5/31: 'Official' BEL $262k P6 Thread

[philcski]

This is a brutal sequence. There isn't a single horse in this sequence that I'd really feel comfortable standing alone on.

A third carryover to Friday? Not impossible...

[docicu3]

You took the words right out of my mouth Phil....

[philcski]

Originally Posted by docicu3

You took the words right out of my mouth Phil....

P6 carryovers in NY are hard for me to resist when I've got the funds and impetus to play, but turf racing isn't my strength and this sequence has about 7 horses that could win each race!!

The Friday card is only slightly more manageable.

[hurricanefrank]

Originally Posted by philcski

This is a brutal sequence. There isn't a single horse in this sequence that I'd really feel comfortable standing alone on.

A third carryover to Friday? Not impossible...

I concur Phil. I've looked at this Pick 6 sequence for two nights now and can't come up with a single in any leg.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by hurricanefrank

I concur Phil. I've looked at this Pick 6 sequence for two nights now and can't come up with a single in any leg.

Tend to agree.. Utterly muddled set of races.

4th: Taking the Tiger looks like the horse to me, but a single in the opener?
5th: A sinkhole after the 6/8, and crying out for a surprise winner..
6th: A turf sprint as the single? Maybe.. Just 'Justy'?

I'm not close to a structure in the 7th, 8th or 9th..

Andy Serling and Seth Merrow on the Show tonight (5:00 and 5:30) to go through the card...

[pmacdaddy]

Race #5

Anyone have first turf and first start numbers for Kingmambo (Miss Poison)? Turf works and pretty gaudy trainer #'s.

First Turf numbers for Broad Brush (Impressionism)? Like the improvement on Poly.

Thanks!

[hurricanefrank]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Race #5

Anyone have first turf and first start numbers for Kingmambo (Miss Poison)? Turf works and pretty gaudy trainer #'s.

First Turf numbers for Broad Brush (Impressionism)? Like the improvement on Poly.

Thanks!

from DRF's "Closer Look" for Race 5 (Brian Mulligan):
Kingmambo has hit about with 10% of his debuters in a 235-horse sample and with about 13% of his first time turfers in a 199-horse sample...

Broad Brush has hit with 12% of his first-time turf runners in a 373-horse sample.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by pmacdaddy

Race #5

Anyone have first turf and first start numbers for Kingmambo (Miss Poison)? Turf works and pretty gaudy trainer #'s.

First Turf numbers for Broad Brush (Impressionism)? Like the improvement on Poly.

Thanks!

Impressionism is the one horse on the card that really intrigues me, without the morning lines I don't have an idea what she'll go off at but I'd guess 4-1ish. Don't have the numbers but I know Broad Brush's move up on the turf nicely (my friend's beautiful Broad Brush filly won the turf stake last Friday.)
The problem with taking a stand as a single is you're asking her to do two new things (turf, route) and one of my 'single' rules in the pick 6 is nothing 'new' (i.e., distance, surface, trainer, equipment, etc. jockey switch is ok if positive)

[sumitas]

for a couple a bucks i'm takin a shot. ya may get lucky.
just perusing the brisnet prime power ratings per race
race 4 - pick em
race 5 - 5, 6 have a 9 pt edge over the field
race 6 - Justy, 9, looms 20 pts over the field
race 7 - pick em
race 8 - 4 has a 12 pt edge
race 9 - 9,10 have a 11 pt edge over the field
* a 10 or more pt edge is considered significant.

[Linny]

BRIS has Broad Brush at 14% T and 11% 1st T. Shug at 12% 1st T (48 race sample)
What appeals about her is the strong late pace figs in the debut and the most recent race. I'm tossing the innder tube debacle, assuming something went awry that day as she didn't run again for 4 mos, w/no training til March 16. She's a factor here.

This is a brutal sequence. With a small bankroll, I may try to single Justy but Hushion's firster in there (My Michael) is a worry. Prado from the rail on a War Chant colt.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by Linny

This is a brutal sequence. With a small bankroll, I may try to single Justy but Hushion's firster in there (My Michael) is a worry. Prado from the rail on a War Chant colt.

This is a race that makes me want pull what's left of my hair out...A rail battle between a 290K War Chant yearling purchase and a 240K Maria Mon yearling purchase...Hushion 29%; McLaughlin 31%...throw in a 450k Gulch yearling purch from Rich Violette...Practically a million in horse flesh between the 3, and all of them firsters....

EDIT - Baletti has one start

[SentToStud]

Originally Posted by philcski

Impressionism is the one horse on the card that really intrigues me, without the morning lines I don't have an idea what she'll go off at but I'd guess 4-1ish. Don't have the numbers but I know Broad Brush's move up on the turf nicely (my friend's beautiful Broad Brush filly won the turf stake last Friday.)
The problem with taking a stand as a single is you're asking her to do two new things (turf, route) and one of my 'single' rules in the pick 6 is nothing 'new' (i.e., distance, surface, trainer, equipment, etc. jockey switch is ok if positive)

Impressionism 5/2 on Equibase ML.

[Spiggle24]

Very tough card.I believe the true single on the card is the 4 in the 8th.I live with the shieks or die with them & I do more livin'.I find Ms poison in the 5th very interesting.Look @ those good steady grass works then mediocre dirt works @ best now she races on the turf.Barclay Tagg kinda dirt to turf & KINGMAMBO too.Things that make you go HHHHMMMMM.

[KY_Sasquash]

Originally Posted by philcski

Impressionism is the one horse on the card that really intrigues me, without the morning lines I don't have an idea what she'll go off at but I'd guess 4-1ish. Don't have the numbers but I know Broad Brush's move up on the turf nicely (my friend's beautiful Broad Brush filly won the turf stake last Friday.)
The problem with taking a stand as a single is you're asking her to do two new things (turf, route) and one of my 'single' rules in the pick 6 is nothing 'new' (i.e., distance, surface, trainer, equipment, etc. jockey switch is ok if positive)

I thought the exact same thing this morning when I looked at Impressionism as a single. She should be fine trying turf for the first time b/c she's bred to do so and going 8.5F, also has the breeding and strong connections. I might do it anyway, not sure. Right now I'm leaving towards Makderah as a solid single.

[unassailable08]

are yall gonna spend on the pick 6 for tomorrow ne chance someone with a small bankroll can hit it.

[hurricanefrank]

Originally Posted by Kasept

Tend to agree.. Utterly muddled set of races.

4th: Taking the Tiger looks like the horse to me, but a single in the opener?
5th: A sinkhole after the 6/8, and crying out for a surprise winner..
6th: A turf sprint as the single? Maybe.. Just 'Justy'?

I'm not close to a structure in the 7th, 8th or 9th..

Andy Serling and Seth Merrow on the Show tonight (5:00 and 5:30) to go through the card...

4th: I think the Tiger will be tough (12-1 m/l way too generous); also think Parisella's classmaster L'Oiseau d'Argent could lead 'em throughout at a decent mutuel..
5th: sinkhole is right. Probably have to use Mott's Winsome Ways (2-1) in addition to the 6 & 8...dismissing either Tagg's Miss Poison (9-2) or firster Street Party (6-1) will be difficult to do..
6th: Justy (9-5) burned my $ last out but should go better tomorrow in back-to-back sprint scenario; got a hankering Violette's Baletti (10-1) will be good on the cut back and freshening;
7th: Flying Zee entry (2-1) looks best to me; Flightofthepelican (8-1) could very well relish surface switch for Schosberg;
8th: can make legitimate winning case for nearly all; tepid choice is KMc's Makderah (Ire) who should go better 2d start off bench under JR;
9th: Astoria Sweetheart (2-1) and Clearly a Thrill (3-1) look pretty obvious for inclusion purposes but too often the obvious don't win the $35KMCl events; Albertrani firster Katnik (4-1) may go well and wouldn't have to be much.

[Rudeboyelvis]

Originally Posted by hurricanefrank

5th: sinkhole is right. Probably have to use Mott's Winsome Ways (2-1) in addition to the 6 & 8...dismissing either Tagg's Miss Poison (9-2) or firster Street Party (6-1) will be difficult to do..

Although a very small sample, Mott's is a respectable 43% Synth/Turf. I leaning toward tossing the 6 and playing the 5,8 in this leg.

Of course, This is coming from the same guy that tossed Surf Town in the first leg of of the monster HollyPark P6

[hockey2315]

Winsome Ways is almost single-able IMO

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by philcski

This is a brutal sequence. There isn't a single horse in this sequence that I'd really feel comfortable standing alone on.

A third carryover to Friday? Not impossible...

I strongly disagree.

Unlike Monday's virtually unhittable sequence this one is a huge favorite to be hit.

[sumitas]

hmmm, race 4 is friggin contentious...Unigold i kinda like but i need to dig deeper.
now race 7 Whateverwillbwillb seems to do better on a softer turf. tomorrow will be firm. Square Dancing did ok in 06 but is off her game this year. doesn't seem like she cared for the inner at A. she is coming in 2nd off a layoff and has put up a big turf number last year...she like the firm going on the turf. Fiddlers Pleasure, i just wonder if she doesn't love the firm going.