Notonthesamepage: 115 BSF

justindew · #1 01-05-2009, 02:26 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by philcski

Not going long he won't.

Keep him short and you have a serious horse.

You may be right, but with the FOY being a one-turn mile now, no reason he can't run big in that spot.

And if he doesn't, then they can run in the Swale.

When was the last time a 3-year-old ran a 115 BSF in January?

parsixfarms · #2 01-05-2009, 03:20 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

When was the last time a 3-year-old ran a 115 BSF in January?

When was the last time a 3YO ran a 110+ BSF early in his 3YO campaign and was a meaningful factor when the Derby rolled around?

SniperSB23 · #3 01-05-2009, 03:30 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

When was the last time a 3YO ran a 110+ BSF early in his 3YO campaign and was a meaningful factor when the Derby rolled around?

How often does a 3yo run a 110+ BSF early in their 3yo campaign? In January the only one I can find the past five years was Da Stoops in '06. And in February just Keyed Entry in '06. Not positive there were none in '04 and '07 but definitely none in '05 and I'm pretty sure there were none in '08.

parsixfarms · #4 01-05-2009, 04:04 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

How often does a 3yo run a 110+ BSF early in their 3yo campaign? In January the only one I can find the past five years was Da Stoops in '06. And in February just Keyed Entry in '06. Not positive there were none in '04 and '07 but definitely none in '05 and I'm pretty sure there were none in '08.

Read the Footnotes and Second of June ran real big numbers (113 BSF) in '04 Fountain of Youth.

SniperSB23 · #5 01-05-2009, 04:06 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

Read the Footnotes and Second of June ran real big numbers (113 BSF) in '04 Fountain of Youth.

Yeah, that was in '04. Was February 14th though so a lot later in the year. Chances are this horse is a sprinter but I don't think there are enough horses running this fast this early to say that a horse running this fast early can't be a factor come Derby time. He also ran a 104 last year in breaking his maiden and then stunk up the joint the rest of the year so we may be in for a repeat performance.

ateamstupid · #6 01-05-2009, 04:38 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SniperSB23

Yeah, that was in '04. Was February 14th though so a lot later in the year. Chances are this horse is a sprinter but I don't think there are enough horses running this fast this early to say that a horse running this fast early can't be a factor come Derby time. He also ran a 104 last year in breaking his maiden and then stunk up the joint the rest of the year so we may be in for a repeat performance.

There it is! The first "this three-year-old crop sucks" post of the year!

justindew · #7 01-05-2009, 03:36 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

When was the last time a 3YO ran a 110+ BSF early in his 3YO campaign and was a meaningful factor when the Derby rolled around?

It wouldn't surprise me if it's never happened.

philcski · #8 01-05-2009, 03:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

You may be right, but with the FOY being a one-turn mile now, no reason he can't run big in that spot.

And if he doesn't, then they can run in the Swale.

When was the last time a 3-year-old ran a 115 BSF in January?

Good point... I had forgotten that.

However, a mile still might be a stretch and I'll be betting against him in that spot.

Quote:

Originally Posted by parsixfarms

When was the last time a 3YO ran a 110+ BSF early in his 3YO campaign and was a meaningful factor when the Derby rolled around?

Smarty Jones ran a 110 in the Count Fleet...

but they didn't give it to him. They adjusted the number down to a 97.

10 pnt move up · #9 01-05-2009, 04:08 PM

So what did the mdn winner get a few races later, 102?

I know the later stake went in slow time as the race completely fell apart.

philcski · #10 01-05-2009, 04:43 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

So what did the mdn winner get a few races later, 102?

I know the later stake went in slow time as the race completely fell apart.

would have been 26 points lower with no split variant... so 89

Cannon Shell · #11 01-05-2009, 05:05 PM

I think the trainers history is more relevant. Ward has had a number of horses making debuts or coming off of layoffs that run out of their mind that never get back to that race. Not a criticism but his horses rarely have long campaigns.

-BT- · #12 01-06-2009, 05:54 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I think the trainers history is more relevant. Ward has had a number of horses making debuts or coming off of layoffs that run out of their mind that never get back to that race. Not a criticism but his horses rarely have long campaigns.

good point. Also, and i don't want to sound naive, but i've always thought of Ward as speed trainer. He's always been good w/ young horses going short, but i've never really seen him with any older horses /routers, not to say that he hasn't/doesn't train them, i just haven't seen any. I could be wrong, but thats just the notion i get when i think of Wesley Ward

-bt-

GBBob · #13 01-06-2009, 06:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by -BT-

good point. Also, and i don't want to sound naive, but i've always thought of Ward as speed trainer. He's always been good w/ young horses going short, but i've never really seen him with any older horses /routers, not to say that he hasn't/doesn't train them, i just haven't seen any. I could be wrong, but thats just the notion i get when i think of Wesley Ward

-bt-

There is a horse called Silver Bayer that sounds like typical W. Ward. Smoke Glacken yearling for $90K at Sept KEE Sale in '07. Won going 4F at GP I believe first or second time out in May of LY, then not a whole lot since ( I know..PPs would help, but don't have them).

philcski · #14 01-06-2009, 08:00 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Cannon Shell

I think the trainers history is more relevant. Ward has had a number of horses making debuts or coming off of layoffs that run out of their mind that never get back to that race. Not a criticism but his horses rarely have long campaigns.

That too

And it's a relevant criticism. I don't know why anyone would ever send him horses unless you wanted to win your first start at Kee going 4.5F and never see your horse again.

The Indomitable DrugS · #15 01-05-2009, 05:31 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by 10 pnt move up

So what did the mdn winner get a few races later, 102?

I know the later stake went in slow time as the race completely fell apart.

an 89

As for the win by Delightfull Kiss ... whats interesting about that race was that he came from about 20 out of it with a big wide sweeping move - in a race that wasn't exactly fast paced.

Maidens in the very next race, at the very same distance, went 23.27 and 46.11 - where the Hal's Hope went 23.80 and 46.51

wac · #16 01-05-2009, 06:06 PM

Yes the Valentine's day massacre(sp) with read the footnotes and second of june. I remember watching that vividly and saying afterwards how impressive and awesome the race was little did i know that it totally knocked both horses out and i dont think either one of them ever really recovered. I live in l'ville and i remember second of june getting hurt and having to be put down here at CD. Its so odd how with most horses you only have so many bullets to fire and it seems that these trainers have to space races and time them so perfectly to get there horse to peak at the right time specifically(sp) the first sat in May.

smuthg · #17 01-05-2009, 06:28 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by justindew

When was the last time a 3-year-old ran a 115 BSF in January?

Did Lost in the Fog put up those kinda of numbers? I know he had some big early 3YO BSF's

VOL JACK · #18 01-05-2009, 09:22 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by smuthg

Did Lost in the Fog put up those kinda of numbers? I know he had some big early 3YO BSF's

On December 26 of his 2yo season, LitF got a 109 at Turf Paradise in his 2nd career start. He went 21.80 44.73 107.26 113.55 while winning by 14.75 lengths.
His highest beyer was a 114 at BM on Oct.1 of his 3yo season. The race before the BC Sprint.

Athletics005 · #19 01-05-2009, 09:50 PM

I believe he got 116 twice. Once in the Carry Back at Calder and the other in the BM Speed Handicap not that theres a big difference.

Linny · #20 01-05-2009, 10:06 PM

High figs tend to be more attainable for young horses going short than long. (Most 3yo's are simply not being asked for top efforts going long in Jan.)
I think Chuck is right about 'capping the trainer. When was the last time Ward won a graded stake at a route? I see this horse as a sprinter and possibly a good one, IF he stays together.

If you are looking for your Derby horse though, look again, he ain't it!