all to Sheikh Mo. I doubt that, though. He's clueless, but not that clueless.

Well said.

Why isn't Rudy Rudy Rudy being mentioned?

This seems like the kind of horse Rudy would dope up to the max. Only a self-loathing rat turd would train a horse with his namesake.

[RockHardTen1985]

Originally Posted by Coach Pants

Why isn't Rudy Rudy Rudy being mentioned?

This seems like the kind of horse Rudy would dope up to the max. Only a self-loathing rat turd would train a horse with his namesake.

He is a lot more likely then Kimmel

[Dahoss]

The Kimmel has some works that match up with his opening day winner.