Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Spirited Boss is scratched out of the 7th but I'm going to stay in that race. I'll probably put her in the winner's circle but I really don't like the ML favorite #1 Make Haste. Her win last out was against significantly weaker horses. Two back, she just wasn't good enough against two horses that are in this race and I view Cloe as the horse to beat and she may run away with it, though my hope is to beat her at a big price. I'm going to end up on #2 Italian Soiree, 12/1. Looking through her replays, I don't think she's a horse that likes to rate and she never looked comfortable to me in her turf routes. To me, she'll benefit from being able to just run out of the gate at this shorter distance and let loose. She's got a win at 5 1/2 furlongs, albeit on dirt, but she looked comfortable that day, made a 3wide move on the turn, and just kept running. She's run against some really good turf horses at route distances and hasn't embarrassed herself. Throw out her last turf race as she got bumped very hard at the top of the stretch and jogged home. She was never in contention last out in the Jersey Girl but those were some pretty good dirt horses she was up against and that was pretty much an impossible task. The fact she put in a modest effort on what I don't think is her preferred surface further bolsters my belief that she's a sprinter and not a router. Terranova wins at 12% on turf but the average payout is over $12.00. A mild improvement with the switch back to turf puts her in contention here.

Italian Soirée paid $31.20 to win and $17.20 to place. That brings the totals to…

$48.00 wagered
$89.10 returned

For Saturday, my picks are:

Race 5. #7 Magical Ways, 8/1. This race just looks like a good betting race as most of the field is pretty evenly matched. Magical Ways’ turf form is muddied up as he’s switched back and forth between turf and dirt in his career. I think the pace will heat up in this one so I’m looking for Junior to get a ground saving trip in the back and then make one big run in the stretch.

Race 11. #4 Excellent Truth, 5/2. I want to try to beat She Feels Pretty here and while I prefer better odds than 5/2, I’ve just been really impressed with Excellent Truth. I thought she had a really bad trip in the Jenny Wiley in her first start here in the U.S. and she still nearly won. She had some milder trouble in the Just a Game and was still running strong at the end. I like both Chad horses but she’s got more tactical speed than stablemate Dynamic Pricing and I just trust Excellent Truth a bit more to work out the right trip for herself.