Visionaire

[MaTH716]

Originally Posted by kgar311

I believe the slop win in the Gotham will make him the fav. along with some back class. But I agree with all of the points you make. As far as Street Magician I dont see any races or works on a wet track, so how he'll handle the track is anyone guess.

Good Luck with your pick, but I seem to agree with everyone else. He came from way back in th Gotham and actually should have ran second, if it wasn't for a very premature move made by Arroyo on Texas Wildcatter. Plus with the condition of the track yesterday, it seemed that you had to be very close to the front to have any kind of chance. I just don't think that he has the kind of speed to be near the front. Does he really have backclass because he won the Gotham? From what I remember it wasn't a mosterous field.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by MaTH716

Good Luck with your pick, but I seem to agree with everyone else. He came from way back in th Gotham and actually should have ran second, if it wasn't for a very premature move made by Arroyo on Texas Wildcatter. Plus with the condition of the track yesterday, it seemed that you had to be very close to the front to have any kind of chance. I just don't think that he has the kind of speed to be near the front. Does he really have backclass because he won the Gotham? From what I remember it wasn't a mosterous field.

I never said he was my pick, I just questioned the ML. Hes been keeping pretty good company compared to a horse that hasnt been out since January.
I also seemed to agree with most of the people on here too.

[Gander]

Morning lines are one man's opinion of how he thinks the public will bet. Its made 36 hours prior to post and means nothing. The guys in Vegas who do the point spreads are real good at it. The guys who typically do the ones for horse racing are novices.

I got a real laugh yesterday hanging around with non track goers telling me such and such horse is going off at this price, 4 hours before the race even went off. I tried telling them to ignore the morning lines but they continuously were giving the morning line odds out all day long instead of what was currenlt on the monitors, you know the real odds?

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by Gander

Morning lines are one man's opinion of how he thinks the public will bet. Its made 36 hours prior to post and means nothing. The guys in Vegas who do the point spreads are real good at it. The guys who typically do the ones for horse racing are novices.

I got a real laugh yesterday hanging around with non track goers telling me such and such horse is going off at this price, 4 hours before the race even went off. I tried telling them to ignore the morning lines but they continuously were giving the morning line odds out all day long instead of what was currenlt on the monitors, you know the real odds?

So his opinion is the public will not back a horse in an optional claiming race that has already won a graded stakes, ran in the Kentucky Derby, Blue Grass and just ran a solid 3rd to Pyro and My Pal Charlie.
It just makes me think two things, either this guy wants a nice price on this horse or he knows something is wrong with him. Id feel a little more comfortable with the race if he was 3-1 or 7/2. But like you said ML are usually guides and I rarely go by them either.

[dalakhani]

Originally Posted by kgar311

So his opinion is the public will not back a horse in an optional claiming race that has already won a graded stakes, ran in the Kentucky Derby, Blue Grass and just ran a solid 3rd to Pyro and My Pal Charlie.
It just makes me think two things, either this guy wants a nice price on this horse or he knows something is wrong with him. Id feel a little more comfortable with the race if he was 3-1 or 7/2. But like you said ML are usually guides and I rarely go by them either.

Its interesting how people judge the transition from graded restricted company to unrestricted allowance. It will be interesting in this particular race because i wouldnt be surprised in which ever direction the odds end up.

On top of all that has already been mentioned, this has been an unusually weak class and you have to figure that will be taken into account.

[Bobby Fischer]

with Roi Maudit and Callmetoney out ...
Visionaire ought to get a lot of love from the fans.
Still some decent rivals.

[kgar311]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

with Roi Maudit and Callmetoney out ...
Visionaire ought to get a lot of love from the fans.
Still some decent rivals.

Awww last years Travers "contender" is out also.(Loose Leaf)