4/4 (SA): Santa Anita Derby (G1); Arcadia, Potrero Grnade, Providencia (G2's)
 

6th (2:36) Santa Anita Derby (G1)

1 1/8 Miles (All Weather Track) | Open | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $750,000

1 Chocolate Candy Rosario J 122 L
2 Z Day Gryder A T 122 L
3 Unbridled Roman Baze T C 122 L
4 Pioneerof the Nile Gomez G K 122 L
5 Mr. Hot Stuff Nakatani C S 122 L
6 Feisty Suances Espinoza V 122 L
7 Take the Points Decarlo C P 122 L
8 Cape Truth Baze M C 122 L
9 Gallant Son Bejarano R 122 L
10 The Pamplemousse Solis A 122 L



Arcadia H. (G2)

1 Mile (Turf) | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Madeo Gomez G K 119 L
2 Booyah Baze M C 113 L
3 Desert Code Gryder A T 121 L
4 Holy Thunder Sorenson D 112 L
5 Global Hunter (ARG) Solis A 117 L
6 Mr Napper Tandy (GB) Rosario J 114 Blk-On L
7 Sky Cape Bejarano R 116 L
8 Dixie Chatter Baze T C 116 L
9 Becrux (ITY) Espinoza V 115 L



8th (3:37) Potrero Grande H. (G2)

6 1/2 Furlongs (All Weather Track) | Open | 4 Year Olds And Up Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 Davos Espinoza V 113 L
2 Halo Najib Bejarano R 114 L
3 Soul City Slew Baze M C 113 L
4 Sea of Pleasure Gomez G K 114 L
5 Paul's Hope Rosario J 115 L
6 Six Pack Abs Baze T C 115 L
7 Trumpet Player Jay Gryder A T 111 L



9th (4:07) Providencia S. (G2)

1 Mile (Turf) | Fillies | 3 Year Olds Stakes | Purse: $150,000

1 African Skies (GB) Nakatani C S 115 Blk-On L
2 Acting Lady Espinoza V 115 L
3 Air Fair Solis A 115 L
4 Will O Way Baze M C 121 L
5 Pasar Silbano (IRE) Rosario J 115 L
6 Pride Dancer (IRE) Gomez G K 115
7 Mrs Kipling (IRE) Flores D R 115
8 Fastongrass Blanc B 115 L
9 Oui Say Oui (IRE) Quinonez A 115 L
10 Burg Berg Baze T C 115 L
11 Rosy Mantle (GB) Bejarano R 115 L

I assume Z Day is running as POTN's rabbit.

I think the Wood has one, possibly two, horses that are better than these, but this is definitely the more interesting race.

You think IWR is better than POTN?

Yup.

Who wouldn't?

NT

No doubt that the horse was entered to make sure that The Pamplemousse is not alone on the lead with a slow pace. However, The Pamplemousse won his maiden dueling with Mayor Marv for the lead. But I would expect Z Day's jock to have instructions to set some blazing fast fractions for a 1 1/8 mile race -- it will be interesting to see if The Pamplemousse can relax and lay off those fast fractions as he would have to do to have a chance in the Derby.

Perhaps those that have seen Pioneer beat him twice. Maybe? I don't know.

Oui Say Oui will be a very good horse this year - anyone know owner / trainer..

Sure, Pioneer is much better on synthetics. Too bad the Derby's on dirt.

NT

Before IWR had run on the dirt, we didn't know if either of them would or wouldn't like it. IWR has now shown that he does but Pioneer hasn't shown that he doesn't. I don't jump to the automatic conclusion that IWR improves more on dirt than Pioneer does. If they both improve equally, then that would make Pioneer probably still better than IWR. What if Pioneer likes it more than IWR does?

I don't agree with any of this. First, I wouldn't even say that Pioneer is much better on synthetics. The two races were pretty close. Second, until anyone has proof that IWR likes dirt more than Pioneer, at this point, it's still conjecture and I would go with a bird in the hand (Pioneer's two wins) over the rest.

I'm operating under the assumption that he will not. That's based on Bill Mott's assessment that he was not a dirt horse by running him on turf or synthetics in three races last year. He has specialized in turf-like races where the last move wins.

I also thought Pioneer's trip in the Bob Lewis was better and you could really see I Want Revenge struggling with the track in the stretch.

Of course, it remains to be seen if A) I Want Revenge is just a one-hit wonder who benefited from a perfect trip in the Gotham or B) POTN will also move up on the dirt and prove that the California crop was simply unable to post respectable figures because of the synthetics.

I will gamble that POTN is a turf horse because it seems a safe bet that he's going to be overbet in the Derby relative to his overall ability.

NT

I don't disagree with any of this. Accept for the part about where Mott started him out. That doesn't mean much at all. What surface was Barbaro running on early? Big Brown? Lure? Kitten's Joy? Cigar? Zito continously placed Commentator in sprints. Sometimes, they get it wrong. And it's not even that they necessarily get wrong. Some horses, like the first three I mentioned, are good on both.

Only thing I'd say is that at this point, IWR does deserve the edge in a dirt race because he's proven he can handle it but I don't think he's proven he's better.

I keep hearing that. (I think Sadler is her trainer...)

* * *

No one can beat The Pamplemousse.

IMO, the bird in the hand would be a graded win on the dirt.

You give me Holy Bull versus Go Between on synthetic and I'm taking Holy Bull everytime. Why? Because he's a better horse. If Pioneer and IWR had never faced each other yet, then I would give the edge to IWR because of that known ability on the dirt. But to me, Pioneer's two wins cancel out the dirt advantage that IWR MAY have because we don't know that IWR actually does have it because Pioneer hasn't run on it.

Do you still think Stardom Bound is going to win the Derby?

Cigar started on the dirt, and ran quite well on it.

What about the fact that Terrain has finished ahead of Pioneer of the Nile both times when they have met on a synthetic track?

Does that make Terrain a better synthetic horse than POTN?