Derby Favorite

[somerfrost]

For those who care about such things, dosage for some contenders:
Maftool...4-6-16-0-0 2.25 0.54
Upstart...7-5-12-0-0 3.00 0.79
Dortmund...4-5-13-0-0 2.38 0.59
Carpe Diem...4-6-24-0-0 1.83 0.41
American Pharoah...2-3-3-0-0 4.33 0.88
Mubtaahij...1-0-2-0-1 1.00 0.00
Frosted...6-9-14-1-0 2.75 0.67
Materiality...2-2-6-0-0 2.33 0.60
International Star...12-5-11-0-0 4.09 1.04
Firing Line...5-1-6-0-0 3.00 0.92

[somerfrost]

PF's for same (the lower the better), I prefer these to Beyer figs:
Maftool...-50
Upstart...-61
Dortmund...-54
Carpe Diem...-62
American Pharoah...-49
Mubtaahij...-70
Frosted...-63
Materiality...-66
International Star...-51
Firing line...-48

[Kitan]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

For those who care about such things, dosage for some contenders:
Maftool...4-6-16-0-0 2.25 0.54
Upstart...7-5-12-0-0 3.00 0.79
Dortmund...4-5-13-0-0 2.38 0.59
Carpe Diem...4-6-24-0-0 1.83 0.41
American Pharoah...2-3-3-0-0 4.33 0.88
Mubtaahij...1-0-2-0-1 1.00 0.00
Frosted...6-9-14-1-0 2.75 0.67
Materiality...2-2-6-0-0 2.33 0.60
International Star...12-5-11-0-0 4.09 1.04
Firing Line...5-1-6-0-0 3.00 0.92

I use this as a big factor. I mentioned before that you'd have to go back to Count Fleet to find a winner with a remotely similar profile to Mubtaahij. Is it a meaningless stat? Maybe. But with so many other questions about him...and no, it's not that I have an agenda against this horse. It was one of the reasons I didn't like him initially.

[Alabama Stakes]

Is prospect park a dual qualifier?

[robfla]

Originally Posted by Alabama Stakes

Is prospect park a dual qualifier?

http://www.derbytrail.com/forums/sho...5&postcount=44

[somerfrost]

Some Derby angles that still can be considered....many have recently gone by the wayside with modern breeding and training procedures but a few remain relevant to the point of consideration with other factors:
1. Winner will have 5 or more lifetime starts prior to Derby
2. Winner will have at least one 3yo prep of 8f or longer.
3. Winner will have at least one race at 2yo.
4. Winner will have at least 12 points in DP (Animal Kingdom went against this in 2011 with only 8...before that Middleground in 1950 had 12.
Obviously none of these should be viewed as absolute and are useful after considering all other factors such as form and breeding.

[richard burch]

you can talk all you want about the others but it will be only one of the two horses that will win this race.

[Thunder Gulch]

Originally Posted by somerfrost

Some Derby angles that still can be considered....many have recently gone by the wayside with modern breeding and training procedures but a few remain relevant to the point of consideration with other factors:
1. Winner will have 5 or more lifetime starts prior to Derby
2. Winner will have at least one 3yo prep of 8f or longer.
3. Winner will have at least one race at 2yo.
4. Winner will have at least 12 points in DP (Animal Kingdom went against this in 2011 with only 8...before that Middleground in 1950 had 12.
Obviously none of these should be viewed as absolute and are useful after considering all other factors such as form and breeding.

1. Losing relevancy after Big Brown and new prep schedules.
2. Irrelevant because you probably can't eliminate 3 entrants in the past 5 years.
3. I believe this will fall in the next decade, though not this year. Again, it's of minimal value because we only see maybe 1 a year try it, and that one is typically a brilliant miler.
4. Probably a good pedigree angle and more useful than the dosage angle in 2015. 20 years ago DI could eliminate contenders, but now most will qualify. You have to take a stand against American Pharoah if you're a Dr. Roman disciple.