7/29 (SAR): Vanderbilt (G1), Bwlg Grn, Jim Dandy, Amsterdam (G2's)

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

But apparently you get killed for taking a shot with a talented horse

Classic short-term over long-term thinking. How many horses went from breaking their maiden late in their 3yo year in their debut to winning a Grade 1 at 9f or more in their second start?

Did Pavel show signs of talent in the Jim Dandy? Sure. Was it all for naught? Of course. He ran like a horse that had never been two turns before and found wanting in the stretch, ultimately finishing off the board.

At best, if the plan was to see if he had any talent (did anyone who saw his maiden win need this?) it was a completely wasted effort. At worst, if he comes out of the race less than 100% (was his debut delayed for a physical issue?) the race may have ruined his career.

This is nothing new though for Reddam, who's proficiency at ruining careers has move into the realm of an art form.

--while the same people probably complain about short fields.

Classic short-term over long-term thinking. If Pavel's career is shortened in any way by blowing his wad in this race, then guess what, instead of the prospect a 4-horse Jim Dandy, there will be perhaps 10 or more races over the longterm that won't have Pavel in it.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Classic short-term over long-term thinking. How many horses went from breaking their maiden late in their 3yo year in their debut to winning a Grade 1 at 9f or more in their second start?

Did Pavel show signs of talent in the Jim Dandy? Sure. Was it all for naught? Of course. He ran like a horse that had never been two turns before and found wanting in the stretch, ultimately finishing off the board.

At best, if the plan was to see if he had any talent (did anyone who saw his maiden win need this?) it was a completely wasted effort. At worst, if he comes out of the race less than 100% (was his debut delayed for a physical issue?) the race may have ruined his career.

This is nothing new though for Reddam, who's proficiency at ruining careers has move into the realm of an art form.

Classic short-term over long-term thinking. If Pavel's career is shortened in any way by blowing his wad in this race, then guess what, instead of the prospect a 4-horse Jim Dandy, there will be perhaps 10 or more races over the longterm that won't have Pavel in it.

If, if, if. You're already calling the horse's career dead in order to justify a bad snarky opinion. They took a shot and he hardly disgraced himself. The game needs more owners willing to try something unorthodox, not fewer.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

If, if, if. You're already calling the horse's career dead in order to justify a bad snarky opinion. They took a shot and he hardly disgraced himself. The game needs more owners willing to try something unorthodox, not fewer.

What exactly was the "bad opinion"? That is was a dumb spot to enter the horse? He didn't hit the board in a 5-horse field. I don't need to predict that his long-term career is compromised in order to justify the original opinion. The actual results of the Jim Dandy are more than adequate.

Instead of witnessing an also-ran performance (however heroic or otherwise) in the Jim Dandy, we might have seen him crush an allowance race as a springboard to something like the Allen Jerkens or El Cajon before "taking a shot" in a major route race.

Now the future is in disarray. My guess is Reddam watched the race with the same rose-colored lenses you did ("he almost beat TWO classic winners!"), and will target the Pennsylvania Derby if not the Travers. Should be good for another middle move and fade job. Good luck.

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

What exactly was the "bad opinion"? That is was a dumb spot to enter the horse? He didn't hit the board in a 5-horse field. I don't need to predict that his long-term career is compromised in order to justify the original opinion. The actual results of the Jim Dandy are more than adequate.

Instead of witnessing an also-ran performance (however heroic or otherwise) in the Jim Dandy, we might have seen him crush an allowance race as a springboard to something like the Allen Jerkens or El Cajon before "taking a shot" in a major route race.

Now the future is in disarray. My guess is Reddam watched the race with the same rose-colored lenses you did ("he almost beat TWO classic winners!"), and will target the Pennsylvania Derby if not the Travers. Should be good for another middle move and fade job. Good luck.

Yeah he definitely should've been pointing for the El Cajon instead.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

Yeah he definitely should've been pointing for the El Cajon instead.

You mean a sensible race he might actually win?

Graded stakes winners Private Zone, Jimmy Creed, Fed Biz, Fury Kapcori, Holy Lute, Gimme Da Lute, Conquest Two Step, and Toowindytohaulrox all started in that race in the last few years.

Never mind that Accelerate, who just knocked off Arrogate in the San Diego, won the race last year in...wait for it... the start following his maiden victory. He won a graded stakes right after that and then placed in the BC Dirt Mile.

[RHT2004]

From what i have seen the last 2 days, unless Bob is sending West Coast or American Anthem, Good Samaritan is going to win the Travers.

[knickslions2]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

From what i have seen the last 2 days, unless Bob is sending West Coast or American Anthem, Good Samaritan is going to win the Travers.

Tapwrit and classic Empire will have something to say in that race