Derby Trail Forums

Go Back   Derby Trail Forums > Main Forum > The Paddock
Register FAQ Members List Calendar Today's Posts

Reply
 
Thread Tools Display Modes
  #141  
Old 05-05-2015, 08:24 PM
Rudeboyelvis Rudeboyelvis is offline
Belmont Park
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Posts: 7,440
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
That was a thread kill.
No idea what happened..it's like one of those proton thread bombs that leaves everything intact, yet sucks all of the collective brain cells into a black hole.

I don't get how some people will look for every excuse in the book to discount this horse's effort to validate their own biases. I imagine if I were a Dortmund fan, perhaps I'd feel the same - I don't know. I'm not really even a fan of this horse.

That said, the horse has done absolutely nothing wrong. Ran further than anyone else, persisted, won the friggin Derby. Somehow he's unworthy because Dortmund had a belly ache for a few hours 2 weeks prior, Upstart had a bad day, Firing Line purportedly didn't switch leads, Materiality had a bad break, etc.

It's silly. I only hope he gets even more of a pace and more dirt in his face. Of course if he draws outside and no one goes with him, that's on him as well.
Reply With Quote
  #142  
Old 05-05-2015, 08:55 PM
Indian Charlie's Avatar
Indian Charlie Indian Charlie is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Southern Maine
Posts: 8,708
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Rudeboyelvis View Post
No idea what happened..it's like one of those proton thread bombs that leaves everything intact, yet sucks all of the collective brain cells into a black hole.

I don't get how some people will look for every excuse in the book to discount this horse's effort to validate their own biases. I imagine if I were a Dortmund fan, perhaps I'd feel the same - I don't know. I'm not really even a fan of this horse.

That said, the horse has done absolutely nothing wrong. Ran further than anyone else, persisted, won the friggin Derby. Somehow he's unworthy because Dortmund had a belly ache for a few hours 2 weeks prior, Upstart had a bad day, Firing Line purportedly didn't switch leads, Materiality had a bad break, etc.

It's silly. I only hope he gets even more of a pace and more dirt in his face. Of course if he draws outside and no one goes with him, that's on him as well.
The only non biased people here are those who bet against Pharoah.
Reply With Quote
  #143  
Old 05-05-2015, 09:01 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,938
Default

Yeah, critical analysis is way overrated, especially in horse racing. Silly me.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
  #144  
Old 05-05-2015, 09:50 PM
Indian Charlie's Avatar
Indian Charlie Indian Charlie is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Southern Maine
Posts: 8,708
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
Yeah, critical analysis is way overrated, especially in horse racing. Silly me.
Is it only critical analysis when you, or someone that agrees with you, performs said analysis?

I thought my breakdown of Upstarts career as a close up stalker vs the perceived myth of him being a deep closer was pretty analytical and blew that myth out of the water.

I used observations, past performances and logic to illustrate my conclusion.

You? You just continued with your Zen chant that I'm biased, summarily dismissing the FACTS I presented to you, instead of showing me how I'm wrong.

That is often the tactic used by either someone without a leg to stand on, or someone who is threatened by evidence that threatens a tightly held belief.

I'm going with the latter.

Mostly.
Reply With Quote
  #145  
Old 05-05-2015, 10:14 PM
cakes44's Avatar
cakes44 cakes44 is offline
The Curragh
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 2,745
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
You have to base your analysis on what you saw...not what you wish you saw. What we saw was a horse getting a very good trip, and being ridden very hard, that proved best. Hey, there's no shame in that...but he ran his race, handled the track, etc. He's a very good horse. He's not a super horse...at least not yet.

He's also a horse that missed the biggest 2YO race of the year, in his back yard, and was then off for five months. He has returned to run three races of 3 7/16 miles in distance in seven weeks time...and needs to run another 2 11/16 miles worth of races over the next five weeks. That's 5 races and over 6 miles in distance in just 12 weeks. I surely wish the connections the best of luck, and certainly hope they win in two weeks, but I'm also a betting man....and there is NO way I would bet on American Pharoah winning the Triple Crown at any kind of short price.
I'm with you. Some "super horse" would have opened up big time in the stretch. I had AP and won so that was great, maybe not as great as Burch, but count me as less impressed by AP after the Derby than before.
Reply With Quote
  #146  
Old 05-05-2015, 10:57 PM
Aly-Sheba's Avatar
Aly-Sheba Aly-Sheba is offline
Turf Paradise
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Out West
Posts: 227
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by blackthroatedwind View Post
You have to base your analysis on what you saw...not what you wish you saw. What we saw was a horse getting a very good trip, and being ridden very hard, that proved best. Hey, there's no shame in that...but he ran his race, handled the track, etc. He's a very good horse. He's not a super horse...at least not yet.

He's also a horse that missed the biggest 2YO race of the year, in his back yard, and was then off for five months. He has returned to run three races of 3 7/16 miles in distance in seven weeks time...and needs to run another 2 11/16 miles worth of races over the next five weeks. That's 5 races and over 6 miles in distance in just 12 weeks. I surely wish the connections the best of luck, and certainly hope they win in two weeks, but I'm also a betting man....and there is NO way I would bet on American Pharoah winning the Triple Crown at any kind of short price.
I'm not comparing AP to Seattle Slew at this point and its been 28 years, but SS had almost 5 months off before his first race as 3yr old. and ran 4 times in less then 4 weeks while winning the Derby.
Reply With Quote
  #147  
Old 05-05-2015, 11:15 PM
Aly-Sheba's Avatar
Aly-Sheba Aly-Sheba is offline
Turf Paradise
 
Join Date: Oct 2012
Location: Out West
Posts: 227
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba View Post
I'm not comparing AP to Seattle Slew at this point and its been 28 years, but SS had almost 5 months off before his first race as 3yr old. and ran 4 times in less then 4 weeks while winning the Derby.
Sorry 38 years, time flies!!
Reply With Quote
  #148  
Old 05-05-2015, 11:20 PM
pointman's Avatar
pointman pointman is offline
Saratoga
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 15,693
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RHT2004 View Post
That was a thread kill.
As usual your instinct is spot on.
Reply With Quote
  #149  
Old 05-06-2015, 09:16 AM
RolloTomasi's Avatar
RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,612
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Aly-Sheba View Post
I'm not comparing AP to Seattle Slew at this point and its been 28 years, but SS had almost 5 months off before his first race as 3yr old. and ran 4 times in less then 4 weeks while winning the Derby.
It's uncanny, but from March onwards in their respective 3yo years, American Pharoah's career closely parallels that of War Emblem.

Two facile wins leading up to the Derby; slow-paced merry-go-round Derby; Victor Espinoza aboard...

The only difference is War Emblem ran quite a bit faster.
Reply With Quote
  #150  
Old 05-06-2015, 09:30 AM
MaTH716's Avatar
MaTH716 MaTH716 is offline
Flemington
 
Join Date: Nov 2006
Location: Jersey
Posts: 11,438
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
It's uncanny, but from March onwards in their respective 3yo years, American Pharoah's career closely parallels that of War Emblem.

Two facile wins leading up to the Derby; slow-paced merry-go-round Derby; Victor Espinoza aboard...

The only difference is War Emblem ran quite a bit faster.
And paid $43.00 to win.
__________________
Felix Unger talking to Oscar Madison: "Your horse could finish third by 20 lengths and they still pay you? And you have been losing money for all these years?!"
Reply With Quote
  #151  
Old 05-06-2015, 09:31 AM
freddymo freddymo is offline
Belmont Park
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 7,091
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie View Post
Is it only critical analysis when you, or someone that agrees with you, performs said analysis?

I thought my breakdown of Upstarts career as a close up stalker vs the perceived myth of him being a deep closer was pretty analytical and blew that myth out of the water.

I used observations, past performances and logic to illustrate my conclusion.

You? You just continued with your Zen chant that I'm biased, summarily dismissing the FACTS I presented to you, instead of showing me how I'm wrong.

That is often the tactic used by either someone without a leg to stand on, or someone who is threatened by evidence that threatens a tightly held belief.

I'm going with the latter.

Mostly.
You know its pretty silly to think that BTW is threatened by evidence, who watching and studies racing as much as he does?. He has bitch slapped me through the years when I post something stupid and if you listen to him on At The Races he does it to Steve as well. You think CJ, Doug Steve BTW and others dont disagree? They disagree all the time but that doesnt mean they less right in there view just means they dont see the data the same way.

Who could have been more wrong about the Derby then Doug? Doug is friggin world class in his knowledge of racing. Doesnt mean he wasnt dreadfully wrong in one stupid race. Beyer sees the race at one speef fig CJ sees it a bit faster, both are highly credible.

You are better off listening and learning why you are wrong then trying to argue points that dont work
Reply With Quote
  #152  
Old 05-06-2015, 09:37 AM
SundayStar's Avatar
SundayStar SundayStar is offline
Golden Gate
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 380
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
It's uncanny, but from March onwards in their respective 3yo years, American Pharoah's career closely parallels that of War Emblem.

Two facile wins leading up to the Derby; slow-paced merry-go-round Derby; Victor Espinoza aboard...

The only difference is War Emblem ran quite a bit faster.
War Emblem never won a race where he didn't go wire to wire. American Pharaoh has won stalking the pace.
Reply With Quote
  #153  
Old 05-06-2015, 09:50 AM
RolloTomasi's Avatar
RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,612
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SundayStar View Post
War Emblem never won a race where he didn't go wire to wire. American Pharaoh has won stalking the pace.
Not true. War Emblem won an allowance at 2 from mid-pack. He also did not have the lead for the first 3/4s of the Preakness, albeit under stout restraint by Espinoza.
Reply With Quote
  #154  
Old 05-06-2015, 10:23 AM
SundayStar's Avatar
SundayStar SundayStar is offline
Golden Gate
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 380
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by RolloTomasi View Post
Not true. War Emblem won an allowance at 2 from mid-pack. He also did not have the lead for the first 3/4s of the Preakness, albeit under stout restraint by Espinoza.
yeah, in the preakness he was all of a head off the lead. the point is, War Emblem was a need the lead type of horse. American Pharaoh has shown he can sit off the lead by at least a length or two as well as win on the lead. he's more versatile and adaptable.
Reply With Quote
  #155  
Old 05-06-2015, 10:33 AM
RolloTomasi's Avatar
RolloTomasi RolloTomasi is offline
Oriental Park
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Posts: 3,612
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by SundayStar View Post
yeah, in the preakness he was all of a head off the lead. the point is, War Emblem was a need the lead type of horse. American Pharaoh has shown he can sit off the lead by at least a length or two as well as win on the lead. he's more versatile and adaptable.
Well, actually War Emblem was at least a length or more off the lead during the 1st quarter mile of the Preakness.

But thanks for clarifying the goalposts...and ignoring the 2yo allowance race.
Reply With Quote
  #156  
Old 05-06-2015, 11:36 AM
Indian Charlie's Avatar
Indian Charlie Indian Charlie is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Southern Maine
Posts: 8,708
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
You know its pretty silly to think that BTW is threatened by evidence, who watching and studies racing as much as he does?. He has bitch slapped me through the years when I post something stupid and if you listen to him on At The Races he does it to Steve as well. You think CJ, Doug Steve BTW and others dont disagree? They disagree all the time but that doesnt mean they less right in there view just means they dont see the data the same way.

Who could have been more wrong about the Derby then Doug? Doug is friggin world class in his knowledge of racing. Doesnt mean he wasnt dreadfully wrong in one stupid race. Beyer sees the race at one speef fig CJ sees it a bit faster, both are highly credible.

You are better off listening and learning why you are wrong then trying to argue points that dont work
I have a wide open mind, I admit when I'm wrong, and I rarely get defensive when confronted with evidence that I'm wrong. It's something I aim for, to always learn.

On to the rest of your post. Why is it that it is me that is wrong, when we are interpreting this data Fred?? How am I arguing points that don't work? How am I wrong? I gave Serling a more detailed breakdown of how I interpret Upstart's career, racing style, etc., in an honest attempt at a two way dialog.

What I got in return was a quick dismissal by saying that I'm biased. That to me, is being closed minded and an unwillingness to possibly admit to being wrong on his part.

I went back and watched all of Upstarts races. I now have a better appreciation for the horse, but at the same time, it confirmed what I already felt about him. He's a presser that lays up close to the lead and probably prefers a one turn type of race say from 7/8ths to 8.5 furlongs in distance.

This notion that he is some sort of stone cold closer is completely unsubstantiated by both his PPs and his actual racing style. Hell, in his first few starts, the jock is trying to get him to rate and Upstart fights the jockey very noticeably!

I say this with no sarcasm. I'd love to have someone illustrate how I am wrong with this.

Of course, nobody will.
Reply With Quote
  #157  
Old 05-06-2015, 12:02 PM
freddymo freddymo is offline
Belmont Park
 
Join Date: Sep 2007
Posts: 7,091
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by Indian Charlie View Post
I have a wide open mind, I admit when I'm wrong, and I rarely get defensive when confronted with evidence that I'm wrong. It's something I aim for, to always learn.

On to the rest of your post. Why is it that it is me that is wrong, when we are interpreting this data Fred?? How am I arguing points that don't work? How am I wrong? I gave Serling a more detailed breakdown of how I interpret Upstart's career, racing style, etc., in an honest attempt at a two way dialog.

What I got in return was a quick dismissal by saying that I'm biased. That to me, is being closed minded and an unwillingness to possibly admit to being wrong on his part.

I went back and watched all of Upstarts races. I now have a better appreciation for the horse, but at the same time, it confirmed what I already felt about him. He's a presser that lays up close to the lead and probably prefers a one turn type of race say from 7/8ths to 8.5 furlongs in distance.

This notion that he is some sort of stone cold closer is completely unsubstantiated by both his PPs and his actual racing style. Hell, in his first few starts, the jock is trying to get him to rate and Upstart fights the jockey very noticeably!

I say this with no sarcasm. I'd love to have someone illustrate how I am wrong with this.

Of course, nobody will.
First few starts are not necessarily a horses true indication of style and ability right?

I doubt BTW thinks or Nick think he is a stone cold closer I believe what both think are that he he is best suited to make one well timed run. I am not of opinion BTW or Nick think the colt is a Zenyatta type last to first colt.
Reply With Quote
  #158  
Old 05-06-2015, 12:06 PM
Indian Charlie's Avatar
Indian Charlie Indian Charlie is offline
Goodwood
 
Join Date: Mar 2007
Location: Southern Maine
Posts: 8,708
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by freddymo View Post
First few starts are not necessarily a horses true indication of style and ability right?

I doubt BTW thinks or Nick think he is a stone cold closer I believe what both think are that he he is best suited to make one well timed run. I am not of opinion BTW or Nick think the colt is a Zenyatta type last to first colt.
Correct, I highly discount the first few races. I mention it only to further demonstrate that the horse does not want to be far back off the lead.

And yeah, I realize the fan club is not making him out to be a Zenyatta type of closer. I keep bringing that up because they said he was taken out of his style, in various races.

The reality is quite different from their claims though. He pretty much runs the same style every time.

I still see no evidence that those guys are right.
Reply With Quote
  #159  
Old 05-06-2015, 12:10 PM
ateamstupid's Avatar
ateamstupid ateamstupid is offline
Super Mod.. and Super Fly
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Location: Brooklyn, NY
Posts: 13,036
Default

This semantics argument about his running style is just one big diversion from the indefensibly asinine opinion that arguably the fastest horse in the crop on paper is best suited to NY-bred races.
Reply With Quote
  #160  
Old 05-06-2015, 12:19 PM
blackthroatedwind blackthroatedwind is offline
Jerome Park
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 9,938
Default

Quote:
Originally Posted by ateamstupid View Post
This semantics argument about his running style is just one big diversion from the indefensibly asinine opinion that arguably the fastest horse in the crop on paper is best suited to NY-bred races.
This.
__________________
Just more nebulous nonsense from BBB
Reply With Quote
Reply



Posting Rules
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

vB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Forum Jump


All times are GMT -5. The time now is 07:00 AM.


Powered by vBulletin® Version 3.6.8
Copyright ©2000 - 2025, Jelsoft Enterprises Ltd.