Derby dosage angle
 

Okay, I never thought I'd start a thread with "dosage" in the title, but I couldn't resist shining a light on the stellar performance of the dosage angle in this year's Derby.

Mine That Bird's 5.40 dosage was the only dosage greater than 4.00 in this year's Derby. So, the only horse that should have been eliminated based on dosage was the horse that won.

The next two highest dosages in this year's Derby belonged to the 2nd and 3rd place horses: Musket Rat (4.00) and POTN (3.89).

http://www.horse-races.net/library/derby09-entries.htm

A new angle is born! The anti-dosage angle. The higher the dosage, the better the chance a horse has to win the Kentucky Derby.

Boxing the 3 highest dosages would have nailed the $41,500 trifecta for a $12 ticket. Who ever said that dosage was useless?!

--Dunbar

The whole thing is just completely laughable.
In MTB's case, according to dosage, the son of a Belmont/Travers winner should be tossed from a 10f race because of pedigree. Yeah, that makes sense.

Who buys into the dosage theory anyway? I mean .. besides Slewis and a few other random crazies who can't even figure out how they're calculated.

unbelievable. you are a swami.

that doesn't keep people from criticizing beyer speed figures.

Backfitting him. Exactly. Strike the Gold had something like a 6.00 dosage until he won the race and they re-worked some of his ancestors numbers. Voila....then he qualified......after the fact. I don't know if they ever reworked Creme Fraiche to qualify since he was something like a 20 or 21 dosage. They finally just gave up and said it was due to an off track.

In this race, dosage was about as effective as the Beyer numbers. The horse with the worst Beyer numbers won the race. So does that mean that a new angle is born that the lower the Beyer number, the better chance a horse has to win the Kentucky Derby?

What makes it a veryuseless tool for capping is that , while an evaluation of pedigree it always changes after the race is run. Would most call this redbording.

from what i can recall about dosage, since i haven't read about it in quite a while (i don't really think it's that good of a measure of a horses) dosage relies on the strength of the pedigree with chef de race stallions of course having better numbers. they earn being called chef de race by becoming sires of note. obviously this hasn't happened as yet with birdstone. horses who have gotten info reworked have had changes made because their sires achieved chef de race status. so, mine that bird won't have his dosage reworked, since it's way too soon for birdstone to become a CDR stallion- or he may never get it.

Can you do me a favor and post something like this the DAY before the Derby !!

Good point! The reverse Beyer angle is strong, but still not as effective as the reverse Dosage angle. You wouldn't have hit the exacta and trifecta using reverse Beyers. You would have had to be satisfied with nailing the winner.

Next year I'll be looking for 'dual qualifiers'. That would be horses like Mine That Bird that have ultra high dosage and aren't even ranked at all on the Experimental Free Hdcp.

--Dunbar

Giacomo's dosage was in the mid 4's as well ... I think that was a big reason why he wasn't in the 25/1 to 30/1 range he figured to be.

Those chumps had a field day when Holy Bull lost the Derby "because his dosage was too high [at 5.00]."

The Bull got the last laugh.