Interesting Developments
 

The Derby Trail is fun because you can over-analyze stuff and have an excuse for doing so. After today's results, there are some fairly interesting considerations:

* Papa Clem, who had a pretty good trip in the La. Derby, was man-handled by Friesan Fire. Papa Clem comes back to win today, what does that say about Friesan Fire?

* General Quarters beat Musket Man, Musket Man comes back to win the Illinois Derby, while General Quarters beats synthetic horses on their own turf. Is the West Florida contingent this good?

* Papa Clem is an okay horse on both surfaces, yet he lost to Pioneerof The Nile. Love POTN or hate him, you have to have a few ounces of respect for him.

* Terrain will likely finish 3rd or 4th in the Kentucky Derby, because it's what he does.

* Who is the pace in the Kentucky Derby now?

pace
 

If Old Fashioned goes he's the pace. How about Regal Ransom? Was on the pace in all 3 races in the desert. Alan Garcia up and by Distorted Humor?

Definitely some food for thought... Going to be a great betting race for sure and some juices prices. Hard to come out with a clear cut choice this year.

Pioneer was the big winner of the day. Horses that can't beat him in Cali are leaving and running huge and winning big races on dirt.

Friesan Fire is as good as I thought. Jones seemed to think all along that Old Fashioned was better but the horse that FF beat just beat Old Fashioned. I think Jones was wrong.

I think Musket Man is that good. I still don't think General Quarters is.

A couple of months back, I seem to remember hearing Jones suggest that FF might be as good or even better than OF

But POTN still hasn't run on dirt - maybe he beat those horses because he's better on the synthetics than they are. We still have no idea if POTN will take to the dirt.

It makes me wonder what would of happened if the track would of been fast that day

I disagree. The big winner of the day was Dunkirk, as the usuals came in 1-2 in Ark... so nobody passed him in graded earnings from the race.

You're absolutely correct. He did say that, and so far was a great assessment.

I already pointed out last week that POTN was a real value pick in the futures at 11-1, though it is fair to ask the question how will he fare on traditional dirt, it doesn't hurt that horses he has beaten are coming back to win big derby preps. To add another spin, I would say Baffert is a better dirt trainer than on syth tracks. He will be very interesting.

Good point.

Not sure whether or not the Arkansas Derby was any good, after only a couple brief viewings.

Exactly

I read somewhere that Regal Ransom is somewhat iffy?

I would not be surprised to see a west coast trifecta in derby, i believe John white just might be correct in his thinking syn-tracks to dirt building horses up for dirt.

I'll also add that in terms of Old Fashioned, I would probably go. Not only is there little pace, and maybe you can get lucky, but you'll help setup the pace for your stablemate.

One at a time.....

Maybe Papa Clem hated the mud....and more it says that the Arkansas Derby field sucked ( Old Fashioned is OK but severly distance challenged ).

General Quarters had a lousy trip in the Tampa Bay Derby, beat crows today, and probably improved on the fake turf.

Pioneer of the Nile is a turf/synthetic horse who barely beat dirt horses on a surface they didn't particularly care for....but will drown him on their preferred surface ( and his least favorite surface ) in a few weeks.

Terrain is a complete mediocrity who can't even make a dent in a race that fell in his lap on his preferred surface.

I supposed Old Fashioned is the main speed, unless his connections are smart enough to skip the Derby and run in the Met Mile, and that will have little affect on the race. But, without seeing all the pps this is a tougher one to answer.

He makes a great rabbit for Desert Party.

He surely does.

What are you basing this on? The fact that he's never run on dirt, or the fact that he's bred to like dirt?