Question, Seriously

hoovesupsideyourhead · #1 03-10-2007, 06:53 PM

my ticket was.,.7 with 3/7/8/11 with 1/7 with 1..dumb luck i guess but ill take it

hockey2315 · #2 03-10-2007, 07:23 PM

I definitely don't think CQ was a strong single. . . Still wouldn't if I could do it over again. . . But I still can't believe I didn't include the O'Neill filly. . . My east-coast bias clouds my judgment way too much sometimes. . .

POINTGIVEN1985 · #3 03-10-2007, 07:42 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by hoovesupsideyourhead

my ticket was.,.7 with 3/7/8/11 with 1/7 with 1..dumb luck i guess but ill take it

my ticket was ...7/3,5,9,11/1,4/2,5... i was alive to the cq race and did not use him at all, dumb play i guess, but i really did not like him

blackthroatedwind · #4 03-10-2007, 07:51 PM

I'm not at all suprised Circular Quay won but I have no idea how he could have been considered a single. You make MUCH more money over time playing against horses like him than on them. I used him defensively ( and blew up with Get Ready Bertie ) but hardly considered him a single. Truth be told he was a bit of a sucker horse, bet heavily because of his connections, and not his pps.

hoovesupsideyourhead · #5 03-10-2007, 08:04 PM

agreed but..take into account the lack of field and the fact some of these gave there all last out..he didnt have to do much but stay out of trouble and time it right..imo

blackthroatedwind · #6 03-10-2007, 08:08 PM

He was pretty impressive. Not sure what to make of him at this point.

zippyneedsawin · #7 03-10-2007, 08:09 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was pretty impressive. Not sure what to make of him at this point.

I think that's about has much love that BTW is ever going to show this horse!

brianwspencer · #8 03-10-2007, 08:11 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

He was pretty impressive. Not sure what to make of him at this point.

He's one that I always expect to lose, but seems to come running no matter what.

With that said, obviously his style poses a problem heading towards the Derby, as traffic can kill his chances in an instant.

I also don't see a TON of speedball horses heading for the Derby yet. Were this shaping up like Derbies past, I would be inclined to love him based on a total pace meltdown, but at least at this point on the trail I'm not seeing a Sinister Minister/Keyed Entry type of pace meltdown. It may change, but in that kind of race his style could have been very effective given the speed at which he picks horses off, but this year (thus far) doesn't seem to be setting the table for a horse coming from 17th place a half mile out.

Though when he is impressive, he is darn impressive, so who knows.

blackthroatedwind · #9 03-10-2007, 08:18 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

Though when he is impressive, he is darn impressive, so who knows.

Horses that make big sweeping runs almost always look better than they are. And, as you said, with his style he opens himself up to trouble. Deep closers are rarely Derby winners.

I still don't see him winning at 1 1/4, but I have never been a fan of this horse, and while he was better than I truly expected today I am far from sold.

zippyneedsawin · #10 03-10-2007, 08:19 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by brianwspencer

He's one that I always expect to lose, but seems to come running no matter what.

With that said, obviously his style poses a problem heading towards the Derby, as traffic can kill his chances in an instant.

I also don't see a TON of speedball horses heading for the Derby yet. Were this shaping up like Derbies past, I would be inclined to love him based on a total pace meltdown, but at least at this point on the trail I'm not seeing a Sinister Minister/Keyed Entry type of pace meltdown. It may change, but in that kind of race his style could have been very effective given the speed at which he picks horses off, but this year (thus far) doesn't seem to be setting the table for a horse coming from 17th place a half mile out.

Though when he is impressive, he is darn impressive, so who knows.

I admit I've always liked this guy, but certainly understand the skeptism of others about his derby chances... especially considering his running style. But so far, I don't see any other horses seperating themselves from this 3yo class.. so my attitude is he's as good as any i've seen.

SCUDSBROTHER · #11 03-10-2007, 09:10 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I'm not at all suprised Circular Quay won but I have no idea how he could have been considered a single. You make MUCH more money over time playing against horses like him than on them. I used him defensively ( and blew up with Get Ready Bertie ) but hardly considered him a single. Truth be told he was a bit of a sucker horse, bet heavily because of his connections, and not his pps.

The screws seem to be tightened up very snug on these Pletcher 3 year olds right now.I just wonder if they are gunna be over the top come the big day.

blackthroatedwind · #12 03-10-2007, 11:17 PM

Quote:

Originally Posted by SCUDSBROTHER

The screws seem to be tightened up very snug on these Pletcher 3 year olds right now.I just wonder if they are gunna be over the top come the big day.

If they are genuinely good horses, and I am in no way implying they are not, they should improve. Good horses hold their form. Surely after today's performance by Einstein the bounce adherants learned something.

Good horses don't bounce ( and I don't think mediocre ones do either ).

SCUDSBROTHER · #13 03-11-2007, 01:09 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If they are genuinely good horses, and I am in no way implying they are not, they should improve. Good horses hold their form. Surely after today's performance by Einstein the bounce adherants learned something.

Good horses don't bounce ( and I don't think mediocre ones do either ).

No,I am not necessarily talking about a big bounce.What I am saying is that the winner of this last B.C. Juvenile would appear to have been ready to give his peak 2 year old performance on B.C. Day. I think John Sheriffs also had Giacomo read for his peak 3 year old performance on Derby Day.Barbaro the same.They all were ready to peak on that day.I just think that sometimes that may be the reason why Pletcher hasn't been dominant on Derby day,and on this last Breeders Cup Day(the horses don't peak on those days.....they peak in other races..on other days.)Dreaming of Anna ran probably (for her) just an o.k. race on B.C. Day.She (most likely) could have been upset if one of those fillies had peaked like Street did in the Juvenile.

jpops757 · #14 03-11-2007, 10:01 AM

as far as the pk4 bet is concerned . The wrecker move wa Kings Drama pulling up. This was the other obvious single in my evaluation of the pps. I had 4 of the 3yrold fillies with Oneils being a must include as my 2nd choice.I used 6 pf the 3yr olds and only included CQ because of my single of KD. NO matter how I played it it want to the floor and on to the next race. Einstien would have been no better than 3rd or 4th choice for me. So is a 3 mout of 4 getting close? In my cas I say no because of where I ranked Einstien and just barely putting CQ on the ticket as the 4th 5th or6th option.

Pointg5 · #15 03-11-2007, 10:37 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

If they are genuinely good horses, and I am in no way implying they are not, they should improve. Good horses hold their form. Surely after today's performance by Einstein the bounce adherants learned something.

Good horses don't bounce ( and I don't think mediocre ones do either ).

Turf horses don't bounce, they run very close groupings

Big efforts have to take something out of a horse, they aren't machines

blackthroatedwind · #16 03-11-2007, 11:02 AM

Quote:

Originally Posted by Pointg5

Turf horses don't bounce, they run very close groupings

Big efforts have to take something out of a horse, they aren't machines

So let me get this straight....horses don't bounce because of physical exertion specifically....they bounce only from physical exertion over dirt.

Good to know.

One quick question, as hunt season is just around the corner, what about the jumps....do they throw a monkey wrench into the equation?