Bernadini/the reason for my doubts

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Sorry, but I have a significantly different take on Songster, and said as much at Siro's yesterday morning. Yeah, I figured he would probably win yesterday, but only because the field was weak, but I still used an all in that race in my ( losing ) Pick-4 play. Simply put, I thought he was all dressed up with nowhere to go, and his previous two races were FAR from spectacular and merely the result of perfect trips ( coupled with Toomuchbling's bad one ). As a horseplayer, I am very careful about relying heavily on overbet favorites who are nowhere near as good as their undeserved reputations. There was little question in my mind that Songster fit that bill.

The idea that someone could watch that race, see the obvious premature move that Prado made, and then go on a tirade ( calling the trainer " incompetent " and a " dwarf " among other things ) and blame him for somehow disingenously running a " short " horse, all the while proclaiming himself to be some sort of respected person in the sport is as incredible to me as it is insulting in general. The simple truth is that if this horse was truly worth his odds he would have won in spite of the mediocre ride and he still would have won if in fact he was " short ", something I HIGHLY doubt. As I said before, I think he ran as well as he did in either of his last two races.

The person who should be mad, and unlike the author of this thread he is most likely blaming only himself, is Allen Jerkens, who almost certainly would have won the Amsterdam with Saint Damon had he run yesterday instead of Sunday. Or, perhaps, you think he is screaming something akin to " if I had only known that " expletive deleted " Albertrani was going to lie and run a short horse I would have scratched Sunday ".

The first thing I said to Steve after the race was how stupid the trainers were who did not enter the race because they were scared of Songster. I feel he would have finished off the board had enough decent horses entered. When playing a pik-4 the odds a horse goes off at are a different story than the odds on a horse you might bet to win. Noone alive is going to take 1-5 on a horse on a win bet or even in a dd bet, there is simply no value available.
The horse had numbers and his "perfect trips" were against horses who were MUCH better than those. Knock Bling all you want but hes won nicely since then and won nicely before his last race as well. The horse probably fell at least 5 points on Thoro.
I disagree with Edgar's ride. I thought it was great. The outside part of the track was DEFINITELY the place to be and on the backside he was very careful to keep him well removed from the rail. He also postioned him right off two dueling leaders and didn't realy ask him to make the lead, the horse did so willingly. Were the fractions fast? Yes. But the Songster who had been showing up to the races this year certainly wasn't the one who showed up yesterday. he was obviously beaten at the top of the lane when a wilted el nino came back at him. Prado rode the horse exactly as you want a guy to ride a horse. Now, the horse was obviously short. That happens. To say how ready he was means the trainer was either lying or had misjudged his fitness. I believe very strongly that the trainer will use being short as an excuse at some point before his next race. Which means he either lied or was incompetent in asessing his horses' fitness.

[blackthroatedwind]

So, you didn't think he was worth 1-5, but you still singled him despite feeling the need to use eight horses in the finale. Really? Sounds like instead of blaming Albertrani you should be blaming yourself as you made one HORRENDOUS bet.

And don't come back with " but I was trying to beat Biancone's horse " or any such hogwash, as the simple fact is you anchored your ticket with a horse you knew was going to be 1-5 and are now agreeing you knew he wasn't that good. There seems to be a substantial difference between the truth and the facts.

Once again....he did not run any worse than either of his two previous races.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

So, you didn't think he was worth 1-5, but you still singled him despite feeling the need to use eight horses in the finale. Really? Sounds like instead of blaming Albertrani you should be blaming yourself as you made one HORRENDOUS bet.

And don't come back with " but I was trying to beat Biancone's horse " or any such hogwash, as the simple fact is you anchored your ticket with a horse you knew was going to be 1-5 and are now agreeing you knew he wasn't that good. There seems to be a substantial difference between the truth and the facts.

Once again....he did not run any worse than either of his two previous races.

Hogwash? Well lets see, he was 8-5 despite showing only 3 published workouts and was overbet I thought(although he may have been best to be totally honest) off his expensive purchase price. Hushion's horse in the next leg always spots the field a football field in lengths and with that outside post was definitely beatable. The last race was simply inscrutable to me, moreso because not only were they evenly matched, but i felt that there was an outside bias that work agaisnt the prime contenders who all had speed. I think it was quite logical to think that a price could come in any of those three races and in two of those races very likely.
Actually had I gone one more deep in the race I would have taken Noonmark who was absolutely dreadful. No way I was ever going to play the winner, none. So its not like it cost me the 190 grand that the winning ticket paid to the winners.
As far as his price goes, I don't know a horse alive that anyone with a brain would ever bet at 1-5. Its simply silly. But trying to construct a pik-4 where you see possible value in three legs and use a very likely winner as an anchor is not at all foolish provided your opinion on the other races is good.

[blackthroatedwind]

I understand that in order to play the Pick-4 that YOU CHOSE TO PLAY you needed a single somewhere. However, you chose Songster, and instead of moving on chose to call his trainer everything from a liar to a dwarf. It is that behavoir that I find reprehensible.

Once you realize doing that was, at best, a mistake we can move on to a logical explanation of why Songster ran a similar race yesterday to his two previous efforts. Frankly, if you can't just say your previous comments were a mistake, I have nothing further to say. Sorry if I believe Tom Albertrani deserves just a little more respect than that.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I understand that in order to play the Pick-4 that YOU CHOSE TO PLAY you needed a single somewhere. However, you chose Songster, and instead of moving on chose to call his trainer everything from a liar to a dwarf. It is that behavoir that I find reprehensible.

Once you realize doing that was, at best, a mistake we can move on to a logical explanation of why Songster ran a similar race yesterday to his two previous efforts. Frankly, if you can't just say your previous comments were a mistake, I have nothing further to say. Sorry if I believe Tom Albertrani deserves just a little more respect than that.

Hes either a liar or incompetent in this case. Once the figs come out if he has indeed run his usual race I will retract every statement and offer Mea Culpas. So if the figs come out lower will that be an indication that he did NOT run his typical race? Or is it just that its that way because you say so?

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by oracle80

Hes either a liar or incompetent in this case. Once the figs come out if he has indeed run his usual race I will retract every statement and offer Mea Culpas. So if the figs come out lower will that be an indication that he did NOT run his typical race? Or is it just that its that way because you say so?

Nothing like being a man of one's word.

[blackthroatedwind]

Jerry will give me the number if I call him ( I'm also sure Byk can get it ) but they probably haven't even done it yet.

The race was pretty fast and anyone that understands comparing relative time knows that. You don't need the actual figs to know that Songster's effort matches up reasonably well to his previous ones. It's merely a question of objectivity.

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I understand that in order to play the Pick-4 that YOU CHOSE TO PLAY you needed a single somewhere. However, you chose Songster, and instead of moving on chose to call his trainer everything from a liar to a dwarf. It is that behavoir that I find reprehensible.

Once you realize doing that was, at best, a mistake we can move on to a logical explanation of why Songster ran a similar race yesterday to his two previous efforts. Frankly, if you can't just say your previous comments were a mistake, I have nothing further to say. Sorry if I believe Tom Albertrani deserves just a little more respect than that.

And I find calling leading trainers punks and cheaters equally as bad.

[GPK]

*GPK dips in the popcorn bowl and awaits the return volley*

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by GPK

*GPK dips in the popcorn bowl and awaits the return volley*

lol
hey kev, how's things?
and i'm gnawing on dinner while reading this. very entertaining.

now back to your regularly scheduled programming....

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by oracle80

And I find calling leading trainers punks and cheaters equally as bad.

So do I...and when you find me doing either on feel free to draw as much attention to it as you like.

Let's see how much Oracle makes fun of Albertrani if he has a 100K pick 6 on the line with Bernardini singled on Travers day. I suspect the dwarf will become a giant overnight if he wins and Oracle is cashing the ticket. I just think it is crazy to get personal about it because are you going to leave Songster off the Pick 6 ticket in the Kings Bishop just because you don't like the way he trains? Sounds like a way to get burnt to me.

Originally Posted by boldruler

Let's see how much Oracle makes fun of Albertrani if he has a 100K pick 6 on the line with Bernardini singled on Travers day. I suspect the dwarf will become a giant overnight if he wins and Oracle is cashing the ticket. I just think it is crazy to get personal about it because are you going to leave Songster off the Pick 6 ticket in the Kings Bishop just because you don't like the way he trains? Sounds like a way to get burnt to me.

I will bet him Albertrani or any trainer if I feel his horse has a chance to win. Its stupid to toss a horse out because of a reason like you say. I think Henny Hughes will be EXTREMELY tough to beat in the Kings Bishop though.

[blackthroatedwind]

The Amsterdam got a 108 Beyer Speed figure....Songster got a 104 or one point higher than he earned in the Woody Stephens and three points less than the Hirsch Jacobs.

hes an incompetent little fraud Tbred!!!