Derby Post Question
 

Hey Guys

Havent posted in a while, but the juices always get flowing during Triple Crown season. I was having a discussion with my father about post positions. He likes Smooth Air and he said he is betting the horse underneath Big Brown and to win no matter what. So I basically posed the question about post position to him. I asked him what if Smooth Air or Big Brown draws the 20 hole? Then we got into a debate about what the worst post is. I say its the 20 hole because you have no chance to get any kind of good trip because youll be wide the whole trip. He says the 1 hole because you are jammed on the rail.

I don't like the 1 post in the Derby, but the 20 has to be as bad as it can get.

well, normally the last 3 posts picked are 20-19-1

I think it depends on your horse... I think Street Sense wins that race last year even if he starts from the parking lot. That being said, for 99% of horses, I would think that anything outside of 17 or 18 would be worse than the 1 hole.

I think post positions are the single most over thought out factors in horse racing. Especially for a closer like Smooth Air. Especially in the Derby when any horse has an excellent chance of getting into trouble.

It definately depends on your running style, as well as, the running style of those around you. The #1 post has produced more winners than any post in the history of the Derby, though most of that was when the fields were smaller. I think Ferdinand was the last to win there in 86, and he came from off the pace. There has been a decent run over the last several years from the posts near the auxilary gate because those tended to give you a little more racing room as they got away.

It is interesting that posts 15 and 16, the first two in the auxillary gate, have done well in the Derby. 17 and out are horrible. The evidence is getting weaker for the two aforementioned posts(*15,16), so I'll re-look at it

Posts 15 and 16 have won 5 of the last 12 Kentucky Derby's in which there have been 16 or more runners

Don't forget that if Gayego gets an outside post, his jock might just keep him 15-to-20 wide around both turns.

what's this "might" stuff...

I think post really doesnt matter for Smooth Air. Post will be more important for Big Brown. If he is in the 20 hole then I think he has no chance at winning.

I think that, excluding the terrible posts (1, 18-20), post is important only in relation to who you draw near.

He got it done with the virtual impossible post in the FL Derby, so I wouldnt see how he cant get it done from post 20 in the Derby. Sure, its quite a bit wider, but the track configuration is a lot more fair at Churchill than Gulfstream... they have a longer way to the first turn in this race. Big Brown's speed should get him into good position. There are only 2-3 horses who could possibly outsprint him early- BBJ, Recapture and Gayego.
I wouldnt want any horse at 2/1 in the Derby though.

Post 20 didn't hurt Clyde Van Dusen back in 1929. Since then post 20 is winless. Aside from Clyde, only one horse has won from post 17 and out... Gato Del Sol from post 18 in 1982.

When was the last time a real closer won the Kentuckey Derby? Seems to me that you have to be mid pack or better to have a chance in a 20 horse field.

Ummmm......did you watch the race last year?

I would also concider Giacomo a dead closer.......2005?

True, but the caliber of horses in the Florida Derby was pathetic. He might get the lead with his speed, but I wouldnt be so confident in him making the 1 1/4 distance if he goes :22.1 for the first quarter. And no thank you at 2-1 or even 5-1.

Grindstone wasnt a closer, but he came from far back