Two at Toga (2025)

[moses]

7/5

Race 3. #4 Blinging it Back 6/5 (Using #1 Imagine John heavily underneath.)
Race 8. #8 Final Verdict 7/2

[theguarantee]

Wagered: $16.00
Returned: $24.80

Extremely disappointed in New Century, came up totally empty and I thought he was going to win as they started on the turn. Bendoog was bad.

7/5/25:

Best Bet: Race 8 #5 Step Forward 10/1 - The races last summer at Woodbine and Saratoga fit with the contenders here to me, in particular at this trip at the Spa had a nightmare trip and still came up pretty fast. Dirt, Kentucky Downs, Down the Hill were some crazy spots that are all excusable. Last off the layoff ran OK with a bit of a trip....so dirtied up...bit of a guess but it feels like today is the day to get this one.

Best Value: Race 12 #8 Uncle Barrie 20/1 - I know this horse is just a slow plodder and could totally be a horrible pick....if Capt Jax Parrow runs back to the last (or god forbid improves since it's trending up) obviously they're all running for second...but he's hardly trustworthy and I don't really see why Kings and Queens is getting so much love here. I don't really love any of the other logical alternatives or the firster and Uncle Barrie has just been slowly but steadily improving. Got lasix three back and is moving in the right direction...maybe the cutback is just what the doctor ordered. His races at the start of his career against Special Weights were at least similar to the efforts in those fields as the shorter prices...it's a pretty big stab on some pretty bad connections, but in this field I'll take a swing.

Not an official pick but I am trying to beat Nitrogen today for better or worse. Respect her a ton but I think this field towers over what she's been facing...problem is there are so many directions to go...I don't know what she's been doing really but May Day Ready's BC Juvy Filly effort was something, I'll probably lean on her and Oppulent Restraint who looks too slow but I think is one Chad is high on especially as the year goes along and has hinted he thinks she needs the distance.

Also, one more chance to unofficially look stupid but I don't see why everyone seems to prefer Intellect to Donegal Momentum. I get the racing dynamics part of it but I thought DM finished up great and was not ever threatened/might not let Intellect by if it came to it...again, I get it but I think DM is trending upward and really nice, really love the stride and think there is yet more upside. Mountain Bear is who I consider the main danger (and I'll await the return of Nantasket Beach who I was really intrigued with).

Good luck everyone.

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Wagered: $16.00
Returned: $24.80

Extremely disappointed in New Century, came up totally empty and I thought he was going to win as they started on the turn. Bendoog was bad.

7/5/25:

Best Bet: Race 8 #5 Step Forward 10/1 - The races last summer at Woodbine and Saratoga fit with the contenders here to me, in particular at this trip at the Spa had a nightmare trip and still came up pretty fast. Dirt, Kentucky Downs, Down the Hill were some crazy spots that are all excusable. Last off the layoff ran OK with a bit of a trip....so dirtied up...bit of a guess but it feels like today is the day to get this one.

Best Value: Race 12 #8 Uncle Barrie 20/1 - I know this horse is just a slow plodder and could totally be a horrible pick....if Capt Jax Parrow runs back to the last (or god forbid improves since it's trending up) obviously they're all running for second...but he's hardly trustworthy and I don't really see why Kings and Queens is getting so much love here. I don't really love any of the other logical alternatives or the firster and Uncle Barrie has just been slowly but steadily improving. Got lasix three back and is moving in the right direction...maybe the cutback is just what the doctor ordered. His races at the start of his career against Special Weights were at least similar to the efforts in those fields as the shorter prices...it's a pretty big stab on some pretty bad connections, but in this field I'll take a swing.

Not an official pick but I am trying to beat Nitrogen today for better or worse. Respect her a ton but I think this field towers over what she's been facing...problem is there are so many directions to go...I don't know what she's been doing really but May Day Ready's BC Juvy Filly effort was something, I'll probably lean on her and Oppulent Restraint who looks too slow but I think is one Chad is high on especially as the year goes along and has hinted he thinks she needs the distance.

Also, one more chance to unofficially look stupid but I don't see why everyone seems to prefer Intellect to Donegal Momentum. I get the racing dynamics part of it but I thought DM finished up great and was not ever threatened/might not let Intellect by if it came to it...again, I get it but I think DM is trending upward and really nice, really love the stride and think there is yet more upside. Mountain Bear is who I consider the main danger (and I'll await the return of Nantasket Beach who I was really intrigued with).

Good luck everyone.

This is a redboard but I just didn’t like the pace setup for DM that race. I had tossed DM and bet Intellect and Think Big in all my horizontals with a few bets with Mountain Bear.

I think Opulent Restraint will be a player going forward. That was a nice race out of her yesterday.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

7/5

Race 3. #4 Blinging it Back 6/5 (Using #1 Imagine John heavily underneath.)
Race 8. #8 Final Verdict 7/2

$24.00 wagered
$2.40 returned

Terrible so far.

Race 3. #6 In Time 4/1
Race 6. #3 Downtown Channel 5/1

[theguarantee]

7/6/25

Best Bet: Race 8: #5 Takeschargesmiling 6/1
Best Value: Race 7: #3 Danghereshecomesshang 12/1

[theguarantee]

^Great work today Mo, was hoping we would get a quad..that Forgiving Spirit just killed my nice start late multis

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

^Great work today Mo, was hoping we would get a quad..that Forgiving Spirit just killed my nice start late multis

Thanks. Great call on that Ward horse. I had a good day but couldn’t put it all together in the bigger multis.

[Kasept]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

Best Value: Race 7: #3 Danghereshecomesshang 12/1

Well done.. Really nice tab!

[theguarantee]

^Thanks guys.

Step Forward on Saturday broke my heart a bit not getting up for the win, that was the day to get him on his dirtied up form, paid $11.00 to place.
Uncle Barrie - shameful pick

Yesterday, Takeschargesmiling took some money and hardly ran a step after getting fractious in the gate.
Dangherecomesshang benefited from a heads up, aggressive ride by Dylan and paid $28.40/14.80

Wagered: $32.00
Returned: $79.00

[moses]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

^Thanks guys.

Step Forward on Saturday broke my heart a bit not getting up for the win, that was the day to get him on his dirtied up form, paid $11.00 to place.
Uncle Barrie - shameful pick

Yesterday, Takeschargesmiling took some money and hardly ran a step after getting fractious in the gate.
Dangherecomesshang benefited from a heads up, aggressive ride by Dylan and paid $28.40/14.80

Wagered: $32.00
Returned: $79.00

These numbers are amazing. Keep it up!

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by theguarantee

^Thanks guys.

Step Forward on Saturday broke my heart a bit not getting up for the win, that was the day to get him on his dirtied up form, paid $11.00 to place.
Uncle Barrie - shameful pick

Yesterday, Takeschargesmiling took some money and hardly ran a step after getting fractious in the gate.
Dangherecomesshang benefited from a heads up, aggressive ride by Dylan and paid $28.40/14.80

Wagered: $32.00
Returned: $79.00

Great start buddy

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

$24.00 wagered
$2.40 returned

Terrible so far.

Race 3. #6 In Time 4/1
Race 6. #3 Downtown Channel 5/1

$32.00 wagered.
$36.80 returned.

That’s why you’ve got to love this sport. Just takes one race to turn things around.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

$32.00 wagered.
$36.80 returned.

That’s why you’ve got to love this sport. Just takes one race to turn things around.

Thursday.

Race 5. #5 Edict, 8/1. I think #4 Heredia is the horse to beat and am against #3 Deep Satin who will be a short price but note that her top figure two races back came on softer ground. She could win, but I don’t want her at a short price. The #2 Les Reys intrigues me but this is a tough spot coming off the layoff. For me, I like #5 Edict who was very impressive two back, beating Heredia (both off a layoff) and ultimately running second to a good horse in Dynamic Pricing. I’ll forgive Edict for last out, which was still a decent performance but won’t be good enough to win today. In the New York, she was against better horses and probably didn’t like the added ground. She’s cutting back and she’s got Johnny V back on board and she’s going to be a big price.

Race 8. #7 Charlottesapproval, 6/1. I’m not totally sold on the ML favorite Movin’ On Up, even if it does bring back memories of one of my favorite TV shows growing up — The Jeffersons. Charlottesapproval seems better suited for a little more distance than her last out and she’s already run back to her 3YO figures so the hope is she’s ready to take a step forward. It’ll need to be a good step forward but it’s not impossible and I figure she’ll be a nice price. I do also like the #1 Ozara but I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s even lower than her 7/2 ML odds so I’ll go with the bigger price.

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

Thursday.

Race 5. #5 Edict, 8/1. I think #4 Heredia is the horse to beat and am against #3 Deep Satin who will be a short price but note that her top figure two races back came on softer ground. She could win, but I don’t want her at a short price. The #2 Les Reys intrigues me but this is a tough spot coming off the layoff. For me, I like #5 Edict who was very impressive two back, beating Heredia (both off a layoff) and ultimately running second to a good horse in Dynamic Pricing. I’ll forgive Edict for last out, which was still a decent performance but won’t be good enough to win today. In the New York, she was against better horses and probably didn’t like the added ground. She’s cutting back and she’s got Johnny V back on board and she’s going to be a big price.

Race 8. #7 Charlottesapproval, 6/1. I’m not totally sold on the ML favorite Movin’ On Up, even if it does bring back memories of one of my favorite TV shows growing up — The Jeffersons. Charlottesapproval seems better suited for a little more distance than her last out and she’s already run back to her 3YO figures so the hope is she’s ready to take a step forward. It’ll need to be a good step forward but it’s not impossible and I figure she’ll be a nice price. I do also like the #1 Ozara but I wouldn’t be surprised if she’s even lower than her 7/2 ML odds so I’ll go with the bigger price.

Going to switch this up a little.

I’ll stick with the #5 Edict in Race 5. But instead of Charlottesapproval, I’m going to land on #4 Alexis Zorba in Race 2. Alexis Zorba has already run 7 or 8 races in his career that are probably fast enough to win this race. Two back when he faced off against the ML favorite Devil in Disguise, the pace totally fell apart. Now, he’s in the Trombetta barn and reporting as a first time gelding. Maybe the ultimate equipment change gets this horse back on track. All he has to do is run back to his form from last summer. Maybe that’s too much to ask, but the favorite is going to be 4/5 and has a lot of questions of his own. Trombetta wins 15% with first starts with him. He’s a perfect 2-for-2 over the last 5 years when dropping a horse into claiming from the allowance ranks in their first start with him.

[theguarantee]

7/10

Best Bet: Race 7 - #5 Lost Horizon 4/1 - Really liked the debut effort with more kind of subtle early trouble than some others and then had to go super wide slowly getting into stride late which to me indicates Will love the stretch out today and being out of Wow Cat that makes sense. Tough to say but might get a decent enough price today given all that she has going in her favor with connections, breeding, etc.

Best Value: Race 8 - #8 Spinning Colors 10/1 - Always liked this horse and I get that she really get away with it last out. That said I think she’s more than capable of repeating even if facing a little more pressure in here today…I get the sense that she’s going to be dismissed off that effort and I think personally she’s a little better than most…Hening has been awfully quiet but I think she has this one sharp right now and if JV can ration out her speed that leaves most shaking their head again..and I’m not really that afraid of anyone in this field

[moses]

$40.00 wagered.
$40.70 returned.

Alexis Zorba ran 2nd and paid $3.90. Edict wasn’t good enough.

Today.

Race 7. #5 Spirited Boss, 6/1. I like his earlier sprint races. Other than last out on the dirt, he seems to break well and I think Johnny V will put him in good position. He beat Classic Q a few back so he’s got some turf talent, the question is if he’ll prefer the shorter distance. I suspect he’ll get ignored on the tote board and drift above 6/1.

Race 5. #3 Ragtime Sizzle, 8/1. Fresh off the claim, this one gets wheeled back in 8 days. The race looks like there’s little pace but I expect the #4 Low Key and the #6 Another Cleeshay to apply some pressure up front. If Kantarmaci can win that race yesterday, this one fits a lot better on figures even if Ragtime sizzle is jumping up from MCL20K to CLM100K. This field isn’t very good and the upset is definitely possible here.

[theguarantee]

^good to see you post dahoss, hope all is well.

Lost Horizon looked like she might be ready to pounce and win easily to my eyes but the winner had other ideas and she was well beaten for second paying $4.40 to place. Similarly Spinning Colors looked to be possibly ready to kick away but Ozara pranced by her in a common gallop, that was impressive, SC paid $9.70 to place.

Wagered: $40.00
Returned: $93.10

Had some opinions on the turf races today outside of the stake where I think Make Haste looked a likely winner I probably wasn’t trying to beat…might talk myself into Gata Brazil at this point though. Have to reassess this card

[moses]

Originally Posted by moses

$40.00 wagered.
$40.70 returned.

Alexis Zorba ran 2nd and paid $3.90. Edict wasn’t good enough.

Today.

Race 7. #5 Spirited Boss, 6/1. I like his earlier sprint races. Other than last out on the dirt, he seems to break well and I think Johnny V will put him in good position. He beat Classic Q a few back so he’s got some turf talent, the question is if he’ll prefer the shorter distance. I suspect he’ll get ignored on the tote board and drift above 6/1.

Race 5. #3 Ragtime Sizzle, 8/1. Fresh off the claim, this one gets wheeled back in 8 days. The race looks like there’s little pace but I expect the #4 Low Key and the #6 Another Cleeshay to apply some pressure up front. If Kantarmaci can win that race yesterday, this one fits a lot better on figures even if Ragtime sizzle is jumping up from MCL20K to CLM100K. This field isn’t very good and the upset is definitely possible here.

Spirited Boss is scratched out of the 7th but I'm going to stay in that race. I'll probably put her in the winner's circle but I really don't like the ML favorite #1 Make Haste. Her win last out was against significantly weaker horses. Two back, she just wasn't good enough against two horses that are in this race and I view Cloe as the horse to beat and she may run away with it, though my hope is to beat her at a big price. I'm going to end up on #2 Italian Soiree, 12/1. Looking through her replays, I don't think she's a horse that likes to rate and she never looked comfortable to me in her turf routes. To me, she'll benefit from being able to just run out of the gate at this shorter distance and let loose. She's got a win at 5 1/2 furlongs, albeit on dirt, but she looked comfortable that day, made a 3wide move on the turn, and just kept running. She's run against some really good turf horses at route distances and hasn't embarrassed herself. Throw out her last turf race as she got bumped very hard at the top of the stretch and jogged home. She was never in contention last out in the Jersey Girl but those were some pretty good dirt horses she was up against and that was pretty much an impossible task. The fact she put in a modest effort on what I don't think is her preferred surface further bolsters my belief that she's a sprinter and not a router. Terranova wins at 12% on turf but the average payout is over $12.00. A mild improvement with the switch back to turf puts her in contention here.

[theguarantee]

^I do think Soirée is a little interesting in there but I couldn’t quite get there

Best Bet: Race 7 - #7 Gata Brazil 6/1 - Not totally convinced that Make Haste won’t win but I did not find much on this card and I’m going to see if Brittany Russell doesn’t have this one primed for a big effort today. Shipped to NY two back and seemed poised/came up empty almost like something went wrong. Back to Laurel with a big effort and now she points back here, the distance and course may be more suited…

Best Value: Race 9 - #8 Ocala Dream 20/1 - I thought the last race going long was actually quite an effort. Obviously there’s a good chance he just really liked the slop but if he’s ok with the faster ground today I actually like this trip today for him and I definitely don’t trust any of the logicals in here.

[moses]

The key for me race 7 is that I just don’t like the likely favorite. I’m using 2-3-7 in horizontals there. I don’t trust turf horses coming from Gulfstream, especially ones that wire the field. Cloe is a little more trustworthy imo but even she was very disappointing two back.

I’m probably wrong but Soirée will be a big enough price for me.

I like your pick of Ocala Dream. Half-sib Seven Lillies won 8 times on dirt, including some pretty big figures (high 80s, low 90s) as a 6 and 7 year old. Plenty of dirt in the pedigree there.