04-12-2009, 12:04 AM
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Ak-Sar-Ben
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Join Date: Oct 2007
Location: New Jersey
Posts: 654
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Quote:
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Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind
It would, of course, be nice to be able to always make decisions on what we have seen, but that isn't always the case, and in this year's Derby, if you are betting, you have to make a decision on Pioneer of the Nile, as he is one of the favorites. Here's what we have.....a horse that ran fairly well in his debut on the turf, and then ran slowly in a bunch of synthetic turf races, while earning a reputation based on the names of the races he ran in and not on his actual on track performances. Could he improve on the dirt? Of course, but he likely won't ( as few horses are proficient on all surfaces ), and at the odds he will be, based on how he has performed, he is a good horse to bet against.
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Your point makes sense but POTN odds the last 3 races have been ).30,1.70 and 1.30-1. It appears QUALITY ROAD, DUNKIRK, I WANT REVENGE and maybe FREISAN FIRE will be bet ahead of him. I think his backers won't mind 6-1 or 7-1 on him regardless of no dirt experience.
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