![]() |
![]() |
![]() |
|
#1
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
It's common knowledge that I respect you more that just about any trip handicapper out there. Consider what I'm offering here. This is very similar to your misread of the Al Khali trip in that race won by Courageous Cat. Horses that find trouble at key points in the race are at an advantage --- especially in cases of sustained runs like this one. This was a flow race and IB was riding the gulf stream. |
#2
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
I still think Ice Box ran a winning race, in the sense that if things had gone as well for him as they did for the first and third finishers he would have won. The bigger question is, then, who actually ran the best race. And, this means for ten furlongs. The problem is, it may not be particularly relevent in the future, due to how unusual this race was.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB |
#3
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
If the horse had simply been walled off for a bit and forced to gradually make his way to the outside (while drafting) without being forced to check, I think I could understand your point. But - to me - that doesn't look like what hapened to Ice Box. Wasn't he flat-out blocked off in the stretch and forced to steady for a moment in order to get around? I'm honestly and sincerely trying to understand your perspective here, but I just don't see how in the world something like that could have helped him. |
#4
|
|||
|
|||
![]() It didn't " help " him, you're right....it couldn't have, but I guess in Fatmanese he's trying make people realize that it's not necessarily cut and dried that it buried him either. It's worth exploring how it changed the race.
It would be great to have many alternate universes and see what would have actually happened under many different scenerios.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB |
#5
|
|||
|
|||
![]() If the argument, and I'm sure I'll be wrong, is that a horse who will ultimately attempt to rally into a race that unfolds in a layered scenario (a la most Derbies) runs into trouble as other horses are moving, it enables him to make that "last run" that often works best in said type of race.
Ice Box is almost always going to be a "last mover" type of horse and he's certainly going to need a layered race (pace that backs up, another horse that moves prematurely and/or collapses the race). I guess the only part of this argument that I'm unsure about is how we can say with certainty that he wouldn't have won the damn thing by three lengths had he been able to swing out just inside the 1/4 pole and make one sustained run down the middle. I probably can't be sure it wouldn't have worked by noting that Lookin at Lucky and Make Music For Me attempted basically that and both came up wanting. NT |
#6
|
|||
|
|||
![]() I agree Nick....with all sides.
The problem The Fat Man has here is sort of what he accuses others of doing, and we all do it, in that he hates Ice Box...so he's being a little stubborn. That's all fine, but the rub is how can he be so sure that this horse isn't improving, and might be a better horse ( a lot better ) than he was a few months ago. And, further, isn't it hard to argue that he rates to relish distance at least as much as any of these horses? Surely someone like the Fat Man, with extensive backstretch experience, has seen horses improve as they grow up.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB |
#7
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
And, it's not like I have anything in particular against IC. Here's just one of many horses that needs that xtra special trip to win a race. 99% of all horses are probably like that. Why would I assume that he runs down SS then if he doesn't have to go around a whole bunch of horses while drafting when they're driving? I'm not making this **** up it's obvious in my charts. And, I've learned the hard way ($$$) not to go against the obvious. |
#8
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
|
#9
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
One constant in all these races: IB made the LAST move. Put him in a race where he has to do his own work and he's just not getting it done. He needs help. Quite a bit of help. So, I ask again: where's his GOOD race? |
#10
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
|
#11
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
There is some relevence to history as well.....and a final last move in the Derby never seems to win.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB |
#12
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
|
#13
|
|||
|
|||
![]() I honestly think the fact that Conveyance and Sidney's Candy were stopping so badly made it look like Willy made more of a move then he really did. His horse was simply traveling better then the two tired leaders. The only move Willy made was to move in time to split the two front runners. After he split them and hit the front he sat chilly again, it's not like he went all in at the 3/8ths pole like everyone is acting. The only possible move you can critique from his ride is the fact that he didnt shut back off the rail when he did hit the front. This is a son of Cuvee and 5th in the derby is an overachievement in many ways. I dont think he was cost a placing nor do I think he is any better then what he's shown so far. He could be a very dangerous horse at a mile maybe a little more. But that's it, Willy is getting lumped way too much blame here.
|
#14
|
||||
|
||||
![]() Quote:
__________________
please use generalizations and non-truths when arguing your side, thank you |
#15
|
|||
|
|||
![]() Quote:
|