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Originally Posted by King Glorious
Before IWR had run on the dirt, we didn't know if either of them would or wouldn't like it. IWR has now shown that he does but Pioneer hasn't shown that he doesn't. I don't jump to the automatic conclusion that IWR improves more on dirt than Pioneer does. If they both improve equally, then that would make Pioneer probably still better than IWR. What if Pioneer likes it more than IWR does?
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I'm operating under the assumption that he will not. That's based on Bill Mott's assessment that he was not a dirt horse by running him on turf or synthetics in three races last year. He has specialized in turf-like races where the last move wins.
I also thought Pioneer's trip in the Bob Lewis was better and you could really see I Want Revenge struggling with the track in the stretch.
Of course, it remains to be seen if A) I Want Revenge is just a one-hit wonder who benefited from a perfect trip in the Gotham or B) POTN will also move up on the dirt and prove that the California crop was simply unable to post respectable figures because of the synthetics.
I will gamble that POTN is a turf horse because it seems a safe bet that he's going to be overbet in the Derby relative to his overall ability.
NT
04-01-2009, 05:43 PM
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