Bernadini/the reason for my doubts
 

Ok, noone with a brain larger than a pea is going to argue that Bernadini's talent exceeds the talent of 99.999999999999999% of the talent that tbreds are born with.
His Preakness wins and Jim Dandy wins were great. I expect him to win the Travers in grand style. But before anyone annoints him as the greatest ever or speculates on what he will be before he is through, I have to express serious concerns with how much he will accomplish. It centers on his trainer.
I realize Tom Albertrani is a friend of Steve's and a nice guy, but Pletcher, Dutrow,Mott,McGaughey,Baffert,Frankel or Mandella he ain't, to say the least.
Yesterday he sent out a 1-9 shot that he proclaimed was ready to run. The horse was dead short and he ought to be embarassed about sending out a 1-9 shot that overmatched the field who staggered that badly down the lane. Now it was he, not I or anyone else, who spoke in an article on the front page of the DRF about how you had to run them when they wanted to run, he was ready, etc. He obviously misjudged the fitness of the animal and got him beat. Now if he can screw up one like that he can screw up any horse.
Training a horse through a long hard campaign and trying to avoid bounces and have them at optimal fitness level is a very hard thing to do. Were Mandella, Baffert, Frankel,Mcgaughey, Dutrow,Mott or pletcher traning this horse I might agree that he is going to run the table. But they aren't training him, tom Albertraini is. And that my friends is the rub. At this point he is so much more talented than the rest of the three year olds standing that he can beat them on sheer talent alone. But when he goes to face Flower Alley, Invasor and even lava Man its going to be a different story. Only the masters make that leap up with a three year old or into the fray with a developing older horse.
Obviously in the business I feel that the trainer is as important as the horse when you reach the highest level. There is a reason that the same guys win over and over again at the highest level, and its because they are masters of their craft. Raw talent will take you to a certain level and then its as much the trainer as it is the horse.
If the guy can err so badly on Songster(he ought to be very embarassed, the horse wagged his tail down the lane against a field he should have slaughtered), why will he not err in the future with Bernadini? People are creatures of habit, and I just don't trust his trainer to guide him to the highest of all levels.

I couldn't disagree more with a number of points in this thread. First of all, Tom Albertrani is a highly respected trainer and it is my understanding that he is largely credited for the care of Cigar while working with Bill Mott. Anyone who could fool the public into thinking that horse was " great " MUST be damn good.

However, more importantly, I couldn't possibly disagree more about your assessment of Songster. First of all, this horse was clearly FAR from a worldbeater, and his results definitely dressed up his actual talent. He had gotten two absolutely perfect setups in a row and only beat Toomuchbling last time because of that one's poor draw and subsequent problematic trip. He was a proverbial accident waiting to happen. So....what happened yesterday? Prado gave him a terrible ride. Instead of relaxing the horse, he arrogantly sent him WAY to soon, moving to the lead in a very fast pace midway around the turn. Hardly surprising, especially when you consider how badly the other speeds tired ( and neither one of them were terrible horses ), that he tired some late and the one closer in the race was able to make a run. The final time was good and I would say Songster ran a figure reasonably close to his previous races even with the poorly timed ride. The bottom line is this horse had overachieved, and if anything Albertrani deserves some of the credit for this, and he performed admirably considering the way things unfolded yesterday.

I'm impressed with Bernardini, and like you expect him to win the Travers, but I will withhold final judgement until the JCGC and BC Classic. He's a very good horse, though untested, but unlike you I believe Albertrani will work in his favor.

Bit harsh. You're right of course that Albertani is not in the same league as the other trainers but you can't blame him that the horse got bet to 1/9. He didn't look THAT good....

1. At some point they all lose. 1/9 is never a right price. You either pass or decide to single or toss and go wide looking for a big p3, p4 or p6.

2. While Albertani said he was ready, the main goal still had to be the G1, not yesterday's race.

3. If not for the perfect trip he got in his prior race while Bling was getting tripped/ridden out of any winning chance, this horse might have lost that race by 2-3 lengths instead of winning by two. That alone would have made him 3/5 yesterday.

I don't disagree with your premise, I just don't think the horse looked that good. Then again, I'm still reeling from Sunday. A horse that I've thought was sitting on a nice win his last three races at Calder with my favorite So Flo trainer that I sunk $240 into his last three starts at double digit odds was up very slightly in class Sunday. $58 to win. I passed. Go figure.

Blackthroat it was Simon Bray and Albertrani who were indeed assistants during the Cigar times.
But both of you guys will have to enlighten me about Albertrani's prior great training jobs.

Oracle, did you have Songster singled on your tickets?

Also, what is going on with Wilko and his trainer?

Yeah i would have had the pik-4 and that imcompetent Albertrani cost me about 5 grand. I hope for nothing but ill will for that bald little lowlife midget. Hes lucky he has fast horses because he cant train a dam. Hes a total moron.

He will screw up Bernadini, wait and see.

Perhaps one of you guys could tell me all about a great training job hes done in the past with a horse? There was umm, and umm, ummm, well Bernadini, who is just so talented that he hasnt screwed him up yet, but he will.

I like Tom and think he is capable, but if you do not then that is fine and i understand your opinion. However, I still offer this fact relating "special" horses...not "Good" horses, but "Special" horses - because this is what I believe he is.....

The bottomline is that Special horses are dangerous under anybodys care (and Yes, I like Tom and think he is fitting as a solid conditioner) Just look at Seattle Slew with Bill Turner...prime example...

I suppose thats true but again he was replaced after the Swaps loss and did not train him at age 4. Three year olds who are truly special can win under anyone's care, I myself have said this many times. But when you step up and face older its a whole new game. He couldnt shine Todd's shoes.

Oracle, you know more than just about anyone here, but you often say people are not looking at things rationally, and in this case you are biased. Anyone that lost 5G because a 1-5 shot couldn't win is going to be angry. The fact is that Albertrani has done everything right with Bernardini. He didn't rush the horse and now his patience has paid off. Flower Alley will have his day when he meets up with Bernardini, and while I hope Flower Alley wins, I don't expect him to even be close to Bernardini.

Hes a bald little dwarf and hes also incompetent. Hes been very lucky to be blessed with a horse like Bernadini but I will laugh loudly and taunt him and heckle him when he blows him up as I have total faith that he will.

Is he as good of a trainer as Pletcher?...probably not..I'll give you that...But, I really don't think he is far enough behind that you'll see a difference with this horse.....I really believe that.....Tom seems like a better-than-average horseman from what I can tell....

The horse he ra yesterday was an embarassment. He was DEAD SHORT and Prado rode him just fine. Sat off the duel in the best part of the racetrack and made his move in a typical spot. That horse absolutely layed over the field and to have him be so short and weaving about was a disgrace. Hes a bad trainer, plain and simple. Tell me all about his great successes other than Bernadini, Im still waiting to hear all about them. He will screw him up just like she screwed up yesterday.

Incompetent dwarf is what i will henceforth refer to him as.

That is uncalled for. His job with Balleto was excellent. She nearly won back to back stakes for him. So he has a first, and two seconds in the last three big races at the most difficult meet in the world. Not too bad.

Well, in my opinion Songster was compromised by chasing the fast fractions more than just getting dead tired from being not 100% cranked for the race.....just my opinion.....pace makes the race and it made that race....Songster was the onlt horse to finish well from the three that dueled out that grueling early agenda......I think he was fit enough to win....

Songster is not that good anyway. Henny Hughes will embarass him.

LOL, I love the saltyness....it is Scav style to a T.

This being said, while he was short, he also wasn't ready for a track like that which killed anything within 2 lengths of the lead, like quicksand yesterday

I think this was the case where they cared less about this race, which is somewhat decieving the public, and he is going to be tight as can be for the Kings Bishop, and at better odds if he would have won yesterday....

Mike, we will catch him next time

If you bet him to win next time, you are wasting your money. He has not shot in the Kings Bishop.