'paceQuality' figs: Street Sense (last 4); Bluegrass S. (w/Trakus)

[NoCarolinaTony]

[quote=Bobby Fischer]




(click and open full screen)

Here are my figures for Street Sense's last four races. Also included here is an in-depth look at the Bluegrass Stakes using Trakus Data with my figures.

Pace Quality or pQ attempts to measure the pace of the primary contenders in a race at the pace call. This can be important in identifying a true race shape. pQ2 measures the pace of the primary contenders from the pace call to the the finish. The Bluegrass was a visually obvious example of a race that "came home fast". Figures are listed in feet/second velocity.


Are you sure your figures are accurate. I was at KEE and Dominican was behind Street Sense at the pace call and up until he nosed hom out at the wire. There is no way SS is faster closing than Dominican.

Thanks,
NC Tony

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by NoCarolinaTony

Are you sure your figures are accurate. I was at KEE and Dominican was behind Street Sense at the pace call and up until he nosed hom out at the wire. There is no way SS is faster closing than Dominican.

Thanks,
NC Tony

NC

You are correct.
Here is better update with everthing rounded to 2 decimal places. Look under "PaceCall to Finish". Dominican closed the last 3 furlongs at 58.72 feet/second, while Street Sense was at 58.35.




also here is Dominican's card

DOMINICAN

[Bobby Fischer]

HARD SPUN


TIAGO

[GPK]

Originally Posted by Bobby Fischer

HARD SPUN


TIAGO

huh??

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by GPK

huh??

These are some of my velocity figures for the Derby entrants.
The numbers are in feet per second. 3 main parts = pace call (6f route or 4f sprint), pace call to finish (how fast they came home) , and final time.

Pace Quality or pQ attempts to measure the pace of the primary contenders in a race at the pace call. This can be important in identifying a true race shape. pQ2 measures the pace of the primary contenders from the pace call to the the finish.

[TheSpyder]

Bobby,

Nice stuff and there's nothing like fresh ways at looking at races.

From what you've collected, whose your top four?

Spyder

[Bobby Fischer]

Originally Posted by TheSpyder

Bobby,

Nice stuff and there's nothing like fresh ways at looking at races.

From what you've collected, whose your top four?

Spyder

Thanks Spyder

Based on the numbers Street Sense is the top choice, Nobiz is very solid, Curlin hasn't done anything wrong, and a number of horses are very close after that.

attached are power ratings for some of the contenders.
Race Quality = a power rating using paceQuality ratings, a variant factor, and a seperation factor.

Race Quality + Stamina = Race Quality applied to distance run as well as a pedigree stamina factor.

[clydewine]

I think it was the trip. If SS had the clear path at the rail he would have been gone, going away. Instead he was 3 or 4 out with horses on Both sides. I could picture him thinking "where am I? now what?" and he hesitated. He didn't have his security blanket, the rail. The trip. He is the superior horse. He likes CD. If he gets the clear path at the rail on the final turn in the Derby SS wins going away. If he has to be 3 or 4 out again he may be that unsure, different horse again.

[philcski]

Originally Posted by clydewine

I think it was the trip. If SS had the clear path at the rail he would have been gone, going away. Instead he was 3 or 4 out with horses on Both sides. I could picture him thinking "where am I? now what?" and he hesitated. He didn't have his security blanket, the rail. The trip. He is the superior horse. He likes CD. If he gets the clear path at the rail on the final turn in the Derby SS wins going away. If he has to be 3 or 4 out again he may be that unsure, different horse again.

Watching the replay several times last night, I thought the same thing. He continually lugs in if he doesn't sit right on it- an inside post is critical. Thankfully he also has a rider who is an absolute master of the CD rail.

He is the superior horse in this field. The trip will be the question of whether he wins or finishes 7th.