Derby dosage angle

[Rupert Pupkin]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Okay, I never thought I'd start a thread with "dosage" in the title, but I couldn't resist shining a light on the stellar performance of the dosage angle in this year's Derby.

Mine That Bird's 5.40 dosage was the only dosage greater than 4.00 in this year's Derby. So, the only horse that should have been eliminated based on dosage was the horse that won.

The next two highest dosages in this year's Derby belonged to the 2nd and 3rd place horses: Musket Rat (4.00) and POTN (3.89).

http://www.horse-races.net/library/derby09-entries.htm

A new angle is born! The anti-dosage angle. The higher the dosage, the better the chance a horse has to win the Kentucky Derby.

Boxing the 3 highest dosages would have nailed the $41,500 trifecta for a $12 ticket. Who ever said that dosage was useless?!

--Dunbar

In this race, dosage was about as effective as the Beyer numbers. The horse with the worst Beyer numbers won the race. So does that mean that a new angle is born that the lower the Beyer number, the better chance a horse has to win the Kentucky Derby?

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Rupert Pupkin

In this race, dosage was about as effective as the Beyer numbers. The horse with the worst Beyer numbers won the race. So does that mean that a new angle is born that the lower the Beyer number, the better chance a horse has to win the Kentucky Derby?

Good point! The reverse Beyer angle is strong, but still not as effective as the reverse Dosage angle. You wouldn't have hit the exacta and trifecta using reverse Beyers. You would have had to be satisfied with nailing the winner.

Next year I'll be looking for 'dual qualifiers'. That would be horses like Mine That Bird that have ultra high dosage and aren't even ranked at all on the Experimental Free Hdcp.

--Dunbar

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Giacomo's dosage was in the mid 4's as well ... I think that was a big reason why he wasn't in the 25/1 to 30/1 range he figured to be.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Giacomo's dosage was in the mid 4's as well ... I think that was a big reason why he wasn't in the 25/1 to 30/1 range he figured to be.

Those chumps had a field day when Holy Bull lost the Derby "because his dosage was too high [at 5.00]."

The Bull got the last laugh.