mccain's vp

[The Indomitable DrugS]

I'm going to assume you are trolling me and not serious.

Still, I'll explain odds to you in horse racing terms. This was the result of a study that had a monster sample size of over 1.7 million starters.


Odds Group: ----- Starts: ------ Wins: ------ Win %:
.10 and .49 5,232 3,279 62.7%
.50 and .99 37,832 17,810 47.1%
1.00 and 1.99 127,878 42,384 33.1%
2.00 and 2.99 160,770 38,130 23.7%
3.00 and 3.99 146,444 26,658 18.2%
4.00 and 4.99 120,926 18,133 15.0%
5.00 and 5.99 99,186 12,451 12.6%
6.00 and 6.99 86,216 9,524 11.0%
7.00 and 7.99 75,891 7,330 9.7%
8.00 and 8.99 67,300 6,018 8.9%
9.00 and 9.99 60,439 4,692 7.8%
10.0 and 10.9 53,115 3,852 7.3%
11.0 and 11.9 47,781 3,127 6.5%
12.0 and 12.9 42,650 2,601 6.1%
13.0 and 13.9 37,929 2,097 5.5%
14.0 and 14.9 34,558 1,786 5.2%
15.0 and 19.9 131,289 5,699 4.3%
20.0 and 29.9 161,552 4,922 3.0%
30.0 and 39.9 94,676 1,696 1.8%
40.0 and 49.9 60,113 839 1.4%
50.0 and 59.9 40,150 391 1.0%
60.0 and 99.9 66,946 393 0.6%
100 & Greater 15,977 40 0.3%


As you can see - even money shots are always going to win at a higher percentage than 2/1 shots, 2/1 shots are always going to win at a higher percentage than 3/1 shots, 3/1 shots are always going to win at a higher clip than 4/1 shots and on and on.

Ok, so let's change Obama's name to Wait A While and pretend he's a horse. Let's change McCain's name to Black Mamba and pretend he's a horse. They are going to have a match race and the betting odds will reflect a big takeout reduction.

Wait A While with jockey Joe Bravo up is the early favorite. Black Mamba with a jockey TBA is the underdog at 7/5 odds.

Ok, Now, it is being announced that Shannon Uske has been named as the jockey for Black Mamba.

Subsequently, the odds tail up, Black Mamba is 8/5 after a few hours. 9/5 the next day, and finally drifts up to 2/1 odds.

Now, did the naming of Shannon Uske to ride Black Mamba increase the chances of victory? Clearly not.

Now, if you think Black Mamba is just plain better than Wait A While regardless of jockey, you are thrilled because you've got yourself a better price.

McCain is obviously not trying to cash a bet. He took Palin because he thought she would give him the best chance to win. The offshore betting lines and exchange markets are a better overall indicator of probability than anything else.

McCain simply took a gamble and it has backfired on him. Had he been able to move from the 7/5-to-3/2 range into the even money-to-6/5 range with his VP pick - I would have called it a brilliant move on his part even though I personally don't like Palin at all.