Prado on Adriano

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

I don't think Prado thinks any of those horses have a big chance, otherwise he would've committed earlier.

ok i can agree with that... but this is the KENTUCKY DERBY, he is going to ride the horse that he feels give's him the best shot to win, do you agree ?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

ok i can agree with that... but this is the KENTUCKY DERBY, he is going to ride the horse that he feels give's him the best shot to win, do you agree ?

Sure.. Or if the difference is negligible, he might choose loyalty. If he thought Tale of Ekati or Monba had legitimate shots to win, he'd be on one of them. Says something about them that he chose the horse who's yet to prove anything on dirt, I think.

[jcs11204]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Sure.. Or if the difference is negligible, he might choose loyalty. If he thought Tale of Ekati or Monba had legitimate shots to win, he'd be on one of them. Says something about them that he chose the horse who's yet to prove anything on dirt, I think.

i was going to say something like that earlier..... i throw monba and tale of ekati out now.... adriano was horrible on dirt in the FOY, and that race has came back to be a horrible race, no one has come back to win, and he was beaten badly, never ran a good or even decent race on dirt, and prado picks him over... the wood winner and the bluegrass winner....

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by jcs11204

i was going to say something like that earlier..... i throw monba and tale of ekati out now.... adriano was horrible on dirt in the FOY, and that race has came back to be a horrible race, no one has come back to win, and he was beaten badly, never ran a good or even decent race on dirt, and prado picks him over... the wood winner and the bluegrass winner....

I was on the fence about both, and I still am, but this certainly doesn't give me any more confidence in them.

[Riot]

From bloodhorse.com (excerpted)

“I knew it was going to be a tough choice for him, and it obviously makes me feel good about everything,” trainer Graham Motion said. “Edgar rode for me when I first started training. I’m not sure we both didn’t have our first stakes winner in New York together. So, we certainly go back a long way. We’ve always had a rapport and I’ve always felt the most comfortable with him riding the horses. When he won the Lane’s End, he didn’t have any other Derby mounts, so we discussed having him ride the horse back then. Then he goes and wins two grade I stakes leading up to the Derby.

“One of the reasons I worked Adriano at Churchill Downs this week was to let Edgar get a feel for him on the track and see what he thought. It was as much for his benefit as for mine. He wanted to see for himself before he made his decision, and I wanted to see for myself before I made my decision. I was tickled when he turned into the stretch and he showed that extraordinary stride when Edgar asked him. I let him do as he pleased, sort of like taking out a new car for a spin. He let him roll the last part, and I clocked him in :11 and change for the final eighth. When Edgar asked him he really took off from his workmate, who is a very useful stakes winner.”

[IrishofNDMan]

I will still be using Tale Of Ekati in all spots of my ticket, can't say the same for Adriano however.

[bogeydaman]

[quote=DaHoss9698]adriano was horrible on dirt in the FOY, and that race has came back to be a horrible race QUOTE]

As mentioned from another poster, Adriano came back to win. Also Monba was in the FOY (won the Bluegrass). Other horses that came back and "ran respectively / well" include Golden Spikes (2nd in Hawthorne Stakes), Court Vision (3rd in Wood), Kentucky Bear (3rd in Bluegrass). Thats almost 1/2 the field that came back and hit the board in G1/G2 stakes in their next starts. Not sure how that translates to a horrible race?

Funny how things change in 2 months. The week of the race everyone on this board was amazed at the depth of that field. Now it is a horrible race? I think when you go back and look at that field at the end of the year at least 3/4 of this field will win a graded stakes race this year.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by bogeydaman

I think when you go back and look at that field at the end of the year at least 3/4 of this field will win a graded stakes race this year.

NO WAY 3/4 of the field. But some of them will win graded stakes- not because they're good- but because there's no one else out there to win them.

[bogeydaman]

Originally Posted by hockey2315

NO WAY 3/4 of the field. But some of them will win graded stakes- not because they're good- but because there's no one else out there to win them.

Someone in the biz told me there were somewhere in the range of 35,000 3 year olds of racing age this year. So there are about 35000 "ones" that can "win them".

Not sure why you would be interested in the game if you think 35,000 3 year olds are "not good".

[ShadowRoll]

"Obviously I'm thrilled, not only that Edgar's riding him, but that, in doing so, he's endorsing the horse," Motion said.

http://www.drf.com/news/article/93732.html

So, apparently Motion looks at Prado's choice as an endorsement of the horse. Or is this just trainer-speak? One thing that bothers me greatly about Adriano is Motion's concerns that the horse won't handle the crowd at the Derby.

[hockey2315]

Originally Posted by bogeydaman

Someone in the biz told me there were somewhere in the range of 35,000 3 year olds of racing age this year. So there are about 35000 "ones" that can "win them".

Not sure why you would be interested in the game if you think 35,000 3 year olds are "not good".

How many of those 35,000 make it to the track? Out of the ones that do, how many break their maidens? How many actually make it to graded stakes? How many actually win graded stakes? Personally I don't care how good they are.

Just because this year's talent is down doesn't mean I can't enjoy the racing and more importantly it doesn't mean I can't generate opinions on which ones are a little less bad than the rest so that I can bet them.