Is Curlin being overrated by the margins over nothing horses?
 

Let's imagine for a second that Ketchikan didn't get injured and ran in the Arkansas Derby and duplicated his 99 Beyer. Now let's assume Curlin runs the exact same race, finishes the same distance ahead of Storm in May and the rest of the field but is only 2-3 lengths ahead of Ketchikan. Is there the same amount of buzz for him as there is now? Don't get me wrong, I think he's a heck of a horse and one of the few that has a shot to win on Derby day but I really think people should think of this scenario (using whatever 99 Beyer horse you'd like) to evaluate him instead of basing it on blowing away a bunch of sprinter/miler types at 9 furlongs.

yes, same amount of buzz for Curlin.

See my thread on PF's...if Dr Roman is correct, Curlin's race, while visually impressive, doesn't measure up to other prep winners...time will tell!

I don't know, people seem pretty impressed by margins in forum-land. This just kind of seems like Bernardini all over. Granted Curlin won't be running into Invasor anytime soon but 7/2 in the future pool seems insane to me.

I agree with everything you said.

I think there is a reason why Pletcher and Assmussen haven't won the derby. And, by god, i'm sticking to that reason this year. If they win then i'm wrong.

I don't care as much of him not running at age 2, or just have 3 lifetime starts. I'm more worried about the fact that I don't think any other horse in the rebel or Arkansas Derby is going to the derby. (at least, they shouldn't...Storm in May has no business going).
I don't knock him for who he ran against, but you would at least like to see him tested against one of the other top 10 candidates before betting him at a such a low price on Derby day.

I will puke in CD's grandstand if a cheater like Assmussen wins the Derby.

Nothing against Curlin, as I think he's a quality horse (and less likely to be "aided" than others that won everything yesterday for Assman) but there's a reason his horses never run big on big days...

Detention barns.

You are correct, sir. That's the only thing keeping me from making Curlin my Derby pick (well, that and a possible shitty post).

Not trying to be a smartass, but which high caliber trainers have NEVER cheated, ever?? My guess is some have never been caught. I know Pletcher, Asmussen, O'Neill have all cheated so that's a large chunk of the Derby field right there. Which ones NEVER cheat??

Well... the likely 2nd choice is trained by a guy who has won the Derby and the BC Classic and he's never been suspended.

no chance to hit the board first saturday in may

Because?

NO chance at the board?

I think Curlin maybe the Bellamy Road of this year. And I think Dominican maybe the "wiseguy" horse of the Derby that always takes lots of money and doesnt light the board. jmo I am sticking with Street Sense. And I like Nobiz/Zanjero/AGS for the bottom slots/super.

Title of the thread says it all "Is Curlin being overrated by the margins over nothing horses?"...

Yes, he is...much like Bellamy Road was for being a 17 1/2 length winner in the Wood. I pray Curlin is the favorite on Derby Day, he might cash in on a lesser prize, but he is not winning.

okay, why is he not winning?

didn't you see, he doesn't have a shot at hitting the board?!

yes ,lol, I saw that. ummm, I guess I look for a little more actual reasoning to accomodate the opinion.

Just a few things I dont like about him, Jim. He is running in to the Derby on two preps, which I like to lean against. He is coming off wins against mainly allowance horses, with the exception of Teufselberg and Officer Rocket. I don't believe in the angle that "he beat what he faced". Granted, it's not his fault if no credible threats were against him, but I firmly believe you have to be tested before you peak. This horse hasnt been tested. His shortest margin of victory is 5 1/4 lengths, I believe. Reminds me of Bernardini's summer program and then going eye to eye with Invasor. Everyone was pitching tents about Bernardini and his BC Classic cornonation (except you Jim, if I remember correctly) and as we saw, he got tested and he backed out.

I do like his pedigree though, so down the line I think he is a viable threat maybe in the summer and into a possible 4 yr old campaign, just don't like him in the Derby, especially as a possible favorite. Far too much value elsewhere, with horses who are more polished than Curlin.