Is Curlin being overrated by the margins over nothing horses?

[tanner12oz]

no chance to hit the board first saturday in may

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

no chance to hit the board first saturday in may

Because?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by tanner12oz

no chance to hit the board first saturday in may

NO chance at the board?

[PPerfectfan]

I think Curlin maybe the Bellamy Road of this year. And I think Dominican maybe the "wiseguy" horse of the Derby that always takes lots of money and doesnt light the board. jmo I am sticking with Street Sense. And I like Nobiz/Zanjero/AGS for the bottom slots/super.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Title of the thread says it all "Is Curlin being overrated by the margins over nothing horses?"...

Yes, he is...much like Bellamy Road was for being a 17 1/2 length winner in the Wood. I pray Curlin is the favorite on Derby Day, he might cash in on a lesser prize, but he is not winning.

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Title of the thread says it all "Is Curlin being overrated by the margins over nothing horses?"...

Yes, he is...much like Bellamy Road was for being a 17 1/2 length winner in the Wood. I pray Curlin is the favorite on Derby Day, he might cash in on a lesser prize, but he is not winning.

okay, why is he not winning?

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

okay, why is he not winning?

didn't you see, he doesn't have a shot at hitting the board?!

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Danzig

didn't you see, he doesn't have a shot at hitting the board?!

yes ,lol, I saw that. ummm, I guess I look for a little more actual reasoning to accomodate the opinion.

One horse that both Curlin and SS ran against was the closer Delightful Kiss. In both races, Curlin and SS fired their "A" game or at least close to it and DK seems to be a pretty reliable decent horse.

In the TB derby, DK lost by 6 1/4 lengths, although he ducked out quite a bit at the start, in Ark Dby, he lost by 11 1/2 lengths.

Perhaps more interesting, in the stretch runs of each race, he lost 2 3/4 lengths or so to Curlin, and he lost about 1 1/4 lengths to SS. The Tb Dby was 1/16 of a mile shorter and probably wind aided in the home stretch but one would guess that based on this, Curlin is certainly not overrated.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

okay, why is he not winning?

Just a few things I dont like about him, Jim. He is running in to the Derby on two preps, which I like to lean against. He is coming off wins against mainly allowance horses, with the exception of Teufselberg and Officer Rocket. I don't believe in the angle that "he beat what he faced". Granted, it's not his fault if no credible threats were against him, but I firmly believe you have to be tested before you peak. This horse hasnt been tested. His shortest margin of victory is 5 1/4 lengths, I believe. Reminds me of Bernardini's summer program and then going eye to eye with Invasor. Everyone was pitching tents about Bernardini and his BC Classic cornonation (except you Jim, if I remember correctly) and as we saw, he got tested and he backed out.

I do like his pedigree though, so down the line I think he is a viable threat maybe in the summer and into a possible 4 yr old campaign, just don't like him in the Derby, especially as a possible favorite. Far too much value elsewhere, with horses who are more polished than Curlin.

[Danzig]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Just a few things I dont like about him, Jim. He is running in to the Derby on two preps, which I like to lean against. He is coming off wins against mainly allowance horses, with the exception of Teufselberg and Officer Rocket. I don't believe in the angle that "he beat what he faced". Granted, it's not his fault if no credible threats were against him, but I firmly believe you have to be tested before you peak. This horse hasnt been tested. His shortest margin of victory is 5 1/4 lengths, I believe. Reminds me of Bernardini's summer program and then going eye to eye with Invasor. Everyone was pitching tents about Bernardini and his BC Classic cornonation (except you Jim, if I remember correctly) and as we saw, he got tested and he backed out.

I do like his pedigree though, so down the line I think he is a viable threat maybe in the summer and into a possible 4 yr old campaign, just don't like him in the Derby, especially as a possible favorite. Far too much value elsewhere, with horses who are more polished than Curlin.

nice reply.

some others need to take note--a post like the above, whether one agrees with the opinion or not, is far more meaningful than the reply 'well, i just don't like him' as a reason to bet against!!

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

...This horse hasnt been tested. His shortest margin of victory is 5 1/4 lengths, I believe. Reminds me of Bernardini's summer program and then going eye to eye with Invasor... he got tested and he backed out....

But Bernardini is also contra evidence. He had not been tested at all prior to the Preakness and he won that. Do you recall the talk back then? There were some that were convinced a horse like that could not win others said they saw the previous race and were really impressed.

perhaps a better idea is to first ask what do you think "pressure" really means? i.e. is it a psychological factor of running near other horses or is it simply the idea of running fractions that are slightly faster than he's used to runnning?

I tend to lean on the latter idea, sometimes running that fourth fraction in 24.5 rather than 25 can make a huge difference at the end. It's not psychological but rather biological. But there are psychological issues involved no doubt.

How do you view the issue?

[ArlJim78]

Originally Posted by Suffolk Shippers

Just a few things I dont like about him, Jim. He is running in to the Derby on two preps, which I like to lean against. He is coming off wins against mainly allowance horses, with the exception of Teufselberg and Officer Rocket. I don't believe in the angle that "he beat what he faced". Granted, it's not his fault if no credible threats were against him, but I firmly believe you have to be tested before you peak. This horse hasnt been tested. His shortest margin of victory is 5 1/4 lengths, I believe. Reminds me of Bernardini's summer program and then going eye to eye with Invasor. Everyone was pitching tents about Bernardini and his BC Classic cornonation (except you Jim, if I remember correctly) and as we saw, he got tested and he backed out.

I do like his pedigree though, so down the line I think he is a viable threat maybe in the summer and into a possible 4 yr old campaign, just don't like him in the Derby, especially as a possible favorite. Far too much value elsewhere, with horses who are more polished than Curlin.

Okay, I can buy all that, legitmate concerns.

Competition, yeah it wasn't the best. But what I will say is that he handled Tueflesberg who has beaten Hard Spun and who also ran competively in the Blue Grass. And regardless of the competition, in each of his races there was never any doubt about who the best horse was, he has simply crushed each field. And not like Bernardini did in my view. Curlin has shown that he can come from off the pace, race wide, etc. I think he has been tested and has shown that he is superior. The other contenders, the ones that have supposedly been tested all have question marks of their own imo.

I also like the tempo that he maintains. He doesn't need the lead, he won't be on the lead, but he isn't a real closer. I don't know, maybe he's a presser?
What I'm saying is that his pace is dispersed more evenly throughout the race which is beneficial for long distances. A contrast would be Circular Quay who runs slow, then kicks in. I don't like that style for 10 panels. Others like AGS don't look like they can sustain a top effort the whole way.

he is fighting history in terms of the number of preps, but to me that does not rule him out, especially this year.

I'm not saying that he is my pick, or can't lose, but I am saying that I am not going to rule him out because of the number of preps or who his trainer is.
right now I would say that to me its between him, Street Sense and Dominican. Domincan is the most interesting because everyone is going to write him off as a poly specialist. but he was really impressive how he ran in the BG.

[Suffolk Shippers]

Originally Posted by ArlJim78

okay, why is he not winning?

Also, my apologies for not leaving a rationale for why he wasn't winning before...girlfriend was lurking around asking questions while I was posting.
Got me distracted.