Derby Post Question

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by munster705

Hey Guys

Havent posted in a while, but the juices always get flowing during Triple Crown season. I was having a discussion with my father about post positions. He likes Smooth Air and he said he is betting the horse underneath Big Brown and to win no matter what. So I basically posed the question about post position to him. I asked him what if Smooth Air or Big Brown draws the 20 hole? Then we got into a debate about what the worst post is. I say its the 20 hole because you have no chance to get any kind of good trip because youll be wide the whole trip. He says the 1 hole because you are jammed on the rail.

I don't like the 1 post in the Derby, but the 20 has to be as bad as it can get.

[jwkniska]

well, normally the last 3 posts picked are 20-19-1

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by IrishofNDMan

I don't like the 1 post in the Derby, but the 20 has to be as bad as it can get.

I think it depends on your horse... I think Street Sense wins that race last year even if he starts from the parking lot. That being said, for 99% of horses, I would think that anything outside of 17 or 18 would be worse than the 1 hole.

[Gander]

I think post positions are the single most over thought out factors in horse racing. Especially for a closer like Smooth Air. Especially in the Derby when any horse has an excellent chance of getting into trouble.

[Thunder Gulch]

It definately depends on your running style, as well as, the running style of those around you. The #1 post has produced more winners than any post in the history of the Derby, though most of that was when the fields were smaller. I think Ferdinand was the last to win there in 86, and he came from off the pace. There has been a decent run over the last several years from the posts near the auxilary gate because those tended to give you a little more racing room as they got away.

[Mike]

It is interesting that posts 15 and 16, the first two in the auxillary gate, have done well in the Derby. 17 and out are horrible. The evidence is getting weaker for the two aforementioned posts(*15,16), so I'll re-look at it

[Mike]

Posts 15 and 16 have won 5 of the last 12 Kentucky Derby's in which there have been 16 or more runners

[miraja2]

Don't forget that if Gayego gets an outside post, his jock might just keep him 15-to-20 wide around both turns.

[smuthg]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Don't forget that if Gayego gets an outside post, his jock might just keep him 15-to-20 wide around both turns.

what's this "might" stuff...

[whodey17]

I think post really doesnt matter for Smooth Air. Post will be more important for Big Brown. If he is in the 20 hole then I think he has no chance at winning.

[2Hot4TV]

Originally Posted by DaHoss9698

I don't think you necessarily are assured a bad trip from the 20 post. A closer can always drop back and a horse with some early speed can use it to get position.

When was the last time a real closer won the Kentuckey Derby? Seems to me that you have to be mid pack or better to have a chance in a 20 horse field.

[miraja2]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

you have to be mid pack or better to have a chance in a 20 horse field.

Ummmm......did you watch the race last year?

[3kings]

Originally Posted by miraja2

Ummmm......did you watch the race last year?

I would also concider Giacomo a dead closer.......2005?

[whodey17]

Originally Posted by 3kings

I would also concider Giacomo a dead closer.......2005?

Grindstone wasnt a closer, but he came from far back

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by 2Hot4TV

When was the last time a real closer won the Kentuckey Derby? Seems to me that you have to be mid pack or better to have a chance in a 20 horse field.

LOL, thanks, I needed that.

[hockey2315]

I seem to remember Durkin saying something to the effect of "and Street Sense is 19th in the early going!"

[IrishofNDMan]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

I seem to remember Durkin saying something to the effect of "and Street Sense is 19th in the early going!"

I was just going to post this, if coming from 19th to win it doesn't say deep closer, then what does?