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#241
08-31-2008, 09:36 PM
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Doug....called me stupid and slow, but just how are offshore betting odds and exchanges markets indicative of how the American people are gonna vote come Nov? If I could get over 2/1 that McCain/Palin will win come Nov, I'd be quite happy with it. 
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#242
08-31-2008, 09:39 PM
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#243
08-31-2008, 09:43 PM
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I thought I posted an opinion and you rejected it based on betting odds which I totally understand, but you did not prove anything about the odds with Romney, which was the candidate I had made the comparison with. And again, the exchange markets...? Relevance?
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#244
08-31-2008, 09:46 PM
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I think there are a large number of white democrats that won't vote for Obama for an undisclosed reason and overlooking this reason is giving the american people the benefit of the doubt. Don't be foolish.
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#245
08-31-2008, 09:50 PM
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#246
08-31-2008, 09:52 PM
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and I think he's right
__________________
"but there's just no point in trying to predict when the narcissits finally figure out they aren't living in the most important time ever." hi im god quote
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#247
08-31-2008, 09:53 PM
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Obama is going to get a whole lot of the "kids" voting in record numbers.
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#248
08-31-2008, 09:54 PM
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www.ehorsex.com Right now you can get over $3,000 worth of action on John McCain winning the presidentcy at 2/1 odds. They are only offering you $1,300 worth of action on Obama winning and at odds of slightly less than 1/2 favortisim. I think McCain is sucker bait at 2/1 - I'd hold out for a bigger price if I were you.
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#249
08-31-2008, 09:55 PM
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im guessing Hillary Clinton.
HC
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#250
08-31-2008, 09:57 PM
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But help me out please. How are those two things indicative of how people are gonna vote? I guess Im not seeing the relevance here.
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#251
08-31-2008, 10:05 PM
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I think he is assuming the betting public that would take on this sort of political wager will be a good indicator of how people are going to vote. I dont find this unreasonable. I would like to learn about the exchange market theory though...
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#252
08-31-2008, 10:09 PM
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But what % of that money is being wagered by Americans? I would think there has to be a huge margin of error based on the amount of money coming in from overseas.
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#253
08-31-2008, 10:20 PM
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But they may be betting based on polls they feel are reliable at this point in the race.
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#254
08-31-2008, 10:28 PM
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The same as how the odds on a boxing match are indicative of how the outcome of the fight will be. The same as how the money line of a football game is indicative of who will win the game. Why exactly did the betting go the way it has since Palin was named McCain's VP choice? How the hell would I know. However, people who think that she has made this a much tighter race are out of their mind. That much is clear.
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#255
08-31-2008, 10:33 PM
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#256
08-31-2008, 10:36 PM
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Im not trying to be a pain in the ass...but don't you think its harder to put faith in those type odds when the people that will be doing the voting (american citizens) have their money in the same "pool" as everyone else world? I could see if the offshore betting site had a seperate pool for american citizens and based their odds upon that. Those odds are reflective of how people worldwide feel who will win. Fortunately for us, people throughout the world don't vote to determine our president.
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#257
08-31-2008, 11:05 PM
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Again, you dont have the odds if McCain chose Romney. Is it possible McCain would take a dive no matter who he chose? I say hell yes its possible.
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#258
08-31-2008, 11:09 PM
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And this is what I was basically thinking. Imo they are giving way too much credit to those people have lots of money actually understanding what they are doing with it. They are gambling like any other market, only this type of gambling is very volatile and might be ridden with thrill seekers. I thought you were typing about the exchange rate of the dollar or something on the other topic. My bad.
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#259
08-31-2008, 11:39 PM
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#260
09-01-2008, 12:21 AM
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Had McCain selected Romney - as expected - I don't think the market and betting lines would have moved a penny. The markets and lines have been actively trending towards Obama since the morning it was announced McCain took Palin. What you don't know is why such a move. Most likely it's just a sustained betting overreaction to an unexpected and seemingly bad choice. If it keeps moving and moving and moving - at that point you would start to smell a rat. Palin went to the University of Idaho in the 80's... perhaps there are very compromising pictures of her that were laying around in someone's basement that are on the verge of being made public. There are rumors that her supposed 5th kid was really her 17-year-old daughters kid. The daughter was taken out of school for several months with mono while Palin announced she was 7 months pregnant despite not showing. She took an 8 hour flight to Alaska after saying her water broke. Maybe there is something to the rumor. There are reports that someone with the Obama team who does opposition research went through the archives of the Valley Frontiersman, Palin's hometown newspaper, and were the first ones to do so - meaning no one with McCain did. It might be possible they found something very compromising and are holding it. She is under investigation in Alaska for abuse of power. Perhaps there is more to that story.
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