Who will be the "wise guy" horse???

[King Glorious]

I'm thinking it will be Papa Clem. I think that the three main horses coming out of California (Pioneer, IWR, and Papa Clem) all had/have the dirt question to answer. IWR and PC both have answered it while Pioneer has yet to do so. Now that we know PC can run on the dirt, I think more attention is going to be put on the fact that he did finish ahead of IWR at Santa Anita. I know Old Fashioned got hurt in the running and a lot of people weren't impressed with the Arkansas Derby but for me, it was a really good effort. I could see Papa Clem dropping down to about the 7/1 or 8/1 range.

[jms62]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Your buddies who don't follow racing, except for Derby Days, are thus not anything close to " wise guys. "

Not saying they were Andy... I'm saying that wise guy horses get talked up and those with a casual interest and maybe a bookie or two get wind.. "Wise Guy" horse is not a positive thing to me. It is a overhyped, overbet horse who won't win.

[blackthroatedwind]

The true " wise guy " opinion in this year's KY Derby is that Pioneer of the Nile is a major bet against. There really is no " wise guy horse " to bet on.

[Habersham000]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The true " wise guy " opinion in this year's KY Derby is that Pioneer of the Nile is a major bet against. There really is no " wise guy horse " to bet on.

A lot of people I work with really like Pioneer of the Nile, some of these people have talked to the farm where he was broke and trained and they said he trained very well at that time on the dirt. Although he still hasn't run a race on it with dirt flying back and hitting him in the face I think he is still a must use especially since he has beat a 1/4 of the field that will be entered in the race.

[-BT-]

chocolate candy

-bt-

[slotdirt]

You mean I'm the only person on the West Side Bernie bandwagon? I figured the groundswell on W.S.B. would be well on its way to "wise guy" status by now.

[philcski]

All I know is if Quality Road isn't 100%, I have no idea where I'll end up.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by Habersham000

A lot of people I work with really like Pioneer of the Nile, some of these people have talked to the farm where he was broke and trained and they said he trained very well at that time on the dirt. Although he still hasn't run a race on it with dirt flying back and hitting him in the face I think he is still a must use especially since he has beat a 1/4 of the field that will be entered in the race.

Right, they are the anti-wise guys, which just furthers my point.

Once again, there is a misconseption of what a wise guy is around here. Like it or not.....The Fat Man is the " wise guy " of this board.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Right, they are the anti-wise guys, which just furthers my point.

Once again, there is a misconseption of what a wise guy is around here. Like it or not.....The Fat Man is the " wise guy " of this board.

DrugS and I have decided to name our pending foal(Straight Man- Notorious Girl) "Trackus" in honor of the Fat Man.. The foal should be born this week we will get the transceiver implanted shortly after the foal nurses.. Fatty will know whenever the weanie nurses or dumps..

[Antitrust32]

Originally Posted by philcski

All I know is if Quality Road isn't 100%, I have no idea where I'll end up.

I believe QR's second quarter crack saved you a lot of money

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

The true " wise guy " opinion in this year's KY Derby is that Pioneer of the Nile is a major bet against. There really is no " wise guy horse " to bet on.

This isn't much of a 'wise guy' pick. Every doofus with a bone to pick with POLY is against POTN.

A true 'wise guy' pick would be taking a stand against one of the 'conventional' darlings (i.e. high speed figure horses). This year, that would be Quality Road. Too bad all that quarter crack BS is going on; and will scare some supporters away.

[freddymo]

I have no bone to pick with poly just slow horses.. POTN is slow

[philcski]

When was the last time the "wise guy" horse actually WON the Derby? Or even hit the board???

And I don't want to hear Monarchos because he was a strong contender all season.

[slotdirt]

I don't know, how did Bandini work out in '05?

[the_fat_man]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I have no bone to pick with poly just slow horses.. POTN is slow

Is it a time trial?

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by slotdirt

I don't know, how did Bandini work out in '05?

People clearly have different definitions of "wise guy" horses, but personally I wouldn't classify a horse coming in off of a dominant win like Bandini had in the Bluegrass that year as a "wise guy" horse. Typically, when it comes to the Derby, I think wise guy horses are horses that did not win their final derby "prep" race, but the wise guys believe they have found a logical reason why that happened which is unlikely to repeat itself in the Derby. For me, it doesn't mean the same thing as simply an overbet horse.
To me, Desert Party fits the model more than any others this year. That doesn't mean he can't or won't win.

[blackthroatedwind]

Go for Gin was a wise guy horse coming off two major against the track losses.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Originally Posted by philcski

And I don't want to hear Monarchos because he was a strong contender all season.

Monarchos wasn't bet much at all in the Derby considering his good races in the Fla Derby and Wood.

That was by far the deepest Kentucky Derby field this decade ... and that complete no talent bum Dollar Bill was somehow the 2nd choice in the Derby betting after getting drubbed by like 8 lengths to Millenium Wind in the Blue Grass ... and losing to Fifty Stars with a massively overrated "bad trip" his start prior.

A classic example of a total slowpoke with not so cleverly disguised darkened form ... getting bet like mad into the teeth of many wildly superior horses.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by The Indomitable DrugS

Monarchos wasn't bet much at all in the Derby considering his good races in the Fla Derby and Wood.

That was by far the deepest Kentucky Derby field this decade ... and that complete no talent bum Dollar Bill was somehow the 2nd choice in the Derby betting after getting drubbed by like 8 lengths to Millenium Wind in the Blue Grass ... and losing to Fifty Stars with a massively overrated "bad trip" his start prior.

A classic example of a total slowpoke with not so cleverly disguised darkened form ... getting bet like mad into the teeth of many wildly superior horses.

He did pay over $20, but I recall a lot of unwarranted "wise guy" talk about him for whatever reason. I figured him to be a solid contender in a solid race. Dollar Bill was unquestionably the wise guy choise of the millenium in that race. Whether it was the deepest field this decade is debatable, it certainly was better than 2000, 2005, 2008; probably better than 2002, 2006, and 2007, and at least comparable to 2003, 2004, and this year.

Go For Gin would have been the last legitimate "wise guy" selection that won IMO.

[The Indomitable DrugS]

Like seven or eight of the horses coming into the Derby Dollar Bill's year had a race or two that made them look like friggin beasts.

I realize a lot of them weren't the type who figured to enjoy a fast paced 10 furlong race .. but the year was loaded to the gills with talented sharp horses.

I don't think it's debatable at all. That was the most impressive group coming into the Derby.