Noble's Promise: Did Willie Cost him at least a placing?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He's obnoxious. So what. At least he has something to say.

Andy

It's common knowledge that I respect you more that just about any trip handicapper out there. Consider what I'm offering here. This is very similar to your misread of the Al Khali trip in that race won by Courageous Cat. Horses that find trouble at key points in the race are at an advantage --- especially in cases of sustained runs like this one. This was a flow race and IB was riding the gulf stream.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Andy

It's common knowledge that I respect you more that just about any trip handicapper out there. Consider what I'm offering here. This is very similar to your misread of the Al Khali trip in that race won by Courageous Cat. Horses that find trouble at key points in the race are at an advantage --- especially in cases of sustained runs like this one. This was a flow race and IB was riding the gulf stream.

I understand.

I still think Ice Box ran a winning race, in the sense that if things had gone as well for him as they did for the first and third finishers he would have won.

The bigger question is, then, who actually ran the best race. And, this means for ten furlongs. The problem is, it may not be particularly relevent in the future, due to how unusual this race was.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Horses that find trouble at key points in the race are at an advantage.

This is where you're losing me.
If the horse had simply been walled off for a bit and forced to gradually make his way to the outside (while drafting) without being forced to check, I think I could understand your point. But - to me - that doesn't look like what hapened to Ice Box. Wasn't he flat-out blocked off in the stretch and forced to steady for a moment in order to get around? I'm honestly and sincerely trying to understand your perspective here, but I just don't see how in the world something like that could have helped him.

[blackthroatedwind]

It didn't " help " him, you're right....it couldn't have, but I guess in Fatmanese he's trying make people realize that it's not necessarily cut and dried that it buried him either. It's worth exploring how it changed the race.

It would be great to have many alternate universes and see what would have actually happened under many different scenerios.

[NTamm1215]

If the argument, and I'm sure I'll be wrong, is that a horse who will ultimately attempt to rally into a race that unfolds in a layered scenario (a la most Derbies) runs into trouble as other horses are moving, it enables him to make that "last run" that often works best in said type of race.

Ice Box is almost always going to be a "last mover" type of horse and he's certainly going to need a layered race (pace that backs up, another horse that moves prematurely and/or collapses the race). I guess the only part of this argument that I'm unsure about is how we can say with certainty that he wouldn't have won the damn thing by three lengths had he been able to swing out just inside the 1/4 pole and make one sustained run down the middle. I probably can't be sure it wouldn't have worked by noting that Lookin at Lucky and Make Music For Me attempted basically that and both came up wanting.

NT

[blackthroatedwind]

I agree Nick....with all sides.

The problem The Fat Man has here is sort of what he accuses others of doing, and we all do it, in that he hates Ice Box...so he's being a little stubborn. That's all fine, but the rub is how can he be so sure that this horse isn't improving, and might be a better horse ( a lot better ) than he was a few months ago. And, further, isn't it hard to argue that he rates to relish distance at least as much as any of these horses?

Surely someone like the Fat Man, with extensive backstretch experience, has seen horses improve as they grow up.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

If the argument, and I'm sure I'll be wrong, is that a horse who will ultimately attempt to rally into a race that unfolds in a layered scenario (a la most Derbies) runs into trouble as other horses are moving, it enables him to make that "last run" that often works best in said type of race.

Ice Box is almost always going to be a "last mover" type of horse and he's certainly going to need a layered race (pace that backs up, another horse that moves prematurely and/or collapses the race). I guess the only part of this argument that I'm unsure about is how we can say with certainty that he wouldn't have won the damn thing by three lengths had he been able to swing out just inside the 1/4 pole and make one sustained run down the middle. I probably can't be sure it wouldn't have worked by noting that Lookin at Lucky and Make Music For Me attempted basically that and both came up wanting.

NT

You know how we're relatively sure, Nick? Because Ice Box has never demonstrated the ability to run anything remotely resembling an against the grain race. If I were doing pace numbers, if I were CJ, for example, and I had the data to back up that if a horse runs early fractions xxx, then he's going to come home in final time yyy, you, or anyone else, probably wouldn't try too hard to refute my contention. This is because you'd probably realize that I had copious data to support my conclusion. Well, after having looked at a few million or so Fat Charts over the past few years and have noted 'regularities', I can draw the reasonable conclusion that Ice Box would not have continued on, since LaL and MMFM didn't. I don't know about MMFM but LaL is certainly a horse that has demonstrated the ability to win a race where he doesn't get a perfect trip. Ice Box hasn't. Why would I assume that Ice Box is able to put in a sustained run on Saturday when LaL couldn't?

And, it's not like I have anything in particular against IC. Here's just one of many horses that needs that xtra special trip to win a race. 99% of all horses are probably like that. Why would I assume that he runs down SS then if he doesn't have to go around a whole bunch of horses while drafting when they're driving?

I'm not making this **** up it's obvious in my charts. And, I've learned the hard way ($$$) not to go against the obvious.

[parsixfarms]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Because Ice Box has never demonstrated the ability to run anything remotely resembling an against the grain race.

I don't know about MMFM but LaL is certainly a horse that has demonstrated the ability to win a race where he doesn't get a perfect trip. Ice Box hasn't. Why would I assume that Ice Box is able to put in a sustained run on Saturday when LaL couldn't?

I certainly was not an Ice Box fan going into the Derby, but his trip in his allowance win on January 18 (against Pleasant Prince) was far from "perfect." Rather than sitting in behind covered up in a short field, Velazquez moved up him four-wide into the first turn and he then pressed the pace while wide and uncovered. He essentially was able to grind out a win even though Pleasant Prince had a relatively easier (and ground-saving) trip.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

I certainly was not an Ice Box fan going into the Derby, but his trip in his allowance win on January 18 (against Pleasant Prince) was far from "perfect." Rather than sitting in behind covered up in a short field, Velazquez moved up him four-wide into the first turn and he then pressed the pace while wide and uncovered. He essentially was able to grind out a win even though Pleasant Prince had a relatively easier (and ground-saving) trip.

No doubt he ran more in that race in terms of distance covered. When I looked at the chart for the race initially, I thought that PP ran the better race. Then I looked at the replay, which concurs with your assessment. It then became a question of which to give more weight to: the wide trip and, essentially, last move or the, relatively, sharp move by PP the 2nd to 3rd split, in what was a layered race. I deferred to the chart, knowing full well that horses that are inside tend to lose ground while behind horses. IB was wider by he also ran later. As it was, IB ran better than PP next time out in the FOY, which apparently proved me wrong. Then again, he was hard pressed to nose PP in the FD.

One constant in all these races: IB made the LAST move. Put him in a race where he has to do his own work and he's just not getting it done. He needs help. Quite a bit of help. So, I ask again: where's his GOOD race?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

It didn't " help " him, you're right....it couldn't have, but I guess in Fatmanese he's trying make people realize that it's not necessarily cut and dried that it buried him either. It's worth exploring how it changed the race.

It would be great to have many alternate universes and see what would have actually happened under many different scenerios.

A few weeks ago I turned on ATR and heard your comments concerning Looking at Lucky and the Rebel Stakes. Now, unlike Beyer, you don't stutter, and I could've sworn that I heard you almost come flat out and say that LOL got the benefit of the setup because he found trouble. In other words, you understood that by having to check while the others were in a drive, he was able to last move the field. Why is this any different than what I'm claiming for the Derby?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

A few weeks ago I turned on ATR and heard your comments concerning Looking at Lucky and the Rebel Stakes. Now, unlike Beyer, you don't stutter, and I could've sworn that I heard you almost come flat out and say that LOL got the benefit of the setup because he found trouble. In other words, you understood that by having to check while the others were in a drive, he was able to last move the field. Why is this any different than what I'm claiming for the Derby?

Comparing the supposed trouble that Lookin at Lucky had in the Rebel to the very real trouble Ice Box had in the Derby is a slippery slope. One horse steadied mildly on the backstretch while the other was stopped dead in the midst of his significant rally. Maybe Lookin at Lucky was helped because it forced his rider to make the last move, though Gomez doesn't usually have a problem with this, but I don't really see the comparison.

There is some relevence to history as well.....and a final last move in the Derby never seems to win.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Comparing the supposed trouble that Lookin at Lucky had in the Rebel to the very real trouble Ice Box had in the Derby is a slippery slope. One horse steadied mildly on the backstretch while the other was stopped dead in the midst of his significant rally. Maybe Lookin at Lucky was helped because it forced his rider to make the last move, though Gomez doesn't usually have a problem with this, but I don't really see the comparison.

There is some relevence to history as well.....and a final last move in the Derby never seems to win.

Not exactly. LaL steadied while Dublin and NP were making strong (perhaps premature) moves. This allowed him to get them late. IB checked behind horses while LaL and MMFM were in an all out drive; this allowed him to gain the last split when they fizzled out.

[iamthelurker]

I honestly think the fact that Conveyance and Sidney's Candy were stopping so badly made it look like Willy made more of a move then he really did. His horse was simply traveling better then the two tired leaders. The only move Willy made was to move in time to split the two front runners. After he split them and hit the front he sat chilly again, it's not like he went all in at the 3/8ths pole like everyone is acting. The only possible move you can critique from his ride is the fact that he didnt shut back off the rail when he did hit the front. This is a son of Cuvee and 5th in the derby is an overachievement in many ways. I dont think he was cost a placing nor do I think he is any better then what he's shown so far. He could be a very dangerous horse at a mile maybe a little more. But that's it, Willy is getting lumped way too much blame here.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

I honestly think the fact that Conveyance and Sidney's Candy were stopping so badly made it look like Willy made more of a move then he really did. His horse was simply traveling better then the two tired leaders. The only move Willy made was to move in time to split the two front runners. After he split them and hit the front he sat chilly again, it's not like he went all in at the 3/8ths pole like everyone is acting. The only possible move you can critique from his ride is the fact that he didnt shut back off the rail when he did hit the front. This is a son of Cuvee and 5th in the derby is an overachievement in many ways. I dont think he was cost a placing nor do I think he is any better then what he's shown so far. He could be a very dangerous horse at a mile maybe a little more. But that's it, Willy is getting lumped way too much blame here.

This is very well stated and I very much agree with you on him inheriting the lead rather than hitting the proverbial "all in" button. Watching the overhead really reveals this.

[Port Conway Lane]

Originally Posted by iamthelurker

I honestly think the fact that Conveyance and Sidney's Candy were stopping so badly made it look like Willy made more of a move then he really did. His horse was simply traveling better then the two tired leaders. The only move Willy made was to move in time to split the two front runners. After he split them and hit the front he sat chilly again, it's not like he went all in at the 3/8ths pole like everyone is acting. The only possible move you can critique from his ride is the fact that he didnt shut back off the rail when he did hit the front. This is a son of Cuvee and 5th in the derby is an overachievement in many ways. I dont think he was cost a placing nor do I think he is any better then what he's shown so far. He could be a very dangerous horse at a mile maybe a little more. But that's it, Willy is getting lumped way too much blame here.

Deja Vu