Interesting Info That Affects Your Derby Pick?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

He was on his wrong lead the whole stretch. If Zito can get that worked out... watch out.

What's more important: getting an absolutely perfect setup with the last run in a collapsing race OR being on the correct lead (in the stretch)? It seems that horses win on the wrong lead all the time. Horses that can't win unless they get a perfect setup don't win otherwise, however.

Zito doesn't need to work anything out, as the horse changed nicely 2 races prior. This horse is a plug. The only thing it has going for it is that Zito has just about the biggest ass around; ass luck is apparently endless for him.

[Buffymommy]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

What's more important: getting an absolutely perfect setup with the last run in a collapsing race OR being on the correct lead (in the stretch)? It seems that horses win on the wrong lead all the time. Horses that can't win unless they get a perfect setup don't win otherwise, however.

Zito doesn't need to work anything out, as the horse changed nicely 2 races prior. This horse is a plug. The only thing it has going for it is that Zito has just about the biggest ass around; ass luck is apparently endless for him.

Not that I am on the Ice Box bandwagon, But Giacomo was a plug too and I won a lot of money on him.

Seems to be a good amount of front runners in here too. Front may have decent pace for the plug to run at.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

What's more important: getting an absolutely perfect setup with the last run in a collapsing race OR being on the correct lead (in the stretch)? It seems that horses win on the wrong lead all the time. Horses that can't win unless they get a perfect setup don't win otherwise, however.

Zito doesn't need to work anything out, as the horse changed nicely 2 races prior. This horse is a plug. The only thing it has going for it is that Zito has just about the biggest ass around; ass luck is apparently endless for him.

Getting a perfect setup, absolutely, is more important than being on the right lead.

Is he a plug, possibly. But basically this entire field is plugs- the favorite would have been 20-1 or 30-1 in a lot of Derbies. I don't know if this particular plug is good enough to win but I think he'll be grinding into the top 7 which means I'll be using him in exotics.

[Sightseek]

I never liked Ice Box until seeing his works at Churchill.

There are a couple horses who I though looked great working in the slop and being that this is such an evenly matched field, that may lean me towards them in my wagers.

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by philcski

Is he a plug, possibly. But basically this entire field is plugs- the favorite would have been 20-1 or 30-1 in a lot of Derbies. I don't know if this particular plug is good enough to win but I think he'll be grinding into the top 7 which means I'll be using him in exotics.

Right. He's just one of a number of no talent bums that will be praying the race collapses completely. So, you, and others, will use him in a large # of exotic combos and, ultimately, hope to get 3-5:1 on your bet. Aren't there any number of simpler plays on Saturday (and any other full day of racing) that'll get you the same return?

Definitely not a method that works longterm.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by the_fat_man

Right. He's just one of a number of no talent bums that will be praying the race collapses completely. So, you, and others, will use him in a large # of exotic combos and, ultimately, hope to get 3-5:1 on your bet. Aren't there any number of simpler plays on Saturday (and any other full day of racing) that'll get you the same return?

Definitely not a method that works longterm.

I'm hoping to get 3-5:1? Try more like 30-50:1. If I wanted 3-5:1... I'd bet the 5th at Belmont tomorrow.