Angle: MSW to Grade 2 (dirt)

[Easy Goer Otis]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Otis, for the overall ROI of MSW-to-G2 from 2015 to be -9%, the 2015 through 2017 ROI must have been horrendous. Can you compare the Jan 1, 2015 through Dec 31, 2017 ROI figs for MSW-to-G2 and MSW-to-G3? I'm guessing they're pretty similar.

You are correct, sir! Extremely similar. For 2015-2017:

Win %: 12.05% vs 12.43%
ROI: -37% vs -36%
AVG odds of winners were both a shade over 4-1 for that period.

How about MSW to Non-Graded Stakes since 2015?

Win %: 546 out of 4,641 11.67%
ROI: -23%
AVG Odds Winners: 5.56

Highest Odds Winners:

Zapit 94-1 in Oklahoma Lassie at RP 10/2019 (Tim Martin)
Black Nova 77-1 in Hoosier Sophomore Stakes at IND 6/2018 (Ron Brown)
Freakonthelead 71-1 in Pelican Stakes at DED 1/2017 (S. Flint)
Starling 67-1 in Oklahoma Juvenile at RP 10/2018 (Megan Houser)
Academic 67-1 in Woodbine Oaks at WO 6/2015 (Reade Baker)

Note: All of the aforementioned races were restricted to state-breds. The list of double-digit winners for this angle are almost entirely comprised of winners of restricted races. The app doesn't let me run a report for restricted races only, so I can't give you exact numbers, but clearly it seems more productive to fish in the state-bred stake pools for this angle.

Top trainers for MSW to Non-Graded Stakes:

Asmussen: 23 wins, 21% win rate, ROI -18%
Pletcher: 13 wins, 23%, ROI: -38%
Casse: 12 wins, 15%, ROI: -53%
Fincher: 11 wins, 18%, ROI: -40%
Wes Ward: 10 wins, 37%, ROI: +100%
Baffert: 10 wins, 48%, ROI: +36%
J. Englehart: 8 wins, 33%, ROI: +103%
O'Neill: 7 wins, 18%, ROI: +17%
John Servis: 7 wins, 33%, ROI: +31%

Wes Ward and Jeremiah Englehart both over 100% ROI with this move.

Also interesting that MSW to Non-Graded Stake is a profitable move at Saratoga over the past five years, winning 12 out of 55 times (22%) and an ROI of +37%.

Cheers,

Otis