Interesting Info That Affects Your Derby Pick?
 

Has there been anything that you've heard or read in the past week or so that has made you jump on or off a horse running in this years Derby? Maybe something about a work, a minor injury, something you or someone you know has observed? We're all looking for that one thing that can help us make our tickets... anything you'd care to share with the group?

I was interested to read that Lookin At Lucky has "really has trouble with his hind end" according to Baffert (LINK) and Sidney's Candy "has a quarter crack patch on the inside of his right front hoof, but Sadler said the patch is several months old" (LINK). This might all mean absolutely nothing but added with their post positions make both a toss out of the top spot for me.

Today....
 

I have been thinking about a comment i believe Mike Welsh made on ATR about Ice Box. He said he was "all out" to beat Pleasant Prince in FL Derby. I went back and watched the race again, and the horse never changed lead's, could that have made it look like he was all out to win? Was in fact his close in that race alot better than it looked, because he didn't switch lead's? I hope i am making sense here? Lord knows Mike Welsh has forgotten more about watching a horse, than I will ever know.It just made me wonder if Ice Box's FL Derby may have been a better run, than it may be getting credit for?

Wouldn't you be concerned that the horse doesn't know how to switch leads then?

That's what I was going to say.

ice box also was a closer who won on a track that generally favored front runners all day.

Of course. I didn't say he was my choice, it was just something that i wondered about.

I wish there were more info on what kind of personality each horse had. For instance, would a horse who's skittish psych himself out in front of 150,000 screaming fans, or would the commotion and added adrenaline cause a frightened prey animal to run even faster and further than he ever has before? Do you think a calmer horse does better in this environment or scenario than a hyper one? Or a smart horse vs. a dumb horse? These are animals with (supposedly) less intelligence than dogs. A dog runs and hides under the bed if he hears thunder. I refuse to believe a crowd that size, with all the pomp and fervor of the Derby, doesn't play into this race a great deal. Like when jockeys talk about hitting the final turn and running into the "wall of sound." Some human beings wilt under that type of excitement (and some rise up). What could possibly be going on inside a horse's head?

I'm not trying to be smart-assed at all. These are legitimate questions I have. They can come out with all the different figures and formulas they want, but I think that animal and/or horse psychology is the great unexplored territory in handicapping.

He was on his wrong lead the whole stretch. If Zito can get that worked out... watch out.

Listening to Steve rave about Paddy O' Prado has lead me to consider putting him on a few of my tickets.

I heard that Beautician has looked like crap all week, so I'm going to wheel her in the Oaks-Derby double.

I can't possibly see Sidney's Candy, as much as I like him, winning this from the 20 hole... This may well be a field of rats, but he is no Big Brown.

What's more important: getting an absolutely perfect setup with the last run in a collapsing race OR being on the correct lead (in the stretch)? It seems that horses win on the wrong lead all the time. Horses that can't win unless they get a perfect setup don't win otherwise, however.

Zito doesn't need to work anything out, as the horse changed nicely 2 races prior. This horse is a plug. The only thing it has going for it is that Zito has just about the biggest ass around; ass luck is apparently endless for him.

I was wondering about that fast workout in the slop on 4/23. I will have to dig out what Steve said.

Not that I am on the Ice Box bandwagon, But Giacomo was a plug too and I won a lot of money on him. :)

Seems to be a good amount of front runners in here too. Front may have decent pace for the plug to run at.

Getting a perfect setup, absolutely, is more important than being on the right lead.

Is he a plug, possibly. But basically this entire field is plugs- the favorite would have been 20-1 or 30-1 in a lot of Derbies. I don't know if this particular plug is good enough to win but I think he'll be grinding into the top 7 which means I'll be using him in exotics.

I never liked Ice Box until seeing his works at Churchill.

There are a couple horses who I though looked great working in the slop and being that this is such an evenly matched field, that may lean me towards them in my wagers.

Right. He's just one of a number of no talent bums that will be praying the race collapses completely. So, you, and others, will use him in a large # of exotic combos and, ultimately, hope to get 3-5:1 on your bet. Aren't there any number of simpler plays on Saturday (and any other full day of racing) that'll get you the same return?

Definitely not a method that works longterm.

I'm hoping to get 3-5:1? Try more like 30-50:1. If I wanted 3-5:1... I'd bet the 5th at Belmont tomorrow.

That's why i posed the question, if he closes like he did and can switch leads he could pass a few, and perhaps them all who knows. I wouldn't put it past Zito at all.

How 'bout that PLUG Ice Box. What a piece of ****.

****in horse is going to win the Belmont by 5.