Who will be the "wise guy" horse???

wac · #1 04-23-2009, 08:53 PM

Dont know if this has been brought up yet and it may be a little early but im curious to who you guys think will be the horse for the Derby that gets a lot of action that we aren't thinking about right now? From the reports ive been reading i'll "bet" that its desert party which sucks for me b/c for some odd reason im drawn to the horse. I guess b/c i remember his first race at Arl and just thought it was a pretty good effort. And you have to think that as many times as the Sheik has thrown his shots he's gonna get one sooner or later. Sorry if this is a stupid question but we were talking about it at work today.

Habersham000 · #2 04-23-2009, 08:57 PM

If I had to guess it will be Hold Me Back even thought his only dirt attempt sucked but he has run very well this year and he closed well into slow fractions in the Blue Grass. But Desert Party is a good choice to possibly be the wise guy horse....I was thinking about this same thing today, glad you brought it up.

ateamstupid · #3 04-23-2009, 09:29 PM

Dunkirk or Desert Party.

wac · #4 04-23-2009, 09:44 PM

Haber, it just makes me wonder b/c when im at races and some horse that i figured would be 8-1 or so jumps down to like 5/2 it always makes me wonder what did i miss? Same thing with KD but i think the odds movements are a lot more volatile like a horse i figured would be 30-1 is 9-1. Just freaks me out sometimes.

ateam, what you think dunkirk's m/l then actual post time odds will be? im thinking m/l 10-1 post time 6-1.

robfla · #5 04-23-2009, 09:58 PM

Chocolate Candy

hockey2315 · #6 04-23-2009, 10:00 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by wac

Haber, it just makes me wonder b/c when im at races and some horse that i figured would be 8-1 or so jumps down to like 5/2 it always makes me wonder what did i miss? Same thing with KD but i think the odds movements are a lot more volatile like a horse i figured would be 30-1 is 9-1. Just freaks me out sometimes.

ateam, what you think dunkirk's m/l then actual post time odds will be? im thinking m/l 10-1 post time 6-1.

I think it'll be hard for Dunkirk to go down to 6-1 since IWR, Quality Road, and PoTN (debatable I guess) will probably take more money than him.

robfla · #7 04-23-2009, 10:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I think it'll be hard for Dunkirk to go down to 6-1 since IWR, Quality Road, and PoTN (debatable I guess) will probably take more money than him.

I think the betting is going to be similar to the 2007 edition with the fav @ almost 5:1 ( IWR ), two others at just under 10:1, ( QR and Dunkirk ) some mid-prices, and probably 10 or 12 @ 25:1 or more

South Beach Luv · #8 04-23-2009, 10:08 PM

I get ESPN the magazine, and of course they never have jack sh1t for horse racing coverage. Then they go ahead and put in something horse related in this issue and of course it's not a good story about the sport or the Derby coming up, it's about vets that have to put down horses on the track including a gruesome picture of a horse with 2 broken forelegs.
Then in a little sidebox they give their wiseguy horses.

Chocolate Candy
Desert Party

and Pioneer of the Nile - lol

jms62 · #9 04-24-2009, 06:04 AM

Absolutely 100% Dunkirk... My buddies in NYC who do not follow racing except on Derby day are already picking Dunkirk as the winner..

Hickory Hill Hoff · #10 04-24-2009, 06:11 AM

Pioneer of the Nile after Weds. work

ninetoone · #11 04-24-2009, 06:12 AM

I agree w/Desert Party. Trying not to be drawn in myself, although I'm already feeling the lure.

johnny pinwheel · #12 04-24-2009, 06:22 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by jms62

Absolutely 100% Dunkirk... My buddies in NYC who do not follow racing except on Derby day are already picking Dunkirk as the winner..

i agree, i think people will be surprised when he is overbet. the guy that writes for the saratogian (brendan O'meara) keeps saying that this will be pletchers , break through. so, i know there are plenty of folks on the bandwagon. there is alot of talk about square eddie too, who i feel has no shot in the race. but , the best horse does not always win the derby anyway.

2 Dollar Bill · #13 04-24-2009, 08:23 AM

Any of the Italian Horses ?

lemoncrush · #14 04-24-2009, 08:25 AM

I agree about Dunkirk. I think some casual fans might look at Chocolate Candy with Mike Smith and think it's "Giacomo" all over again, which I won't buy into at all.