A question for all of you planning to bet Sidney's Candy

[tector]

Originally Posted by NTamm1215

I started this thread to ask people what they liked about this horse. I think he's shaping up as a Saarlandesque underlay and have serious reservations about him making an impact on this race at any point in time.

Assuming that he's going to rate is dangerous. Assuming that he's going to get the lead is even more dangerous. Assuming that he's going to be able to endure a very wide trip a la Big Brown and still be victorious is crazy in my opinion.

I find his ability to be effective from off the pace non-existent and think that everyone being dazzled by his fast 3rd quarter of the SA Derby is ignoring the fact that he walked on the lead prior to that point.

I'm a big boy and if I'm wrong it won't be the first time and it certainly won't be the last.

NT

The biggest point is that he likely is not going to be at the price necessary to make the leaps of faith required. If he is underlaid, then not betting him is the right decision, regardless of how the race actually turns out. You put the money in when you have equity offered to you, and you don't when it isn't.