Weekend Stakes Beyers: Medina Spirit 102; Malathaat 95

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

All that "good stock" had already blown their collective wads well before the race...including Jackie's Warrior.

If Chad Brown said the race was tough, my guess is he was more worried about the amount of speed lining up and not any particular horse or horses.

Who was supposed to "step up" exactly?

Defunded? He was supposed to get a perfect setup. In that sense, he wouldn't have needed to improve to capitalize; but the point is moot because he was given a moronic ride. Beyond that, he's a horse with a modest pedigree that had to have an 8-month layoff after his debut, was gelded in the interim (something you rarely see in Baffert's barn), and then was stupidly tossed into the Santa Anita Derby off a maiden sprint win presumably because Life is Good got hurt. Baffert's ego was bruised (see his exploits last year, ruining Uncle Chuck and Cezanne). Maybe he'll have enough left to win the Los Alamitos Derby before running off the board in the Haskell.

Prevalence? Why was he in that race? He just got browbeat in the Wood Memorial when foolishly rushed into the Derby picture after a facile (and slow) maiden sprint win. The sad part is, he's by Medaglia d'Oro, who doesn't typically produce speedy one-turn horses, so instead of allowing him to progress steadily to two-turn races, his trainer has fried him and pretty much slammed the door shut on his 3yo year. He can't handle a hot pace, he can't sit back and make one run, and he probably has no bottom (or heart) to go a route any time soon. Time to back off and start from scratch. Maybe he can be next year's Maxfield. I doubt it. Future looks bright as a Dubai Carnival race filler.

Starrininmydreams and Sittin On Go? Typical fodder from the Stewart and Romans barns...the #1 source for also-rans for all Stakes Coordinators across the country. I wouldn't be surprised if one of them tries to run back in the Preakness...

Dreamer's Disease? Well, with an apt name like that, I guess you can't blame the connections (I'm still going to). Why the hell would you bring a horse with that kind of early speed back in a race like this off that disastrous NY-bred baby race right on the heels of his gut-busting effort in the BC? He and Excellent Timing could have had a nice rivalry beginning with the Gold Fever and segueing into the NY-bred Mike Lee. Now they'll have to use the latter to get back on the right track.

Whiskey Double? He was outsprinted by O Besos earlier in the year. Next.

Dream Shake? Not sure how much more punishment this horse can take. Somehow defeating Bezos and Fenway in a maiden sprint made this horse a Derby prospect. Running mediocre thirds in weak CA fields somehow still punched his ticket to Louisville instead of a more logical step, like the 7-furlong sure-to-be-5-horse field Laz Barrera Stakes at Santa Anita or I don't know...a first condition allowance race? The latter doesn't fill in CA unless it's for 3yos and up, so one way or the other, he was probably going to need to ship out of state. His runner-up effort here will probably only embolden his connections further, and we'll probably see him next in the Woody Stephens. I guess on the bright side. We didn't have to watch him run in the Kentucky Derby (unless you were in Vegas planning to bet a reverse the last-place finish exacta box with Soup and Sandwich)...

Noble Reflection? This has to be the worst training job of the bunch. The horse has an 8-month layoff following a 3rd place finish in a pretty productive maiden 2yo race, comes back with a sharp score in the comeback sprinting in March, and guess what? You guessed it...Derby Prospect! Forget a first condition allowance sprint. Forget a first condition allowance route. Why not do both at the same time? We'll route him, but we'll pretend like we're in a sprint race. This is the only deranged logic that can explain what the F they were doing with him in the Lexington setting a:45 opening half. And for the life of me, I cannot begin to imagine how this race was still on their radar after the absolute (and predictable) meltdown the horse suffered. The most unforgivable part of this whole affair is that they nearly paved the way for King Fury to get into the Kentucky Derby...

We could accurately reverse engineer racing decisions from trainers that make bad decisions every day. You had 10 reasonably good animals that didn't run an 80 BSF that is a tough pill to swallow in the Pat Day Stakes on the first Saturday in May at CD. This wasn't a Feb 12th field in an NW1 Aqueduct which will have at least 3 horses will run an 80 fig.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by freddymo

We could accurately reverse engineer racing decisions from trainers that make bad decisions every day. You had 10 reasonably good animals that didn't run an 80 BSF that is a tough pill to swallow in the Pat Day Stakes on the first Saturday in May at CD. This wasn't a Feb 12th field in an NW1 Aqueduct which will have at least 3 horses will run an 80 fig.

Just to be clear, you saw the fractions of the race, right?

And you are also aware that every single 2021 route start (and nearly every sprint start, too, actually) from every single horse in the race save for Prevalence's tailored team workout second time out resulted in a running line in which ground (i.e., multiple lengths) was lost in the stretch? (This was all on paper beforehand, by the way...)

I thought I covered most of the field, but which specific horse did you think was: (1) not in declining form or (2) had shown the ability to handle further than 7f or (3) had shown the ability to survive a fast pace or (4) shown the ability to close in a route?

Was I supposed to analyze the scratched horse?

[blackthroatedwind]

I don’t know why it’s so hard to understand that Beyer figs are final time Figs, Freddy, and that horses that set excruciating paces will always run final time figures lower than the actual performance they gave. There was zero chance Jackie’s Warrior was going to get a big final time fig given that pace. He and the runner up ran huge. The Beyer fig was never going to tell that story. I honestly cannot understand why you keep harping on this.

It’s the opposite of raising figs because super slow fractions make fast final times impossible, something you see far more frequently in turf races.

[fantini33]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

I don’t know why it’s so hard to understand that Beyer figs are final time Figs, Freddy, and that horses that set excruciating paces will always run final time figures lower than the actual performance they gave. There was zero chance Jackie’s Warrior was going to get a big final time fig given that pace. He and the runner up ran huge. The Beyer fig was never going to tell that story. I honestly cannot understand why you keep harping on this.

It’s the opposite of raising figs because super slow fractions make fast final times impossible, something you see far more frequently in turf races.

Timeform Figures illustrate this perfectly. The numbers ARE derived from pace. The winner doesn’t always end up with the highest fig. It opened my eyes to an entirely better way of judging performances.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by fantini33

Timeform Figures illustrate this perfectly. The numbers ARE derived from pace. The winner doesn’t always end up with the highest fig. It opened my eyes to an entirely better way of judging performances.

Better is a tricky word. Different and worth comparing to try to determine why they sometimes disagree

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Better is a tricky word. Different and worth comparing to try to determine why they sometimes disagree

[Dahoss]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Hey Dunbar...I’ve been meaning to ask. How’d your future wagering go this year?