Angle: MSW to Grade 2 (dirt)

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Easy Goer Otis

MSW to G1:

Since Jan 1, 2018, horses going from a Maiden Special Weight race to a Grade 1 stake (on the dirt) are 11 for 95 (12%) with an*ROI of -33%.

Avg Odds: 21.70
Avg Odds winners: 4.76
Avg finish: 4.38

Highest priced winners:

Sippican Harbor (16-1)
Mind Control (10-1)
Maxfield (6-1)

Trainers who have done it more than once:

Chad Brown (2 for 6, +$0.80)
S. Asmussen (2 for 7, +$2.10)
Bob Baffert (2 for 10, -$7.20)

MSW to G3:

Since Jan 1, 2018, horses going from a Maiden Special Weight race to a Grade 3 stake (on the dirt) are 22 for 161 (14%) with an*ROI of -39%.

Avg Odds: 21.60
Avg Odds winners: 3.45
Avg finish: 4.83

Highest priced winners:

Cairo Cat (17-1)
Independence Hall (10-1)
Lombo (9-1)
Max Player (5-1)

Trainers who have done it more than once:

Bob Baffert (3 for 6, $0.00)
Mark Casse (2 for 15, -$16.40)


While the average odds and average finish are virtually identical across all three Graded Stake levels, only the move to a G2 has been profitable over the past 25 months.

Cheers,

Otis

Thanks a bunch for posting the additional info!

I was hoping for something more promising than a -39% ROI for the Grade 3's. It's a fine line between G2 and G3. While it's possible there's something special about MSW-to-G2 that doesn't apply to MSW-to-G3 or MSW-to-G1, the complete lack of success with those moves makes it seem likely that the MSW-to-G2 result is a temporary aberration.

Thanks again for posting it.

Dunbar

[Easy Goer Otis]

Dunbar: I think you are correct that this probably an aberration that will regress downward over time. The MSW to G2 is hitting at a higher percentage and at longer odds for the past couple years.

But even looking at data going back 5 years to 2015, there is a huge ROI difference between G2 and G3:

MSW to G2 vs MSW to G3 since Jan 1, 2015:

% WIN: 13.37% vs 12.89%
ROI: -9% vs -38%
Arg Odds Winners: 5.82 vs 3.83

I think the basic takeaway is that you are likely to get higher odds on a maiden winner in a G2 than a G3, yet they have won at a similar percentage for the past five years.

Cheers,

Otis

PS> I am getting this data using the Angler app in Betmix. Very fun to fool around with.

[Dunbar]

Originally Posted by Easy Goer Otis

...But even looking at data going back 5 years to 2015, there is a huge ROI difference between G2 and G3:

MSW to G2 vs MSW to G3 since Jan 1, 2015:

% WIN: 13.37% vs 12.89%
ROI: -9% vs -38%
Arg Odds Winners: 5.82 vs 3.83

...

PS> I am getting this data using the Angler app in Betmix. Very fun to fool around with.

Otis, for the overall ROI of MSW-to-G2 from 2015 to be -9%, the 2015 through 2017 ROI must have been horrendous. Can you compare the Jan 1, 2015 through Dec 31, 2017 ROI figs for MSW-to-G2 and MSW-to-G3? I'm guessing they're pretty similar.

btw, thanks for mentioning the Betmix Angler app. I'm embarrassed to admit that I wasn't aware of it.

Dunbar

[Easy Goer Otis]

Originally Posted by Dunbar

Otis, for the overall ROI of MSW-to-G2 from 2015 to be -9%, the 2015 through 2017 ROI must have been horrendous. Can you compare the Jan 1, 2015 through Dec 31, 2017 ROI figs for MSW-to-G2 and MSW-to-G3? I'm guessing they're pretty similar.

You are correct, sir! Extremely similar. For 2015-2017:

Win %: 12.05% vs 12.43%
ROI: -37% vs -36%
AVG odds of winners were both a shade over 4-1 for that period.

How about MSW to Non-Graded Stakes since 2015?

Win %: 546 out of 4,641 11.67%
ROI: -23%
AVG Odds Winners: 5.56

Highest Odds Winners:

Zapit 94-1 in Oklahoma Lassie at RP 10/2019 (Tim Martin)
Black Nova 77-1 in Hoosier Sophomore Stakes at IND 6/2018 (Ron Brown)
Freakonthelead 71-1 in Pelican Stakes at DED 1/2017 (S. Flint)
Starling 67-1 in Oklahoma Juvenile at RP 10/2018 (Megan Houser)
Academic 67-1 in Woodbine Oaks at WO 6/2015 (Reade Baker)

Note: All of the aforementioned races were restricted to state-breds. The list of double-digit winners for this angle are almost entirely comprised of winners of restricted races. The app doesn't let me run a report for restricted races only, so I can't give you exact numbers, but clearly it seems more productive to fish in the state-bred stake pools for this angle.

Top trainers for MSW to Non-Graded Stakes:

Asmussen: 23 wins, 21% win rate, ROI -18%
Pletcher: 13 wins, 23%, ROI: -38%
Casse: 12 wins, 15%, ROI: -53%
Fincher: 11 wins, 18%, ROI: -40%
Wes Ward: 10 wins, 37%, ROI: +100%
Baffert: 10 wins, 48%, ROI: +36%
J. Englehart: 8 wins, 33%, ROI: +103%
O'Neill: 7 wins, 18%, ROI: +17%
John Servis: 7 wins, 33%, ROI: +31%

Wes Ward and Jeremiah Englehart both over 100% ROI with this move.

Also interesting that MSW to Non-Graded Stake is a profitable move at Saratoga over the past five years, winning 12 out of 55 times (22%) and an ROI of +37%.

Cheers,

Otis

[Dunbar]

Thanks for the additional figs, Otis. The fact that the 2015-2017 MSW-to-Gr2 stats aren't consistent with the 2018-2020 stats makes it even more likely that those latter good results were an aberration.

The other stuff is interesting, but hard to make use of. With just 2-3 races per year fitting the positive EV angles, it's too hard to test going forward.

I can tell you're having fun with the app. Keep looking! You might find a hidden gem.