5/31: 'Official' BEL $262k P6 Thread
 

Belmont's turn on Thursday with $260K+ Pick6 Carryover. 5 of six legs on Turf will certainly make it interesting...

I still need to do some additional digging on firsters...

Happy to hear any thoughts on this sequence as we attempt to navigate.

Good Luck!

that pretty much takes me out, turf is great but 5 races is just more then my skill level on that surface.

Currently thinking the 1/1a entry is a single candidate in 7th.

Whateverwillbwillb broke maiden off the layoff last spring at BEL. Could be tough here picking up JV for 2007 return. Turf Beyers from last year seem a notch above rest. Like the works over BEL Turf course. Could sit stalking trip with plenty of pace in here.

Entry mate Classic Expression is no slouch either going 2nd off Layoff for Serpe. Has 2 wins at distance and gets Prado. Showed Improved effort 2nd off last layoff up at Saratoga.

Elmont, NY weather for tomorrow.

Mostly Sunny High
88°F

Precip
10%

Wind: W 10 mph
Max. Humidity: 46%
UV Index: 9 Very High

Warm (80's) and Sunny today. More of the same tomorrow. Looks like Fast and Firm.

This is a brutal sequence. There isn't a single horse in this sequence that I'd really feel comfortable standing alone on.

A third carryover to Friday? Not impossible...

You took the words right out of my mouth Phil....

P6 carryovers in NY are hard for me to resist when I've got the funds and impetus to play, but turf racing isn't my strength and this sequence has about 7 horses that could win each race!!

The Friday card is only slightly more manageable.

Michele the Great is sitting on a big race. Going to be hard to leave her off...

I don't see a single opportunity on this card.

brutal sequence
 

I concur Phil. I've looked at this Pick 6 sequence for two nights now and can't come up with a single in any leg. :confused:

Tend to agree.. Utterly muddled set of races.

4th: Taking the Tiger looks like the horse to me, but a single in the opener?
5th: A sinkhole after the 6/8, and crying out for a surprise winner..
6th: A turf sprint as the single? Maybe.. Just 'Justy'?

I'm not close to a structure in the 7th, 8th or 9th..

Andy Serling and Seth Merrow on the Show tonight (5:00 and 5:30) to go through the card...

Race #5

Anyone have first turf and first start numbers for Kingmambo (Miss Poison)? Turf works and pretty gaudy trainer #'s.

First Turf numbers for Broad Brush (Impressionism)? Like the improvement on Poly.

Thanks!

preliminary p6 thoughts
 

4th: I think the Tiger will be tough (12-1 m/l way too generous); also think Parisella's classmaster L'Oiseau d'Argent could lead 'em throughout at a decent mutuel..
5th: sinkhole is right. Probably have to use Mott's Winsome Ways (2-1) in addition to the 6 & 8...dismissing either Tagg's Miss Poison (9-2) or firster Street Party (6-1) will be difficult to do..
6th: Justy (9-5) burned my $ last out but should go better tomorrow in back-to-back sprint scenario; got a hankering Violette's Baletti (10-1) will be good on the cut back and freshening;
7th: Flying Zee entry (2-1) looks best to me; Flightofthepelican (8-1) could very well relish surface switch for Schosberg;
8th: can make legitimate winning case for nearly all; tepid choice is KMc's Makderah (Ire) who should go better 2d start off bench under JR;
9th: Astoria Sweetheart (2-1) and Clearly a Thrill (3-1) look pretty obvious for inclusion purposes but too often the obvious don't win the $35KMCl events; Albertrani firster Katnik (4-1) may go well and wouldn't have to be much.

from DRF's "Closer Look" for Race 5 (Brian Mulligan):
Kingmambo has hit about with 10% of his debuters in a 235-horse sample and with about 13% of his first time turfers in a 199-horse sample...

Broad Brush has hit with 12% of his first-time turf runners in a 373-horse sample.

Impressionism is the one horse on the card that really intrigues me, without the morning lines I don't have an idea what she'll go off at but I'd guess 4-1ish. Don't have the numbers but I know Broad Brush's move up on the turf nicely (my friend's beautiful Broad Brush filly won the turf stake last Friday.)
The problem with taking a stand as a single is you're asking her to do two new things (turf, route) and one of my 'single' rules in the pick 6 is nothing 'new' (i.e., distance, surface, trainer, equipment, etc. jockey switch is ok if positive)

for a couple a bucks i'm takin a shot. ya may get lucky.
just perusing the brisnet prime power ratings per race
race 4 - pick em
race 5 - 5, 6 have a 9 pt edge over the field
race 6 - Justy, 9, looms 20 pts over the field
race 7 - pick em
race 8 - 4 has a 12 pt edge
race 9 - 9,10 have a 11 pt edge over the field
* a 10 or more pt edge is considered significant.

BRIS has Broad Brush at 14% T and 11% 1st T. Shug at 12% 1st T (48 race sample)
What appeals about her is the strong late pace figs in the debut and the most recent race. I'm tossing the innder tube debacle, assuming something went awry that day as she didn't run again for 4 mos, w/no training til March 16. She's a factor here.

This is a brutal sequence. With a small bankroll, I may try to single Justy but Hushion's firster in there (My Michael) is a worry. Prado from the rail on a War Chant colt.

Although a very small sample, Mott's is a respectable 43% Synth/Turf. I leaning toward tossing the 6 and playing the 5,8 in this leg.

Of course, This is coming from the same guy that tossed Surf Town in the first leg of of the monster HollyPark P6 :o :o

Winsome Ways is almost single-able IMO

Impressionism 5/2 on Equibase ML.