Angle: MSW to Grade 2 (dirt)

[Easy Goer Otis]

Dunbar: I think you are correct that this probably an aberration that will regress downward over time. The MSW to G2 is hitting at a higher percentage and at longer odds for the past couple years.

But even looking at data going back 5 years to 2015, there is a huge ROI difference between G2 and G3:

MSW to G2 vs MSW to G3 since Jan 1, 2015:

% WIN: 13.37% vs 12.89%
ROI: -9% vs -38%
Arg Odds Winners: 5.82 vs 3.83

I think the basic takeaway is that you are likely to get higher odds on a maiden winner in a G2 than a G3, yet they have won at a similar percentage for the past five years.

Cheers,

Otis

PS> I am getting this data using the Angler app in Betmix. Very fun to fool around with.