Who will be the "wise guy" horse???

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Old Yahoo Group Derby Trailers had at least a heads up about his potetial...
http://www.derbytrail.com/wp/?p=52

Steve, would you say that Dennis Of Cork was the wise guy horse last year? And he ran well....Sometimes they run well, sometimes they don't.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Steve, would you say that Dennis Of Cork was the wise guy horse last year? And he ran well....Sometimes they run well, sometimes they don't.

Denis of Cork had wiseguy elements ... a better than looked off the board finish in the merry go round like Illi Derby - but he was 27/1.

He wasn't bet either.

[randallscott35]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Denis of Cork had wiseguy elements ... a better than looked off the board finish in the Illi Derby - but he was 27/1.

He wasn't bet either.

Bzzzz. 27-1 is bet in the Derby. 50-1 is not. Plus, BB took a lot of money in the win spot. DOC was quite a bit different in the ex and tri pools if you ask me.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Bzzzz. 27-1 is bet in the Derby. 50-1 is not. Plus, BB took a lot of money in the win spot. DOC was quite a bit different in the ex and tri pools if you ask me.

Big Truck was 28/1 off of an 11th place finish in the Blue Grass.

Z Fortune was 19/1 - even though he was defeated in 3 straight Derby preps in Arkansas and Louisianna.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Bzzzz. 27-1 is bet in the Derby. 50-1 is not. Plus, BB took a lot of money in the win spot. DOC was quite a bit different in the ex and tri pools if you ask me.

His ordinal rank in the wagering was pretty much in line with his proven ability. I'd say last year really lacked a wiseguy horse, unless you want to say Pyro was somewhat that type (finishing 2nd to last in his final prep and still going off single digits.)

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

His ordinal rank in the wagering was pretty much in line with his proven ability. I'd say last year really lacked a wiseguy horse, unless you want to say Pyro was somewhat that type (finishing 2nd to last in his final prep and still going off single digits.)

Let me make sure I have the correct defintion of "wise guy" horse.

It's a horse without a pretty form in relation to the rest of the field who is being backed on the basis of better than looked races or projection for future improvement?

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Let me make sure I have the correct defintion of "wise guy" horse.

It's a horse without a pretty form in relation to the rest of the field who is being backed on the basis of better than looked races or projection for future improvement?

Wise guy horse to me is the horse or horses that have been largely left in that middle group of harder to envision possible winners (15-1 or more) coming up to Derby Week, that suddenly get noticed by media because they have a flashy move, look particularly terrific physically, etc.

That group of candidates moving towards Monday are the Godolphins, Square Eddie, Chocolate Candy, Hold Me Back and Musket Man.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

That's totally different than my definition.

I guess the term means different things to different people.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Wise guy horse to me is the horse or horses that have been largely left in that middle group of harder to envision possible winners (15-1 or more) coming up to Derby Week, that suddenly get noticed by media because they have a flashy move, look particularly terrific physically, etc.

That group of candidates moving towards Monday are the Godolphins, Square Eddie, Chocolate Candy, Hold Me Back and Musket Man.

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Let me make sure I have the correct defintion of "wise guy" horse.

It's a horse without a pretty form in relation to the rest of the field who is being backed on the basis of better than looked races or projection for future improvement?

I agree with Steve. The "chatter" horse.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by randallscott35

Steve, would you say that Dennis Of Cork was the wise guy horse last year? And he ran well....Sometimes they run well, sometimes they don't.

He was even 'wise guy-ish' before he got in. People were saying, "if only Denis of Cork could get in, he'd have a big shot'. It was actually funny because once he got in, people then went shopping for a new wiseguy horse as if they had let the secret out and everyone was going to be betting Denis of Cork.

[Pedigree Ann]

Stereotypical 'wise guy' horse is Saarland, who was always closing at shorter distances but hadn't won a prep race. Beautiful looking horse with a top-quality pedigree for a 10f who had won the Remsen at 2, which is rapidly becoming the kiss of death, so to speak. Actually started favorite in the Derby from all the wise-guy talk.