American Pharoah...

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind

Yeah, critical analysis is way overrated, especially in horse racing. Silly me.

Is it only critical analysis when you, or someone that agrees with you, performs said analysis?

I thought my breakdown of Upstarts career as a close up stalker vs the perceived myth of him being a deep closer was pretty analytical and blew that myth out of the water.

I used observations, past performances and logic to illustrate my conclusion.

You? You just continued with your Zen chant that I'm biased, summarily dismissing the FACTS I presented to you, instead of showing me how I'm wrong.

That is often the tactic used by either someone without a leg to stand on, or someone who is threatened by evidence that threatens a tightly held belief.

I'm going with the latter.

Mostly.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Is it only critical analysis when you, or someone that agrees with you, performs said analysis?

I thought my breakdown of Upstarts career as a close up stalker vs the perceived myth of him being a deep closer was pretty analytical and blew that myth out of the water.

I used observations, past performances and logic to illustrate my conclusion.

You? You just continued with your Zen chant that I'm biased, summarily dismissing the FACTS I presented to you, instead of showing me how I'm wrong.

That is often the tactic used by either someone without a leg to stand on, or someone who is threatened by evidence that threatens a tightly held belief.

I'm going with the latter.

Mostly.

You know its pretty silly to think that BTW is threatened by evidence, who watching and studies racing as much as he does?. He has bitch slapped me through the years when I post something stupid and if you listen to him on At The Races he does it to Steve as well. You think CJ, Doug Steve BTW and others dont disagree? They disagree all the time but that doesnt mean they less right in there view just means they dont see the data the same way.

Who could have been more wrong about the Derby then Doug? Doug is friggin world class in his knowledge of racing. Doesnt mean he wasnt dreadfully wrong in one stupid race. Beyer sees the race at one speef fig CJ sees it a bit faster, both are highly credible.

You are better off listening and learning why you are wrong then trying to argue points that dont work

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by freddymo

You know its pretty silly to think that BTW is threatened by evidence, who watching and studies racing as much as he does?. He has bitch slapped me through the years when I post something stupid and if you listen to him on At The Races he does it to Steve as well. You think CJ, Doug Steve BTW and others dont disagree? They disagree all the time but that doesnt mean they less right in there view just means they dont see the data the same way.

Who could have been more wrong about the Derby then Doug? Doug is friggin world class in his knowledge of racing. Doesnt mean he wasnt dreadfully wrong in one stupid race. Beyer sees the race at one speef fig CJ sees it a bit faster, both are highly credible.

You are better off listening and learning why you are wrong then trying to argue points that dont work

I have a wide open mind, I admit when I'm wrong, and I rarely get defensive when confronted with evidence that I'm wrong. It's something I aim for, to always learn.

On to the rest of your post. Why is it that it is me that is wrong, when we are interpreting this data Fred?? How am I arguing points that don't work? How am I wrong? I gave Serling a more detailed breakdown of how I interpret Upstart's career, racing style, etc., in an honest attempt at a two way dialog.

What I got in return was a quick dismissal by saying that I'm biased. That to me, is being closed minded and an unwillingness to possibly admit to being wrong on his part.

I went back and watched all of Upstarts races. I now have a better appreciation for the horse, but at the same time, it confirmed what I already felt about him. He's a presser that lays up close to the lead and probably prefers a one turn type of race say from 7/8ths to 8.5 furlongs in distance.

This notion that he is some sort of stone cold closer is completely unsubstantiated by both his PPs and his actual racing style. Hell, in his first few starts, the jock is trying to get him to rate and Upstart fights the jockey very noticeably!

I say this with no sarcasm. I'd love to have someone illustrate how I am wrong with this.

Of course, nobody will.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I have a wide open mind, I admit when I'm wrong, and I rarely get defensive when confronted with evidence that I'm wrong. It's something I aim for, to always learn.

On to the rest of your post. Why is it that it is me that is wrong, when we are interpreting this data Fred?? How am I arguing points that don't work? How am I wrong? I gave Serling a more detailed breakdown of how I interpret Upstart's career, racing style, etc., in an honest attempt at a two way dialog.

What I got in return was a quick dismissal by saying that I'm biased. That to me, is being closed minded and an unwillingness to possibly admit to being wrong on his part.

I went back and watched all of Upstarts races. I now have a better appreciation for the horse, but at the same time, it confirmed what I already felt about him. He's a presser that lays up close to the lead and probably prefers a one turn type of race say from 7/8ths to 8.5 furlongs in distance.

This notion that he is some sort of stone cold closer is completely unsubstantiated by both his PPs and his actual racing style. Hell, in his first few starts, the jock is trying to get him to rate and Upstart fights the jockey very noticeably!

I say this with no sarcasm. I'd love to have someone illustrate how I am wrong with this.

Of course, nobody will.

First few starts are not necessarily a horses true indication of style and ability right?

I doubt BTW thinks or Nick think he is a stone cold closer I believe what both think are that he he is best suited to make one well timed run. I am not of opinion BTW or Nick think the colt is a Zenyatta type last to first colt.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by freddymo

First few starts are not necessarily a horses true indication of style and ability right?

I doubt BTW thinks or Nick think he is a stone cold closer I believe what both think are that he he is best suited to make one well timed run. I am not of opinion BTW or Nick think the colt is a Zenyatta type last to first colt.

Correct, I highly discount the first few races. I mention it only to further demonstrate that the horse does not want to be far back off the lead.

And yeah, I realize the fan club is not making him out to be a Zenyatta type of closer. I keep bringing that up because they said he was taken out of his style, in various races.

The reality is quite different from their claims though. He pretty much runs the same style every time.

I still see no evidence that those guys are right.

[ateamstupid]

This semantics argument about his running style is just one big diversion from the indefensibly asinine opinion that arguably the fastest horse in the crop on paper is best suited to NY-bred races.

[blackthroatedwind]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

This semantics argument about his running style is just one big diversion from the indefensibly asinine opinion that arguably the fastest horse in the crop on paper is best suited to NY-bred races.

This.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by ateamstupid

This semantics argument about his running style is just one big diversion from the indefensibly asinine opinion that arguably the fastest horse in the crop on paper is best suited to NY-bred races.

No, it isn't. The NY bred comment was, I thought, an obviously little sarcastic poke at his fan boys. While I do feel he'd make quick work in NY Bred races, I think he's more than capable of showing well in races like the King's Bishop.

And there is no argument at all about him being the fastest horse in the crop, on paper.

That comment or belief is what is comically an indefensible and asinine opinion.

My argument about his running style was a direct response to those that over evaluate his performance in the Champagne and BCJ.

Nice try though.

[freddymo]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

Correct, I highly discount the first few races. I mention it only to further demonstrate that the horse does not want to be far back off the lead.

And yeah, I realize the fan club is not making him out to be a Zenyatta type of closer. I keep bringing that up because they said he was taken out of his style, in various races.

The reality is quite different from their claims though. He pretty much runs the same style every time.

I still see no evidence that those guys are right.

I dont want to speak for BTW but he is typically right not always but more often then not he is on the money. Upstart was dreadful in Derby, I used him because of what he had done on the track which was about as much as any other in field. He was 30/1 he should have been 15/1 and I wonder if world was out he was off form or some other backstretch nonsense?

The derby is a hard race to take much away from this year. CJ thinks pace was solid other respectable outlets think it was less then stellar? I use CJ to guide me on this stuff because he too is more right then wrong. Doesnt mean he is right this time but I believe he is. Upstart didnt run so trying to reverse engineer a decent opinion on what he wants to ultimately do after that performance is a waste.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I dont want to speak for BTW but he is typically right not always but more often then not he is on the money. Upstart was dreadful in Derby, I used him because of what he had done on the track which was about as much as any other in field. He was 30/1 he should have been 15/1 and I wonder if world was out he was off form or some other backstretch nonsense?

The derby is a hard race to take much away from this year. CJ thinks pace was solid other respectable outlets think it was less then stellar? I use CJ to guide me on this stuff because he too is more right then wrong. Doesnt mean he is right this time but I believe he is. Upstart didnt run so trying to reverse engineer a decent opinion on what he wants to ultimately do after that performance is a waste.

My take on Upstarts Derby performance is the only one that it can be.

It's a throwout.

CJ is exactly right about the pace. Since when is 47.1 a slow pace for 10F for early season three year olds that have never gone that far?

[ateamstupid]

Originally Posted by freddymo

I dont want to speak for BTW but he is typically right not always but more often then not he is on the money. Upstart was dreadful in Derby, I used him because of what he had done on the track which was about as much as any other in field. He was 30/1 he should have been 15/1 and I wonder if world was out he was off form or some other backstretch nonsense?

Upstart went off at 15-1 in the Derby. He actually took a ton of late money to drop from the 19-1 he was holding at.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

I went back and watched all of Upstarts races. I now have a better appreciation for the horse, but at the same time, it confirmed what I already felt about him. He's a presser that lays up close to the lead and probably prefers a one turn type of race say from 7/8ths to 8.5 furlongs in distance.

This notion that he is some sort of stone cold closer is completely unsubstantiated by both his PPs and his actual racing style. Hell, in his first few starts, the jock is trying to get him to rate and Upstart fights the jockey very noticeably!

I'd love to have someone illustrate how I am wrong with this.

Of course, nobody will.

Only in the Holy Bull and Florida Derby can one say that Upstart was pressing the pace.

Coincidentally, both races had pedestrian early fractions.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RolloTomasi

Only in the Holy Bull and Florida Derby can one say that Upstart was pressing the pace.

Coincidentally, both races had pedestrian early fractions.

He's always within five lengths of the lead, usually significantly less (at the half).

If not pressing, then stalking, if you want to play it that way Rollo.

Coincidentally, the race he was allegedly taken out of his game in, namely the BCJ, he was the furthest back from the leaders. His post was almost certainly responsible for that.

As for the Holy Bull and Florida Derby, I am not confident that the pace was that slow, as that track was not the autobahn it's historically been over the years.

[RHT2004]

I don't understand why the NYB comment is such a big deal. Would it be the worst thing in the world to jog in a NYB race, that race being used as a confidence booster for him? Have him primed for Saratoga? If he was mine, and healthy after the Derby debacle I would point him to the Belmont.

[Indian Charlie]

Originally Posted by RHT2004

I don't understand why the NYB comment is such a big deal. Would it be the worst thing in the world to jog in a NYB race, that race being used as a confidence booster for him? Have him primed for Saratoga? If he was mine, and healthy after the Derby debacle I would point him to the Belmont.

The big deal for them is that they are emotionally invested in the horse and are lacking objectivity.

Something I'm being accused of despite my saying that AP was less impressive than I had expected.

[RolloTomasi]

Originally Posted by Indian Charlie

He's always within five lengths of the lead, usually significantly less (at the half).

5 lengths? Shouldn't a presser by definition be quite a bit closer to the pace? Like, within a length?

If not pressing, then stalking, if you want to play it that way Rollo.

Stalking sounds better...if we are referring to his Florida races.

Coincidentally, the race he was allegedly taken out of his game in, namely the BCJ, he was the furthest back from the leaders. His post was almost certainly responsible for that.

In the BC, the horse was hustled out of the gate and IMO was pushed to move early into a fast pace down the backstretch.

In general, this horse always seems to be asked to move too soon. It probably made sense in the Florida Derby, with Materiality trying to sneak away.

Also note his early position in each of his races. 6th, 5th, 5th, 8th, 3rd, 5th, 3rd. He is always behind several horses entering the backstretch.

I'm not sure its totally by rider design as the horse descends from A.P. Indy, who is notorious for grinders (unfortunately, I think Freddy posted something similar) and perhaps the colt is hard to get "in gear".

He'd be an interesting one to see held back to make one run the last quarter.

As for the Holy Bull and Florida Derby, I am not confident that the pace was that slow, as that track was not the autobahn it's historically been over the years.

The Holy Bull card seemed to have solid 1/2 mile fractions on the undercard. The Florida Derby not so much, with only a few other dirt races, but again, it made sense to keep Materiality in range.